Friday, April 4, 2014

Trading Week: 4th April ECB Game changer?

Fri 4th April (11.15 am)
Kiwi: not out of the woods yet. A bearish 'railway track' pattern' is forming up on the weekly chart. There is more room to fall here:

Fri 4th April (5.45 am)
US Stocks are trading flat following some weaker than expected US data and and the Euro is lower after being talked down by ECB Draghi. One risk event down and one to go for the week, NFP. 

Indices: the USDX has made a bullish triangle breakout on the 4 hr chart and this has pushed price above the major resistance level of the weekly 200 EMA. This S/R level is also the 'neck line' on the daily chart 'inverse H&S' that I have been stalking so I'll be watching for any daily close above this key level as this would suggest bullish continuation:

USDX 4 hr:

USDX daily: showing possible bullish 'inverse H&S' forming up: 

EURX: trading lower. Keep an eye on the monthly 200 EMA and bull support trend line here: 

S&P500: the weak US data and 'double top' are spooking traders it seems: 

S&P500 Ichimoku: the bullish cross needs to tick higher to suggest bullish follow through: 

Gold: the surprise is that Gold is holding up so well given the rally with the USD:

Open FX Signals:
E/J: has closed off courtesy of ECB after giving up to 170 pips:

Kiwi: This signal has stalled at the 38.2% fib but I thought that the 4 hr 200 EMA and 0.85 level would be targets: 

AUD/NZD: hasn't moved too far either just yet:

Other FX: 
E/U: is trading lower but no TS signal just yet. Keep an eye on the daily support trend line that is just under current price:

E/U 4 hr:
E/U daily:

A/U: has held up surprisingly well given the rally with the USD. The 4 hr chart even has a bit of a 'Bull Flag' look to it! 

A/J: still going for now: 

Cable:  I received a TS signal here off my 4 am candle BUT it is not supported by the Ichimoku charts so is not valid. Have 'arrowed' it though just for reference. I'm still seeing the inverse H&S here for now but NFP could undermine this:

U/J: still going. The TS signal here, that was not supported as the signal candle fell outside the Bollinger band, is now up 130 pips!

U/J 4 hr: 

U/J daily: price is edging up closer to the 'all important' 61.8% fib level again: 

EUR/AUD: choppy: 

GBP/AUD: ditto: 

GBP/JPY: yet again, price looks like the daily candle won't close above the key S/R levels. Price on the 4hr is forming up into a symmetrical broadening wedge which most reference as a 'bullish' pattern. We shall see!

G/J 4 hr: The TS signal here, that was not supported as the signal candle fell outside the Bollinger band, yielded almost 200 pips!

G/J: daily: I'm still seeing the bullish 'inverse H&S' here but NFP might change this:

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