Thursday, April 17, 2014

Trading Week: April 17th: A/U & Cable in focus!

Thurs April 17th (7.15 pm)
E/U: Frustratingly close but no TS signal just yet. Any bullish candle should trigger a signal though off my next candle at 11 pm. Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hr and daily chart so this signal would be valid from that perspective but the Bollinger bands would need monitoring. I will miss any new TS signal but would then look to when the market next opens after Easter:

E/U 4 hr:

EURX 4 hr: watch for any triangle breakout attempt here:

USDX daily: This might be heading back to test the 79 level again:

Ichimoku Alignment: The index charts are close to another 'risk on' alignment across the EURX and USDX on the 4hr and daily charts. There still needs to be a 4 hr candle close above the Cloud on the EURX but it looks to be shaping up that way for the time being. Maybe this time some good trending markets will emerge!

Thurs April 17th (4.15 pm)
E/U: A new TS signal is trying to build here as price bounces off the major 61.8% fib. I'll need the 7 pm candle:

Thurs April 17th (4 pm)
Kiwi: I've been looking over my charts and have re-assessed the S/R trend lines for the Kiwi. They aren't too different though. The monthly chart shows price forming up into an ascending triangle now with the upper boundary at the 0.88 S/R level:

Kiwi monthly:

Kiwi weekly:

Kiwi daily: note the extra support trend line on the daily chart:

Kiwi 4 hr:

S&P500: the support trend line has not been broken and the ADX line is below 20. There is no sign of any new bearish correction just yet:

Aussie: no new breakout here just yet:

A/U 4hr:

A/U 4 hr Cloud: the Cloud band is relatively narrow and may not offer too  much support:

Thurs April 17th ( 3 pm)
TS Signals: 
Kiwi: this has closed off now for no gain:

GBP/AUD: this signal is still going and has achieved 100 pips since first noted. I had suggested waiting to get in until after price closed above the Ichimoku Cloud though:

Thurs April 17th ( 5.30 am)
S&P500: Stocks have rallied overnight on positive earnings and this index has now popped back above the Ichimoku Cloud. Traders need to watch for any new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross here as a valid bullish cross above the Cloud would suggest continuation. NB: The most recent bullish cross was not valid as the trend lines were horizontal and didn't tick upwards at all:

S&P500 Ichimoku:

S&P500 daily: note how the daily support trend line is still supporting price:

Indices: The USDX has ticked back up over night. Let's see if it can get past the monthly pivot this time!

EURX: this has turned lower and is still coiling within the triangle: 

Gold and Silver: these two appear to be in a bit of limbo as the USD fluctuates.

Gold: I'm still seeing the bullish 'inverse H&S' on the daily chart but a stronger USD will make this a challenge for Gold:

Gold daily:
Gold 4 hr:

Silver: is holding above the daily triangle trend line BUT a stronger USD will put pressure on Silver too:

Silver daily: 
Silver 4 hr:

TS Signals: I'm wary with any TS signals now given trading volumes will be greatly reduced over the Easter break.

GBP/AUD: still positive and above the 4hr Ichimoku Cloud:

G/A 4 hr:

G/A 4 hr Cloud:

Kiwi: has pulled back with the shift to 'risk on' with stocks overnight. It is still below the daily Cloud though and also the major monthly chart triangle trend line:

Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi 4 hr Cloud:

Other FX:

E/U: choppy:

E/J: also choppy and still triangle trading: 

A/U: this also seems to have been lifted by the sentiment with stocks. The 4hr chart is looking more 'Bull Flag' like now. Note how the 4hr Cloud has helped to support price. I wrote an article about this yesterday: 

A/U 4 hr:

A/U 4hr Cloud: 

A/J: looks to be trying to move higher too:

Cable: This is sitting up at the major S/R triple top region of 1.68. I am bullish on the Cable and have been seeing signs of bullish continuation here for some time. The recent bullish 'inverse H&S' on the 4 hr chart was just one example here.

G/U 4 hr:

The monthly chart shows how price made a bullish triangle break some weeks ago. It has recently been negotiating the major resistance of the monthly 200 EMA. A continued hold above this level would suggest to me that the 61.8% fib, up at the 1.82 region, would be an obvious long term target. I have been the butt of a few jokes over this view but I stand by this analysis and may have the final laugh. The monthly 200 EMA, and the 1.68 level just above this, are major barriers though. I would expect to see a tussle at these levels continue for a bit longer BUT a close above these levels at the end of this month would be a very bullish signal indeed! Price has not made a monthly candle close above 1.68 since September 2008! Thus, any new close above this level would be very bullish. 

A monthly failure at this 1.68 level and a close back below the monthly 200 EMA for April would suggest two options to me: either a period of further consolidation at this new high or a new 'market top' and I would then be looking for further signals of either outcome. 

G/U monthly:

U/J: triangle trading:

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