Thursday, April 3, 2014

Trading Week: 3rd April (pm)

Thurs 3rd April (3.45 pm)
The next 36 hrs: I have been stating for some weeks that a number of trading instruments are at pivotal levels. This remains the case as noted again below:
  • E/U: near apex of monthly chart triangle pattern.
  • E/J: at the 61.8% fib of the 2008-2012 bear move.
  • Cable: attempting to break above monthly 200 EMA on monthly chart.
  • Kiwi: attempting a monthly chart triangle break out.
  • U/J: at the 61.8% fib of the 2007-2012 bear move.
  • AUD/NZD: trying to bounce off the major low from back in 2005.
  • S&P500: a major high BUT also a 'double top'.

There are two events over the next 36 hours or so that could be catalysts to trigger decisive moves on many or all of these pairs; Thursday's ECB interest rate announcement and Friday's USD NFP. Traders should avoid opening new positions just prior to these events and, also, safeguard any profits on open positions.

Indices: the USDX is ticking higher and close to the upper triangle trend line  on the 4hr chart. Recall I'm tracking a possible bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern on the daily chart. The 'neck line' of this pattern is the weekly 200 EMA and this is just above current price:

USDX 4 hr:

USDX daily:

EURX 4 hr: a bit weaker.

S&P500: I had warned in my w/e write up that traders need to be on the lookout for two major developments here AND both have now evolved:
  • The S&P500 has made the triangle breakout BUT price is now back up to the previous high and printing a possible bearish 'double top'.

  •  There has been a new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross and this is deemed a strong signal as this cross evolved above bullish Cloud. These Tenkan/Kijun lines are trading flat at the moment though so these need watching to see if any uptick evolves.

Open TS signals:
Kiwi: now up 70 pips and I'm still thinking the 4 hr 200 EMA might be a target:

AUD/NZD:  we got the pull back I wanted BUT not quite far enough! My long order did not get filled:

E/J: I thought this was closing off but it seems not so. ECB will no doubt impact here:

Other FX:

U/J: still going higher. The 'Holy Trinity' alignment is back on with the Nikkei, U/J and S&P500 all trading higher. BTW: The earlier TS signal that, sadly, was not valid would have given 110 pips now: 

E/U: looking a bit nervous ahead of ECB data: 

Cable: lurking just below major S/R:

A/U: down but no new TS signal. Looks a bit 'Bull Flag' like though to me! 

G/J: Gave a 4 hr 'Bull Flag' breakout and is now back above the key S/R of the 'neck line' and monthly 200 EMA. The TS signal, that was not valid, would have given 190 pips now though! I'm still waiting to see a daily close above these levels.

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