Thursday, April 10, 2014

Trading Week: 10th April (am)

Thursday 10th April (5.45 am)
Indices: I have been noting in my w/e write ups for some time now how the USDX has been ranging between the 81.50 and 79 level for over 6 months now. Price is edging down towards the bottom of that range now as the daily chart shows:

USDX daily:

EURX: this has bounced up off the major support of the monthly triangle bull trend line:

S&P500: for once it can be said that the US has followed the lead from Australia! Aussie stocks carved a significant gain and breakout yesterday and US stocks have followed that path too, for the time being at least: 
S&P500 30 min:

S&P500 daily: the daily support trend line is still a fair way below current price: 

S&P500 Ichimoku: watch for any new Tenkan/Kijun cross here: 

Today: watch for AUD employment data and Chinese Trade Balance data.The Chinese data, if positive, could give the bit of 'risk on' that we're seeing a bit of a kick! 

TS Signals: the two valid signals have kept going:

E/U: this TS signal has moved on to deliver 110 pips. Note this signal came, shortly after, with the confluence of a trading channel break out. The E/U is carving its way back up through some strong resistance levels now too:

E/U 4 hr:

E/U daily: The E/U is now back up near the major triangle trend line from the monthly chart pattern. I am close to receiving a TS signal to 'long' here from my daily chart now as well:

E/U weekly: This chart shows how price is also now back above the major 61.8% fib from the 2011-2012 bear move.

Kiwi: this TS signal is positive BUT price is choppy as it nears previous highs and the resistance of the 0.88 level: 

Other FX:
Cable: The Cable gave a recent TS signal but this was deemed not valid as the signal candle was outside the Bollinger band. Pity that, as price has now moved on 90 pips from then (see arrow). This pair has also made another technical pattern breakout now though too. There has been a bullish 'inverse H&S' breakout on this pair. Price is trading 80 pips up from the 'neck line' of this move and the suggested move, the height of the H&S, is about 240 pips. One to watch for sure. The monthly 200 EMA, the 'neck line' is a major S/R level and this may end up being tested again before any potential continuation:

Aussie: this had also given a TS signal that was deemed not valid. Watch here today for AUD employment data: 

A/J: no new TS signal here so the trend lines have been adjusted to capture recent price action which is still choppy. AUD employment data may help this pair to make a decisive break:

E/J: choppy still but looks set to close back up above the major 61.8% fib and back within the triangle:

E/J 4 hr:

E/J daily:

U/J: also still triangle bound:

U/J 4 hr:
U/J daily:

GBP/JPY: I am still seeing a possible inverse H&S here on the daily chart, albeit a bit wonky! 

G/J 4 hr:

G/J daily:

EUR/AUD: continues to be choppy with both EUR and AUD strength:

GBP/AUD: continues to be choppy with both GBP and AUD strength:

Silver and Gold: both still trading within channels and yet to enjoy the weaker USD. Continued USD weakness could lead to new strength here though:


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