Tuesday, April 1, 2014

Trading Week: April wk 1

Tue 1st April (7.30 pm)
GBP: PMI data was weaker than expected. Thus, the Cable and GBP/JPY might pause, or even pull back a bit further, before any potential bullish continuation.

Tue 1st April (6.15 pm)
S&P500: Today marks the first day of the trading month and these days are often, but not always, bullish for 'risk on'. If so, would this be enough to trigger a triangle breakout for the S&P500?

Indices: the USDX is looking a bit weak just now whilst the EURX seems to be picking up some steam:


TS Signals:
E/J: this TS signal keeps going and I'm thinking that bullish continuation would see the 143 level as a possible target, that, and the triangle trend line:

E/J 4 hr:

E/J daily:

Gold: I'm wary here, especially if the USDX breaks down as this could see Gold rally: 

A/U: this hasn't moved too far post RBA:

Other FX:
U/J: this wasn't a fully valid TS signal BUT the triangle breakout continues:

U/J 4 hr:

U/J daily:

G/J: also not a fully valid TS signal BUT a bullish inverse H&S is building and the 'neck line' is looming. Keep an eye on this with GBP PMI data out in one hour:

G/J 4 hr:

G/J daily:

E/U: the bullish wedge breakout continues: 
E/U 4 hr:
E/U weekly: 

A/J: just keeps going. If it passes the daily chart 'double top' then it might continue to test the monthly chart triangle trend line!

 A/J 4 hr:
A/J daily:
A/J weekly:
A/J monthly:

Cable: keep an eye on the monthly 200 EMA, especially with red flag PMI out in one hour. The monthly chart shows how important this level is: 

G/U 4 hr:
 G/U monthly:

Kiwi: this is starting to look bullish again after consolidating above the triangle breakout:
Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi monthly:

Tue 1st April (2.40 pm)
A/U: with no collapse I have put in an order to long at just above the daily 200 EMA. I am already long the E/J.

Tue 1st April (2.30 pm)

A/U: I had a new TS signal to LONG off my 12 noon candle BUT I'm waiting to see the fallout from the RBA news.

Tue 1st April (9.40 am)

GBP/JPY: this chart and technical set up has me quite excited:

Gold: I did get a new TS signal off my 8 am candle and price has closed below the 50% fib level of the recent bull move. Maybe we might get a pullback to the 61.8% fib? I'm wary here though. Any USD weakness might trigger a reversal here. BTW: I don't trade Gold FX BUT use these signals for trading Gold stocks and Options.

Gold 4 hr

Gold daily:

Tue 1st April (7.10 am)
It is a busy day on the trading calendar today with Chinese, GBP, USD and AUD red flag data.

Indices: the USDX gave a false triangle breakout so I'll be adjusting my trend lies here. The EURX is back where it was to start the week:


S&P500: got a boost from some calming words from Janet Yellen. There are two main items to watch out for on this index:

  1. For any triangle breakout.
  2. For any new bullish cross on the daily Ichimoku Cloud chart.

30 min chart:

Daily chart: no triangle breakout just yet:

Ichimoku Cloud chart: a bearish cross is till evident BUT watch for any new bullish cross:

Gold: a new short TS signal is trying to form here which surprises me a bit. Maybe the reduced fear in the market has traders looking for stocks/dividends instead of 'safe haven' Gold? 

Open TS signal:

E/J: this has been choppy but has given up to 70 pips and is still open:

Non valid TS signals:
The U/J and the GBP/JPY both gave TS signals late last week off my Saturday 4 am candle. Neither of these signals were valid though as price was outside the Bollinger band. Both are trading higher though and the U/J looks set to make a triangle break on today's daily candle close. The GBP/JPY, on the other hand, looks to be heading towards a possible bullish 'inverse H&S' break:

U/J 4 hr: TS signal (not valid) noted with arrow:

U/J daily: triangle breakout looming: 

GBP/JPY 4 hr:  TS signal (not valid) noted with arrow:

GBP/JPY: inverse H&S building here?

Other FX:

E/U: a bullish wedge breakout BUT no new TS signal. This is what happened with the A/J too though and it then went for almost 300 pips! 

A/U: gearing up for key RBA data later today:

A/J: still going but getting close to the pivotal 'double top' region from October 2013. Today's RBA and CNY data might trigger the next directional move here. 

A/J 4 hr:

A/J daily:

Cable: I'm watching the monthly 200 EMA here. There is key GBP data tonight as well as the Chinese data to impact here: 

Kiwi: this is holding above the triangle breakout region but the double top on the monthly chart isn't too far away.  That would be a huge ask to expect the Kiwi to trump the 2011 high:

Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi monthly:

EUR/AUD: choppy: 

GBP/AUD: ditto:

AUD/NZD: I'm watching the 1.075 level. I wouldn't be taking ANY long here until this pair can break and hold back above this key S/R level:

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