Monday, December 30, 2013

Trading Week 30/12 13

Sat 04/01/14 (8.30 am)
Existing TS signals:
E/U: the daily trend line is a bit messy but price seems to have stalled at this level for the w/e:


E/J This signal has moved on:
New TS signals:
Kiwi: this has broken up and out of the trading channel and it gave a new signal yesterday (I missed it)



AUD/NZD: this move on the NZD has triggered a new TS signal here as well: 

Other pairs:
A/U: stalled at the 0.90:

A/J stalled at the trading channel trend line:

Cable: down and may test the monthly triangle trend line but no TS signal:

U/J: not giving up and looks like it might test the 61.8% fib again!

Fri 03/01/14 (5.30 pm)
My day has improved...the index charts are back on line now! I'll post my FX Indices update tomorrow, as usual. There has been a big gap on these, USDX up and EURX down, but I'd like to see where they head for the first few candles before assessing these at all.

I'm not convinced we'll get much of a 'risk off' move here. The AUD is off and running at the moment, as is the NZD, and this is probably due to the boost with Gold. The E/U is holding above the 1.365 still and the U/J is struggling to form a short signal. All a bit out of sync really.


Fri 03/01/14 (2 pm)
I'm not having a good day..internet has been down most of the day until just now...my Index charts are not updating...cricket is not looking the best!

Anyway....
E/J: this signal has delivered:
E/U: TS signal is flat for now BUT I'm looking for a close below the trend line anyway:

U/J: down but no signal yet:

U/J monthly Cloud: I had always thought it might test the top of the Cloud before any possible continuation. Maybe we'll get this now??? 

Cable: trying to form a signal but not just yet: 

Aussie and Kiwi chopping higher...strangely...might be the Gold factor:


A/J: trying to form a signal too:

Fri 03/01/14 (5 am)
Indices: my index charts are not working so far for me this year.

The Euro has pulled back overnight yet the AUD hasn't.

TS signals: the cable has closed off:

New TS signals: 
E/U: I received a signal on my 1 am candle BUT I would rather see a close below the support of the 1.365 and the daily trend line. The 1.365 has held price for now:


E/J: there has been a new signal here and a break of the daily trend line. The daily candle has yet to close here though so needs checking at the next candle close: 


U/J: down but no TS signal:

A/U: choppy still around the 0.89:
A/J: choppy:
Kiwi: ditto

EUR/AUD: down below the monthly 200 EMA support but no TS signal here

AUD/NZD: sideways still for now:

GBP/AUD: pulling back too but no TS signal here either!

S&P500: have taken a breather today. I was up early to place some trades here but I'll wait a bit now in the hope of some better prices!

Thurs 02/01/14 (8.20 pm Sydney!)
Kiwi: this didn't ever close out of the trading channel. The TS signal looks set to close for a loss though of about 50:

Cable: moved up to 190 pips but pulling back a bit just now: 

U/J: no new TS signal just yet but one is close to forming AND it looks like the U/J is gathering up some steam to have a crack at the 61.8% fib:

EUR/AUD: holding it together above the major S/R level of the monthly 200 EMA:

Aussie: very choppy around the major 0.89 level: 

GBP/AUD: chopping higher and trying to form a new TS signal:

Thurs 2/1/14 (6.20 am Sydney!)

Open TS signal:
Cable: signal up a legitimate 150 pips now after that spike:
New TS signal:
Kiwi: it might be safer to see if the Kiwi can break and hold above the daily trading channel though:
Kiwi 4 hr:
Kiwi daily:

Other pairs:

E/U: closed for the year below the 1.38:

A/U: closed the year out above the key 0.89:
A/U 4 hr:
A/U weekly:

A/J: making for a break of the daily trading channel:
A/J 4hr:
A/J daily:

U/J: trying to form a new TS signal:

AUD/NZD: may not be recovering just yet. Maybe the 2005 lows will be seen here!


Tue 31st Dec (4 pm NZ)
New Year's Eve parking!  Some of the major pairs look like settling into parking slots a bit early!

E/U: parking near the 1.38, which side though?

A/U: parking near the 0.89. Now, the big question here is which side of the line will it park?

U/J: parking near the 105 and just under the 61.8% fib?

A/J: parking near the upper trend line of the trading channel which also happens to be a fib level: 

EUR/AUD: parking near the major level of the monthly 200 EMA. As with the A/U, which side will it park though?

I'm out for the evening soon so....a Happy and safe New Year to all!

I'm a sad case for sure as I'm actually more excited to see where some monthly candles close than for our NYE cruise! Some stock candles are at huge levels and I'm looking to see where they close for the month/year end.


Tue 31st Dec (11 am NZ)
My daily candle has just closed and the Aussie has closed above the 0.89 for the 30th. The next daily candle close will be critical here for the Aussie and I'm sure I'm not the only person watching to see where it closes for the year!



There are no new TS signals just yet. The E/U and A/J moves faded. 

Tue 31st Dec (8 am NZ)
Aussie: The Aussie is choppy as it tries to close out the year above the key 0.89 level. I'd be leaving this pair well alone until then. The weekly chart below show how choppy this pair has been around this level. Check the left hand 'shoulder' of the potential H&S pattern. This 'shoulder' was about 8 weeks in the making:

A close below the 0.89 for the year and any continued USD strength would be bearish for this pair and could possibly trigger this weekly H&S move. This is a 'watch this space' kind of event. 

Tue 31st Dec (7.30 am NZ)
Indices: The USD has fallen overnight and the EURX has risen. US stocks are mixed as the year end close is waited on. I would be wary with this pull back for the USD given the potential bullish impact from 'tapering':
USDX:
EURX:

A/U: this TS signal reversed with the rising USD. A loss of 80 pips. I think a hold back above the 0.89 at year end and any continued USD weakness could be taken as a bullish signal for the A/U. This 0.89 level is a critical level for the Aussie though: 

EUR/AUD: this signal has closed:
GBP/AUD: ditto
 Cable: this is still going

U/J: this reacted at the 61.8% fib:

A/J: a TS signal is building here and a trend line is being tested for a possible break: 

AUD/NZD: doing nothing as both the AUD and NZD are up higher on the USD weakness: 

E/U: a new signal trying to form here too: 

Monday 30th Dec (9 pm NZ)
The internet is very poor today!

These TS signals have closed: E/U and A/J:


These TS signals are still open: Cable, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.



New TS signals: A/U short: