Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Trading Week 30th April

Wed April 30th (7.40 pm)
Indices: The EURX is putting in a bounce despite the weaker than expected European CPI data. Other EUR data has been positive though and this seems to have dominated the most recent sentiment:

USDX: the monthly pivot continues to be strong resistance for the index:

TSLA: this stock has been brought to my attention. Not cheap but the chart pattern looks interesting as price consolidates in what looks to me like a 'Bull Flag' of sorts:

NB: It is end of month today so watch tomorrow for completed April monthly candles.

I mistakenly thought it was 'end of quarter' but have corrected this. I blame the headache I've battled all day today and...... which is still winning.

Wed April 30th (5 pm)
Aussie Markets: The XJO, ASX 200, has managed to close out the month above the key S/R level of 5,480 and this is a significant achievement:

The major heavy weight index of the S&P500 is trading up just under the upper triangle trend line of the flag pattern BUT there is no clear new direction here just yet:

I am still seeing many FX pairs, stocks, FX indices and stock indices hovering and chopping around at pivotal levels. I've received very few FX signals over recent weeks and the few I have had have been choppy. I still consider that a major move is brewing, as per my article last week and as discussed over the w/e. I am watching and waiting for clues as to which direction this move may end up heading and I'm watching trend lines for clues.

GBP/JPY: the false triangle break here, with no follow through or momentum, has resulted in me drawing new S/R tend lines:

G/J daily:

G/J 4 hr:

AUD/NZD: ditto here:

Wed April 30th (6.50 am)
Indices: Weaker than expected German CPI data has rattled the EURX and a potential bullish triangle breakout has subsequently reversed. The USDX has recovered a bit of ground:


Index Cloud charts: these show how the indices are struggling to break free from their daily Cloud zones and, thus, trading is best avoided at times like these:

EURX Cloud:
USDX Cloud:

S&P500: stocks have traded higher on positive data and earnings. It is still not clear whether the bearish 'Triple Top' of 'Bull Flag' will triumph here though:

S&P500 Cloud: Price is still above the Cloud for now:

TS Signals:

E/J: the weaker German CPI data undermined this trade. After reaching as high as 50 pips it has closed for a loss of 15 pips:

Kiwi: was not a preferred signal and I left this BUT it closed off too at -30.

Other FX: no new TS signals. It may be best and safest to wait to trade until next week. Why?
  • The FX index charts are congested around their daily Ichimoku Cloud suggesting further choppiness.
  • There is batch of US data still to come this week ( GDP, FOMC and NFP).
  • Also, a BoJ monetary policy statement to come later today.
  • There is a holiday in much of Europe and China on Thursday.
  • There is red flag EUR CPI data on Thursday. 
There might be some clarity and a more obvious direction on the Index charts, with stocks and FX after all of this.

E/U: lower after German CPI. Back below the 61.8% fib level:

A/U: still channel bound: 

 A/J: ditto

Cable: still above 1.68 but not moving too far. The USD might impact here and US data might now be the trigger for movement (FOMC, GDP and NFP)

U/J: still struggling at the monthly 200 EMA. The weak signal failed and this, like the Cable, may also need the batch of US data to get it going. Also, there is red flag BoJ data out later today:

GBP/JPY: no new TS signal BUT there has been a trend line break and price is above the monthly 200 EMA. There is BoJ data later today that may impact here.

EUR/AUD: choppy. The TS signal was not valid here but failed anyway. 

GBP/AUD: has stalled at the resistance zone created by the trend line and the monthly pivot:

AUD/NZD: triangle still forming up:

Silver: is still 'planking' along the support trend line from the monthly triangle:

Silver 4 hr: 
Silver monthly:

Gold: chopping sideways as well:

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