This page contains some screen shots of typical TS trades.
NB: Please note that these shots show my simplified TS template only. This is not my full trading template that I use to confirm a new trade entry.
Wednesday 5/2/13
SPY Trade: It was another great session for possible SPY intra day trades during the US session. A TS signal came when the S&P500 was at 1,499:
Wednesday 5/2/13
SPY Trade: It was another great session for possible SPY intra day trades during the US session. A TS signal came when the S&P500 was at 1,499:
I would have looked to buy the Feb SPY $149 Call. This opened the session at $1.79 and is currently trading at $2.85. That is an increase of $1.06. The SPY Call would most likely have been higher than that when the trade would have been placed so this is a very rough estimate of profit:
The maximum ROIC would then be = (1.06/1.79) x 100 = 59%. Again, not bad for one trading session!
Tuesday 5/2/13 (8 am)
There was a great SPY ETF trade off the 30 min S&P500 charts during the US session last night. The risk off' mood was always likely to continue through the US session, especially given the recent highs that had been achieved. It was not surprising to see the markets take a breather! The S&P500 gave a TS SHORT signal when the S&P500 was at 1,502:
I would have looked to buy the Feb $150 Put. This Put opened @ $0.82 cents and finished at time of this processing @ $1.46. That is an increase of $0.64cents
The ROIC for this trade is ROIC= (0.64/0.82) x 100 = 78%. That is a great return for just one day!
Saturday 2nd Feb 2013
E/U had yielded up to 150 pips. This pair has yielded 350 pips since my Cloud alignment started on Friday of last week!
E/J up to 330. This pair has yielded almost 700 pips since my Cloud alignment started on Friday of last week!
E/A up to 200. This pair has yielded 380 pips since my Cloud alignment started on Friday of last week!
Friday 18th Jan 2013
The S&P500 gave a great SPY trading opportunity on the 30 min chart overnight. A signal to go LONG came in during the early US session and when the S&P500 was at $1467.
Thus, I would have looked to buy the Feb SPY $147 Call @ $2.00. This Call finished the day at $2.59.
The ROIC for this trade was 29%! ROIC = [($0.59/$2) x 100] = 29%.
Not bad for one trading session!
There have been some great TS signals to start the New Year for 2013:
E/U up 200
E/J up 450
A/J up 220
U/J up 170
EUR/AUD: up 180 now.
Wednesday 26th December:
There have been some great trend trades on the currency pairs over recent weeks. Many of them giving hundreds of pips. Some of these are shown below:
E/U 320 pips
E/J 550 pips
A/J 220 pips
Kiwi 220 pips
EUR/AUD: 330 pips:
Swissie: 160 pips
I have found the EUR/AUD to be a pair offering reasonable opportunities of late given the increasing disconnect between the Euro and the AUD. We are also currently in a period of choppy markets with continued divergence on the Indices Cloud charts. The EUR/AUD gave a great 30 min trade last night during the London/US session after some down beat Euro news. This move gave an easy 100 pips!
The S&P500 ended up yielding a maximum of 160 pips overnight. There was a TS signal to 'LONG" just before the US session. This signal came through when the index was at $1368.17:
Thus, if I was able to trade this, I would have bought the $137 Nov Call Option. This Option opened at $1.56 and closed up $1.11 to finish at $2.67:
This represents a return on invested capital of around 70%!
ROIC= ($1.11/$1.56) x 100 = 71%
This trade came with the added confluence that price had bounced of the bottom trend line from the daily chart trading channel:
There were also great 30 min chart trades on Gold and Silver:
Monday 19th Nov
The EUR/AUD gave two signals last week. One, earlier in the week, to go SHORT which just went sideways for a few days. Then, later in the week, there was a signal to go LONG which came with the added confluence of a trend line break out of a trend channel. This trade gave up to 140 pips before it hit resistance in the form of the 4hr 200 EMA. This would have been the ideal spot to set a take profit from anyway:
I've been looking over the TS 'risk off' signals that are currently in play. It is interesting to see how much the various pairs have moved. The total (maximum) pip tally from these moves, so far, is a whopping 815!
E/U has moved 100
Swissie: has moved 70
Silver has moved 100
Gold has moved 350
EUR/AUD has moved 80
Friday 02/11/12
The first week on November was marked by divergence across the index Ichimoku Cloud charts. As is often the case, these periods tend to be marked by choppy trades on the 4hr time frames but with great trades from the shorter time frame 30 min charts noted during the London and US trading sessions. This day was a perfect example of this with great 30 min chart trades on the E/U, G/U, Swissie, Silver and Gold. see charts below:
There was also a great trade on the S&P500 overnight. The chart below shows how the ADX would have stopped you from entering a 'LONG' trade but helped you to get into a profitable 'SHORT' trade:
Thursday 01/11/12 53% ROIC on an intra day SPY trade:
There was another great intra day trade on the SPY ETF possible on the first day of the month for November. Statistically the first day of the trading month is more often positive than not and some traders use this knowledge as a basis of their trading. A very low risk: high return trade it was indeed. I got a TS 'LONG' signal on the S&P500 during the US trading session when the index was at $1406.14:
The first week on November was marked by divergence across the index Ichimoku Cloud charts. As is often the case, these periods tend to be marked by choppy trades on the 4hr time frames but with great trades from the shorter time frame 30 min charts noted during the London and US trading sessions. This day was a perfect example of this with great 30 min chart trades on the E/U, G/U, Swissie, Silver and Gold. see charts below:
There was also a great trade on the S&P500 overnight. The chart below shows how the ADX would have stopped you from entering a 'LONG' trade but helped you to get into a profitable 'SHORT' trade:
Thursday 01/11/12 53% ROIC on an intra day SPY trade:
There was another great intra day trade on the SPY ETF possible on the first day of the month for November. Statistically the first day of the trading month is more often positive than not and some traders use this knowledge as a basis of their trading. A very low risk: high return trade it was indeed. I got a TS 'LONG' signal on the S&P500 during the US trading session when the index was at $1406.14:
Thus, I would have looked to buy the Nov $141 Call Option. This opened at $1.98 and closed at $3.03. This was an increase of $1.05:
The return on invested capital was therefore:
ROIC: ($1.05/$1.98) x 100 = 53%!
This is the maximum possible gain as it would all depend on the ETF price at the time of purchase but I think you get the picture here!
Friday 20/10/12: 77% (maximum) possible on a SPY 'short' day trade:
There was an amazing opportunity for a low risk, intra-day trade on the SPY last night. There had been little movement on the S&P500 for the previous two nights and, add to this, some poor Earnings news, and you had a perfect set up for a SPY 'short' trade.
A TS signal to go 'SHORT' came through during the US session when the S&P500 was at $1444.68:
There was an amazing opportunity for a low risk, intra-day trade on the SPY last night. There had been little movement on the S&P500 for the previous two nights and, add to this, some poor Earnings news, and you had a perfect set up for a SPY 'short' trade.
A TS signal to go 'SHORT' came through during the US session when the S&P500 was at $1444.68:
I would then have looked to buy the Nov SPY $144 Put @ $1.51.
This Put Option increased in value throughout the trading session to up to $2.67. This represents an increase of $1.16:
This Put Option increased in value throughout the trading session to up to $2.67. This represents an increase of $1.16:
The Return on Invested Capital for this trade was an amazing 77%:
ROIC = ($1.16/ $1.51) x 100 = 76.8% For just one trading session!
I have sometimes referred to this gain as ROR, Return on Risk. This is not entirely accurate though. Whilst I imagine it would be 'possible' I do suspect it is very unlikely that an Option would ever fall to a value of 'zero' during one trading session. Thus, whilst the purchase price here of $1.51 is 'at risk', it is unlikely that you would lose the whole $1.51 in one day if the trade went against you. Sure, you could easily lose 0.50 cents which would represent a risk, and subsequent loss, of around 30% but I would most likely close the trade at that point, if not before.
I am not in a position, just yet, to day trade the S&P500 and I would need to determine clear and concise 'stop loss' exit values for trades that do not work out. The ADX would be my guide here, as always though, but you can see on the above chart that the ADX did not stop to draw a breath on Friday!
I need to also stress here that I working with back data and these values represent a maximum possible gain. It is unlikely that one ever gets in at the extreme top and bottom of a particular move. For example, in this trade above, the SPY $144 Put would no doubt have moved in price from the open price but the gains on this trade would still be very substantial!
I am not in a position, just yet, to day trade the S&P500 and I would need to determine clear and concise 'stop loss' exit values for trades that do not work out. The ADX would be my guide here, as always though, but you can see on the above chart that the ADX did not stop to draw a breath on Friday!
I need to also stress here that I working with back data and these values represent a maximum possible gain. It is unlikely that one ever gets in at the extreme top and bottom of a particular move. For example, in this trade above, the SPY $144 Put would no doubt have moved in price from the open price but the gains on this trade would still be very substantial!
Wednesday 17th October 2012
This was another fantastic opportunity for an intra-day SPY ETF trade. A TS 'LONG' signal came in the late London/US session and yielded a clean, low risk 100+ pips.
This TS 'LONG' signal came through when the S&P500 was at $1436.23. Thus, I would have looked to buy the Nov $144 Call Option. This Option increased by 90 cents overnight! It opened at $2.43 and closed at $3.33. See below:
The maximum possible Return on Risk for this trade, for just one session, was a whopping 37%. see below:
ROR = (0.90/2.43) x 100 = 37%! For just one trading session and a low risk trade!
ROR = (0.90/2.43) x 100 = 37%! For just one trading session and a low risk trade!
The US session on Wed 10th October provided another great low risk opportunity to trade the SPY ETF intra-day on the S&P500. A clear TS signals to ‘short’ the SPY came during the US session when price was at the 1432.50 level. Thus, I would then look to buy a November $143 PUT. The PUT cost was $2.23 and this closed at $2.53, an increase of 30 cents. This represents a ROR gain of 13.5% for the low risk, short trade for just one day!
ROR = profit/risk
ROR= (0.30 cents/ $2.23) x 100
ROR= 13.5%
NB: This represents the maximum possible gain on this $143 ETF for the day. I have used ‘end of day’ and midpoint data to illustrate this example.
02/10/12
I posted a warning to watch out for a potential breakout on the EUR/AUD before the TS signal came through on this pair. The TS signal then came with the added confluence of a major trend line break. The move went for 300 pips and is still running!
11/09/12
There was a great TS 'Long' trade possible on the 30 min charts with the A/U during the London/US session. 100 pips so far and still running!
07/09/12
There were a few great TS trend trades off 30 min charts after the ECB news release last night:
A/J 100 pips
E/J 60 pips
S&P500 200 pips
An easy 50 pip pick up on the A/U with a TS signal and a trend line break as confluence:
- Buy Nov $143 Put at $2.23
- Sell Nov $143 Put @ $2.53
- Profit = 0.30 cents
ROR = profit/risk
ROR= (0.30 cents/ $2.23) x 100
ROR= 13.5%
NB: This represents the maximum possible gain on this $143 ETF for the day. I have used ‘end of day’ and midpoint data to illustrate this example.
02/10/12
I posted a warning to watch out for a potential breakout on the EUR/AUD before the TS signal came through on this pair. The TS signal then came with the added confluence of a major trend line break. The move went for 300 pips and is still running!
11/09/12
There was a great TS 'Long' trade possible on the 30 min charts with the A/U during the London/US session. 100 pips so far and still running!
07/09/12
There were a few great TS trend trades off 30 min charts after the ECB news release last night:
A/J 100 pips
29/09/12
This month has been quite choppy but at least I had the Ichimoku charts to give me some warning that this was coming:
Last April when price was similarly stuck in the cloud on the daily charts I found trading was safest off the 30 min charts. This pattern is holding true again in August. 4 hr trend trading has been poor for the 1,2 and this the 4th week of August. There have been some ok trend trades off the 30 min charts though. The E/U and Swissie gave two trades last night:
22/09/12
August is proving to be another choppy month for longer term trend trading like it was back in April. I've noticed, that like back in April, trading is best and safest from shorter term charts when it's choppy like it has been. There were two great examples of this last night on the 30 min charts:
The E/U gave up to 100 pips:
The Swissie gave up to 90 pips when it moved:
Whilst the choppy markets are a bit annoying it is good to see that known strategies can be applied to these conditions to enable some trading!
12/06/12
These pairs are just some that gave great and easy trend trades last night on the shorter time frame charts. This was a night where the sentiment changed from 'risk on' to 'risk off'. I often find that trading from the shorter time frames is more successful during these periods of market flux! These trades kicked in during the later London or US session. Remember, the left hand side of the blue box denotes the Asian session, the right half, the London session and then the rest is the US session:
31/05/12
NZD/USD
I have to admit that I had taken my eye off this pair some time ago. It has come back into my field of view though lately. It has given a classic TS trend move on a break of an EMA support level to the tune of around 600 pips on the daily chart! It continues to trade within the confines of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. I'm watching the 75 level closely though!
23/05/12
Choppy markets have continued to give good trades on the 30 min charts during the US session. The E/U and A/U were examples of this last night:
18/05/12
The Loonie!
The Loonie presented me this week with a magnificent TS trend trade that came with the added confluence of a trend line break out of a symmetrical triangle. The trade is currently up over 150 pips!
16/05/12
A/U
The A/U is one of my favourite pairs for trading with my TS system. This pair has given 3 good TS signals over recent weeks that have given up to 400 pips!
16/05/12
NZD/USD 400 + pips
The NZD/USD has had a classic triangle break out accompanied by a TradeSpotting SHORT signal to give over 400 pips recently.
05/05/12
I am finding, more and more, during these markets that trying to trade from the longer 4hr time frame is just too unpredictable. Some trend signals develop and follow through but others stall, and, most of these technical signals are interrupted by significant fundamental news announcements. I have observed though, by looking back through the charts, that trading from the shorter time frame charts on either 15 or 30 minutes through the European and US session is the more reliable and successful trading route. The following 30 min charts showing the last 24 hours of trade illustrate this point very clearly. The Asian session (first blue box) was rather choppy whereas a good trend started on each chart during the European session (second blue box) and continued into the US session (no colour):
E/U 50 pips
EJ 55 pips
AU 65 pips
AJ 60 pips
13/04/12
E/U
I was away for the weekend on the Friday evening that this move occurred. I would have missed it anyway as the TS signal kicked in in the late London /early US sesion. There was an easy 75 pips to catch on the 15 min chart during the US Friday trading session. This down move followed on from some poor data out of China earlier that day.
05/04/12
Gold and its 300+ pip move!
I had posted charts of Gold in my Trading Week Analysis for the week 2/4/2012 showing how a triangle breakout might have been looming. You can check back to see this. I had shown how it was trading within a symmetrical triangle. It did indeed have a breakout and there was a corresponding TS signal to go along with this. This was a fairly easy trade to 'spot' with the TS signal coming in aligned along with the daily chart trend line break. See the charts below:
29/03/12
The Aussie pairs!
There have been a few trades this week on some of the Aussie pairs. I don't understand the weakness but, that's my problem. The A/U and A/J short and E/A long had all delivered a load of pips.
14/03/12
USD/JPY:
I had noted a LONG U/J trade a few weeks ago but on the 4hr charts. (Check back in my blog). I just wanted to show you though that my TS system can also be applied on the longer time frame daily charts. This LONG trade on the U/J was easily spotted on the daily charts as well with a clear trend line break confirming the TS LONG signal. To date, this trade has delivered up to 500 pips! These longer term trades, whilst requiring larger stops, are often easier to manage, assuming that you don’t suffer from my condition of ‘micro-managing’ trades that is!
28/02/2012
EUR/AUD:
This is not a pair that I trade. One of my trading buddies who lives in the US has a fair bit of success with this pair though. This seems to be another pair that gives great opportunities after the Asian close. My last two evenings have been examples of this. Both of these nights yielded trading opportunities of 60 and 120 pips respectively. Needless to say, I've sent her an e-mail just now!
08/02/12
E/U
This would have been an easy pick up for those who could trade during the US session using 15 min charts. There was a clear and conservative entry with only a small stop required. There was also confluence with the indices trend giving a clear direction. This trade came during a period of ranging markets where trend were hard to find using 4 hr charts and trading was really only possible off the shorter term charts or from trading bounces.
07/02/12
E/J:
An easy trade on the E/J off 4 hr charts with the added confluence of a trend line break. This yielded over 130 pips!
01/02/12
E/U
The markets have been choppy all week and I think I need to be more flexible with flipping down to shorter time frames during such periods. The following 80 pip haul was an easy trend trade during my early evening (London session) from 5 min charts.
01/02/12
E/U
The markets were choppy to start this week and I often find, in times like these, that trends do not develop on the longer time frame charts. Often, though, TS signals and trends appear on the shorter time frame charts, especially during the US session. This was an easy 100 pip haul during a US session.
17/01/12
E/U
18/01/12
Swissie USD/CHF
The Swissie also gave a good TS signal with a trend line break for confluence. This trade has delivered up to 300 pips!:
An easy pick up on Silver if you were able to trade through the US session using 30 min charts:
This month has been quite choppy but at least I had the Ichimoku charts to give me some warning that this was coming:
Last April when price was similarly stuck in the cloud on the daily charts I found trading was safest off the 30 min charts. This pattern is holding true again in August. 4 hr trend trading has been poor for the 1,2 and this the 4th week of August. There have been some ok trend trades off the 30 min charts though. The E/U and Swissie gave two trades last night:
22/09/12
August is proving to be another choppy month for longer term trend trading like it was back in April. I've noticed, that like back in April, trading is best and safest from shorter term charts when it's choppy like it has been. There were two great examples of this last night on the 30 min charts:
The E/U gave up to 100 pips:
The Swissie gave up to 90 pips when it moved:
Whilst the choppy markets are a bit annoying it is good to see that known strategies can be applied to these conditions to enable some trading!
12/06/12
These pairs are just some that gave great and easy trend trades last night on the shorter time frame charts. This was a night where the sentiment changed from 'risk on' to 'risk off'. I often find that trading from the shorter time frames is more successful during these periods of market flux! These trades kicked in during the later London or US session. Remember, the left hand side of the blue box denotes the Asian session, the right half, the London session and then the rest is the US session:
E/U 100 pips
E/J 80 pips
USD/SGD 70 pips
Swissie 70 pips
Loonie 70 pips
31/05/12
NZD/USD
I have to admit that I had taken my eye off this pair some time ago. It has come back into my field of view though lately. It has given a classic TS trend move on a break of an EMA support level to the tune of around 600 pips on the daily chart! It continues to trade within the confines of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. I'm watching the 75 level closely though!
23/05/12
Choppy markets have continued to give good trades on the 30 min charts during the US session. The E/U and A/U were examples of this last night:
18/05/12
The Loonie!
The Loonie presented me this week with a magnificent TS trend trade that came with the added confluence of a trend line break out of a symmetrical triangle. The trade is currently up over 150 pips!
16/05/12
A/U
The A/U is one of my favourite pairs for trading with my TS system. This pair has given 3 good TS signals over recent weeks that have given up to 400 pips!
16/05/12
NZD/USD 400 + pips
The NZD/USD has had a classic triangle break out accompanied by a TradeSpotting SHORT signal to give over 400 pips recently.
05/05/12
I am finding, more and more, during these markets that trying to trade from the longer 4hr time frame is just too unpredictable. Some trend signals develop and follow through but others stall, and, most of these technical signals are interrupted by significant fundamental news announcements. I have observed though, by looking back through the charts, that trading from the shorter time frame charts on either 15 or 30 minutes through the European and US session is the more reliable and successful trading route. The following 30 min charts showing the last 24 hours of trade illustrate this point very clearly. The Asian session (first blue box) was rather choppy whereas a good trend started on each chart during the European session (second blue box) and continued into the US session (no colour):
E/U 50 pips
13/04/12
E/U
I was away for the weekend on the Friday evening that this move occurred. I would have missed it anyway as the TS signal kicked in in the late London /early US sesion. There was an easy 75 pips to catch on the 15 min chart during the US Friday trading session. This down move followed on from some poor data out of China earlier that day.
05/04/12
Gold and its 300+ pip move!
I had posted charts of Gold in my Trading Week Analysis for the week 2/4/2012 showing how a triangle breakout might have been looming. You can check back to see this. I had shown how it was trading within a symmetrical triangle. It did indeed have a breakout and there was a corresponding TS signal to go along with this. This was a fairly easy trade to 'spot' with the TS signal coming in aligned along with the daily chart trend line break. See the charts below:
29/03/12
The Aussie pairs!
There have been a few trades this week on some of the Aussie pairs. I don't understand the weakness but, that's my problem. The A/U and A/J short and E/A long had all delivered a load of pips.
USD/JPY:
I had noted a LONG U/J trade a few weeks ago but on the 4hr charts. (Check back in my blog). I just wanted to show you though that my TS system can also be applied on the longer time frame daily charts. This LONG trade on the U/J was easily spotted on the daily charts as well with a clear trend line break confirming the TS LONG signal. To date, this trade has delivered up to 500 pips! These longer term trades, whilst requiring larger stops, are often easier to manage, assuming that you don’t suffer from my condition of ‘micro-managing’ trades that is!
EUR/AUD:
This is not a pair that I trade. One of my trading buddies who lives in the US has a fair bit of success with this pair though. This seems to be another pair that gives great opportunities after the Asian close. My last two evenings have been examples of this. Both of these nights yielded trading opportunities of 60 and 120 pips respectively. Needless to say, I've sent her an e-mail just now!
E/U
This would have been an easy pick up for those who could trade during the US session using 15 min charts. There was a clear and conservative entry with only a small stop required. There was also confluence with the indices trend giving a clear direction. This trade came during a period of ranging markets where trend were hard to find using 4 hr charts and trading was really only possible off the shorter term charts or from trading bounces.
E/J:
An easy trade on the E/J off 4 hr charts with the added confluence of a trend line break. This yielded over 130 pips!
01/02/12
E/U
The markets have been choppy all week and I think I need to be more flexible with flipping down to shorter time frames during such periods. The following 80 pip haul was an easy trend trade during my early evening (London session) from 5 min charts.
01/02/12
E/U
The markets were choppy to start this week and I often find, in times like these, that trends do not develop on the longer time frame charts. Often, though, TS signals and trends appear on the shorter time frame charts, especially during the US session. This was an easy 100 pip haul during a US session.
17/01/12
E/U
18/01/12
Swissie USD/CHF
The Swissie also gave a good TS signal with a trend line break for confluence. This trade has delivered up to 300 pips!:
17/01/2012
USD/SGD
The USD/SGD is fast becoming a favourite trading pair of mine. It recently gave an easy trade with a great TS signal and the added confluence of a trend line break. It has given up to 320 pips!.
USD/SGD
The USD/SGD is fast becoming a favourite trading pair of mine. It recently gave an easy trade with a great TS signal and the added confluence of a trend line break. It has given up to 320 pips!.
20/01/2012
A/J:
An easy possible 220 pips with a trend line break to add confidence to a straightforward TS signal.
An easy 50 pip pick up on the A/U with a TS signal and a trend line break as confluence:
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