Thursday, April 3, 2014

Trading Week: 3rd April (am)

Thurs 3rd April (8 am)
E/J: The daily candle actually closed above the 143...I see that as significant!

Thurs 3rd April (6 am)
Indices: The USD is trading higher and seems to be anticipating some relief with NFP. The EURX is trading a bit lower:

Gold: Interestingly, even with the USD trading higher, Gold is also ticking upwards.  

S&P500: is chopping sideways and slightly higher.

The daily S&P500 chart shows how the triangle breakout has held BUT this now poses another 'double top' scenario that traders will be watching, especially with NFP on Friday. I would expect some choppiness on the index as it gets closer to this 'double top' region: 

The other S&P500 chart to watch is the daily Ichimoku chart. The Tenkan/Kijun lines seem to have fused again and traders need to watch to see if any new bullish cross evolves. Any such bullish cross would be deemed a 'strong' signal as this would evolve above bullish Cloud:

Open TS Signals:
E/J:  this TS signal looks to have closed off now and price has slipped back below the 143 level. I'm watching to see if this pull back is a reversal or just a pause that turns into a new 'Bull Flag'. 

E/J 4 hr:

E/J 4 hr revised: I have drawn in new trend lines to help gauge whether this is a reversal or pull back. trend lines are very arbitrary though so this is very rough 'Science'!

Kiwi: has move on to give 60 pips. The 0.85 might be a reasonable first target here as this is near the 4hr 200 EMA:

AUD/NZD: this hasn't moved much since I noted the signal.

Other FX:
E/U: trading lower but no new TS signal so I'm suspicious about whether this will keep falling:

GBP/JPY: this looks like it might close back below the S/R levels of the inverse H&S 'neck line' and the monthly 200 EMA. I had mentioned yesterday that this was a daily chart pattern and that traders needed to see a daily close above these levels to be at all confident of any possible bullish continuation. This has not evolved as yet.

G/J 4 hr:

G/J 4 hr revised: Like with the E/J, it is not clear just yet whether this is a reversal or just a pause that might also develop into a 'Bull Flag'. I have redrawn trend lines here to help gauge this one too:

A/U: I'm also surprised to see the Aussie holding up so well above the daily 200 EMA given the moves with the USD: 

A/J: ticking higher: 

Cable: lower but no new TS signal: 

EUR/AUD: choppy: 

GBP/AUD: ditto: 

NB: I am travelling how from interstate today. Updates will be few and brief. I actually think we will see little more happen now until after NFP anyway though.

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