I've just got my lap top back. I see that my TS signal to SHORT the E/U did deliver 150 pips and the signal to LONG the Swissie gave up to 120 pips. I live and I learn!.
My TS did know better than moi!
Friday 2/3 (9am): February ROR 68%
I'm signing off for this week now as I have to take my laptop to the IT doctor.
I've just been looking back at my results for February and they are very pleasing indeed.
Feb: 5 trades, 2 parcels per trade, Total pips made = 680 Total Risk= 1000
Thus my February ROR= 68%
Please note: My pip tally on the front page only shows the best result for each pair I trade and is not cumulative. I'm still not sure what is the best way to quote my pip tally; best of each pair, the full total or the full total divided by 2.
Friday 2/3 (6am)
The indices seem to have
essentially bounced around sideways overnight. Having said that though, even with some bad US
data overnight, stocks have managed to be up, so far, and the VIX has
dropped. It seems investors decided to shrug off today's bad news. Maybe they choose days with a 'T'' in them to decide which way to roll with the data punches!
On the currency front though,
the Wacky Races are well into it. We
have Dick Dastardly (Greek Debt) making regular appearances but also now too,
the Ant Hill Mob (US curve balls). I see
the A/J as more like Penelope Pitsop, failing to get drawn into all the
unpleasantness and just doing her own thing!
Oh, do I sound cynical? Never! Analytical, pragmatic and quite amused would be my spin on things. I am still annoyed about the A/J trade though, don't get me started on that one! It's now up almost 170 pips from when I first entered this trade yet I only scraped up about 20 or so! This was after stalking it for weeks!
The E/U is still down a bit, the
E/J is into planking big time, the A/U is up, the A/J is up, so too is the G/U. The Swissie is doing its ‘I’m neutral' thing
for the time being and the U/J and USD/SGD are still tracking sideways too. So, we have some pairs saying nothing (E/J),
some saying ‘risk off’ (eg E/U) and the others saying ‘risk on’ (A/J).
I think this is yet more of my
charts telling me: "don’t try and trade this Mary!"
BTW: I’m out most of the day and my
laptop is going to the IT doctor.
PS: these are two I'm stalking at the moment though:
(1) G/U is slowly moving towards a big triangle breakout at around the 1.6 level. I don't normally like this pair but I will make exceptions this time if this technical pattern unfolds!
(2) USD/SGD is also slowly moving towards a big triangle breakout:
Thursday 1/3 (9 pm)
The divergence theme seemed to play out so, the caution I exercised seems to have been wise. The E/U did fall away a bit from this morning but has since re-traced. There seems to be forces at work trying to keep up the momentum of 'risk on', a fact which isn't lost on me. It's hard to play ball when the flied ain't level!
Thursday 1/3 (5.30 pm)
There's not a lot more to add. I have looked through most of the pairs again though and they are all giving off little to no clear signal. I have posted some charts below. Take a look at the ADX on these charts and see how the DMI lines, the red and green lines, are mostly down below, or very near, the 20 level. This reflects the indecision between buying and selling demand here by way of low momentum. This is clearly a signal to wait until some kind of normal resumes.
Thursday 1/3 (3pm)
It has been a relatively quiet
Asian session. This isn’t surprising following
the large moves of last night. The USDX
and EURX have essentially traded sideways throughout my day. The DMIs on both of these indices are tending
to near or below the 20 level. They’re
clearly as confused as I am.
These are unusual times
indeed. The divergence evident amongst
the pairs last night was something quite unusual to observe. That, in itself, really should have been enough
warning against trading during this period.
My TS system is based on the
premise of finding strong momentum moves but when I see a disconnect in the
market, like I saw overnight then, in future, I think I will need to exercise
my own discretion and choose to not trade.
This is probably a point that should be included into my trading
rules. These current markets keep
throwing new curve balls and one needs to evolve quickly to survive in them. I made almost 400 pips over the last 2 weeks. I do not want to give them back to the market in foolish trades during choppy markets.
That is not to say that this TS
signal was in error. It may well
continue into a profitable trade BUT I don’t have to take every signal and every
trade. Having said that though, the E/U
has hardly moved since this morning and the divergence is still evident.
I will not be trading again this
week. I have to put my laptop in for a
service tomorrow and will not get it back until Saturday afternoon. Thus, my Indices and Trading Week Review may
not come out until the Sunday. Please
also note that I am away from next Monday 5/3 until Friday 23/3. I may not update as frequently during those 3
weeks.
Thursday 1/3 (8 am)
I may end up being sorry I cancelled this E/U short. It has started to fall away now and the other pairs that had previously held up, the A/U, G/U and A/J, have now started to fall as well.
My technical signals will probably end up proving to have better judgement than me! That's ok. It is tough to trade and be confident in signals at major turning points like these. We have been 'risk on' for about 6 weeks so some volatility and periodic divergence is to be expected. It is far better to take trades and trade signals when all the planets are aligned from the outset!
Thursday 1/3 (6.30 am)
I have cancelled my E/U short. I was not comfortable taking this trend trade when so many of the other pairs were divergent from it. The G/U is still holding up and the A/J is actually rising. Also, there is a constant drip of good US news. I want to see a stronger commitment to 'risk off' from the other pairs as well before I take a trade in that direction.
I am out most of today and will not update here until later this afternoon. By then we will have more of a take on how Asia reads these events.
Thursday 1/3 (5.30 am)
The 78 level has held up the USDX with it gaining
momentum from the uncertainty after the LTRO announcement and, also,
from concerns following a speech by Ben Bernanke. The Fed gave no indication of printing more money, understandable given the good data that seems to keep coming out of late. This all added to boosting the USD.
The rising USDX and falling EURX has not been reflected uniformly across the pairs though. The E/U, A/U and metals fell and the U/J and Swissie have rallied. That’s pretty standard. All of the Yen pairs have held up though too as well as the Cable (G/U). Hmmm. The Loonie fell! This is why I don’t trade it! Good USD up move and no bad CAD news and, then, the USD/CAD breaks and falls from a symmetrical triangle!
I don’t see the new ‘risk off’ trend being
reflected convincingly across all of the pairs yet. I do have new TS signals to short the E/U and
long the Swissie though. I have taken the E/U short. I am concerned taking a 'risk off' trade when there has been so much momentum for 'positivity' around of late but I will trade what I see and hope manipulation plays no part in this.
Wednesday 29/2 (9.30 pm)
Well, that was pretty crazy. I waited for the 9pm candle close and then a bit more for the LTRO to come out. That took a while and the markets still don't know what to make of the outcome. The USDX is trying to rally and the EURX is falling.
I am A/J long and USD/SGD Short though. I'm going to watch them though and pull them if sentiment changes.
PS: They are both in profit but I'm not at all confident if the sentiment will be maintained. I'm tired too so have moved stop to entry.
Wednesday 29/2 (5.30 pm)
Little has changes. I think the markets are waiting for the LTRO later today. Stopped out of A/J.
I've been out for a few hours but not a
lot has changed. The USDX is sitting on the daily 200 EMA though now.
I've got a signal
to LONG the Cable forming but the 4 hr candle is yet to close (one more hour).I don't trade the Cable but I have just been
looking at it. It, like the A/J has done, is approaching a major triangle breakout that
also dates back to 2007. It's got a little way to go yet though and, like
everything else, could reverse after from these critical levels we're currently at on
the USDX and EURX but, it is definitely worth watching. I would even be
tempted to take a long on this pair if I got a TS signal on a trend line break!
The A/J has pulled back but that's ok. I won't move my stop. I'm risk free here and the trend could go either way at this critical level.
We are at critical levels here on both the USDX and EURX. I don't have a clue which way things will move from here. All that I can do is watch the charts for price action, for new trends and hope for the confluence of trend line breaks to give me new trade entries.
We are at critical levels here on both the USDX and EURX. I don't have a clue which way things will move from here. All that I can do is watch the charts for price action, for new trends and hope for the confluence of trend line breaks to give me new trade entries.
I'll be a bit late back after the 5 pm candle as I'm on cricket pick up today for Tom and his mates.
Wednesday 29/2 (1 pm)
The USDX is putting on a very
brave face and hanging in there just above the 78 level. It may well bounce up from here but, if it
closes below 78 then, as they say, all bets are off.
The USD/SGD had formed a TS SHORT
signal but I still will wait for a break and close below the trend line before
taking this trade. The E/U is the only
other signal to form. It has just formed
a TS LONG signal but I won’t take this unless it closes above 1.35.
The A/J has just managed to have
a 4 hr candle close above the 87 level.
This is huge news for this pair!
It has not had a close at this level since mid last year. I have been stalking this pair for weeks, looking and waiting for the huge triangle break out. We have
had that break out now, as well as a break and close above a huge psychological
resistance level. I took the A/J LONG earlier
at 86.795. I have moved my stop to b/e
given that this was an unconfirmed trade so, at least I am risk free.
Wednesday 29/4 (11.30 am)
I have taken the A/J long. More of a revenge trade I suspect. Not a TS signal yet, though one seems to be forming. If the USDX bounces from here then the A/J could well be a triple top. It's just that I should have still been in this from the 86 level.
Wednesday 29/4 (11 am)
Didn't I, didn't, I didn't I....been saying for weeks...the USDX will probably try and test the 78 level?
Well......... I've just had a 4 hr candle close on my indices charts. The ‘double bottom’ opportunity, with any promise of a reversal bounce, has been blown, at least on the 4 hr chart that is. I think things could move quite quickly from this point.
Of course it now has to do battle with the 78 level, daily 200 EMA.
I’ve had a TS signal to short the USD/SGD BUT I would wait for confirmation until the
trend line break and, also, until the 4 hr candle close.
This will be 1 pm for me for my trading platform, that is, 2 hours away from now.
I don't trade the Loonie but, if I did, I would be watching this closely too. I would expect a lower trend line break if the USDX breaks below the 78 level. Price could bounce and re-treat too if the USDX fails to break this significant level though.
I don't trade the Loonie but, if I did, I would be watching this closely too. I would expect a lower trend line break if the USDX breaks below the 78 level. Price could bounce and re-treat too if the USDX fails to break this significant level though.
Wednesday 29/2/12 (9 am)
I've been to breakfast and, now that I'm back, I see that the USDX is still at the 78.25 level. The stock market closed above the psych level of 1300 today though and this will surely be a day of 'do or die', one way or the other. The USDX and EURX charts look exactly as they did when I posted earlier this morning so I'm not bothering to load them again!
There is an important announcement about the LTRO (Long Term Re-financing Orientation) out later today at 10.15 GMT. I don't expect much action until then. I found this comment on Forex Live interesting:
Do we try and trigger the 1.3500 barriers before LTRO or after?
Written by Jamie Coleman
February 28, 2012 at 20:22 GMT
February 28, 2012 at 20:22 GMT
I think if we are anywhere above 1.3450 when the LTRO results are announced we will trade through 1.3500, no matter what, to trigger the barriers during the liquidity vacuum that will accompany the announcement.
A large tender will be spun as a euro positive as the banking system, and therefore sovereign debt markets. will be liquid for the foreseeable future. A small tender will be spun as a sign that banks don’t need large amounts liquidity. The proverbial heads I win, tails you lose scenario
No new TS signals on any of the pairs yet but they're all lining themselves up to be ready to reveal the next trend. Up, down, don't know, don't care BUT, when I see it, I'll trade it!
I'm sitting here watching the enormous tussle as the USDX tries to stay above the 78.25 level, half way between that last S/R level at 78.5 and the final one before oblivion at 78. I've just had a 4 hr candle close on the indices. I'm wondering if I'm the only pathetic soul getting some amusement out of this at 7am on a wet Wednesday morning. Today we have, not the forecast of just rain but, an 'extreme weather event' being predicted. Weather speak just ticked a notch or two down here. So, will the USDX bounce from here forming a double bottom or keep going down? Time, as they say, and another 4 hr candle will tell.
Wednesday 29/2/12 (6 am)
I take the greatest pleasure out of the simplest things of late. I think having a major illness might do that to you. At the moment though, I am positively excited by the current chart action! For once, I wasn't left behind sleeping whilst the action happened during my night.
It looked to me last night that we might be headed back to 'risk off'. That is, with a rising USD. The charts now, whilst there is still no new trend, seem more open and could even be pointing back to 'risk on'. Mixed US data has kept the USD from free falling though. I have altered my bottom trend line on the USDX to better reflect current support. This could be a double bottom for the USDX, for sure, but it's getting closer to the point where it's going to have to make up its mind and either rally or fall.
There is still no clear trend direction on the major pairs just yet BUT they are setting up very nicely to reveal the next trend when it does kick in. This is what has me so excited here! For most pairs, the + and -DMI lines are below 20 and some also have the ADX under 20. Also, many have price sitting near major trend lines. It doesn't get much easier than this! My biggest problem now? Which ones do I choose. I'll have more of a look and update later when I get back from b'fast with my girlfriend.
PS: I just also noticed that the trend line breaks I said to watch for on the metals kicked in whilst I slept. Silver took off for 150 pips! and gold for 130 pips! These were TS signals + clear trend line/channel breaks.
PS: I just also noticed that the trend line breaks I said to watch for on the metals kicked in whilst I slept. Silver took off for 150 pips! and gold for 130 pips! These were TS signals + clear trend line/channel breaks.
Tuesday 28/2/12 (9 pm)
The indices still aren't revealing too much. The USDX hasn't broken down below its support line. I've re-drawn some lines in for the EURX so that it is forming an ascending wedge now.
I have been sitting here doing some things but keeping an eye on the A/J as well. Waiting to see if it would close above 97. It didn't quite make it. This pair could go either way from this critical level. Price could fall away if the sentiment reverts to 'risk off', thereby confirming a double top. Or price could keep going up and possible close above the 97 on the next candle close. I'll be asleep by then though. Not happy!
Given I don't have a clear view of a trend at the moment I will not place any trades. I run the risk of missing signals during my night but, that's the way it is for now.
There are no new TS signals on any of the other pairs or the metals so, I should take this lack of trend as a warning too.
Tuesday 28/2/12 (5 pm)
The trend line I had drawn on the
USDX has been broken but the subsequent move has been minimal. I think the 78 level is such a deterrent that
it is holding the index up, even from a distance! I don’t have a full TS signal to SHORT the
index either.
The EURX too has broken up above
its trend line but I’m thinking really the safer play would be to wait and see
if it can clear the huge hurdle in the daily 200 EMA now at 105.75. I’m also some way off yet from getting a TS
signal to LONG on this index, a point not to be ignored!
E/U: it, too, has broken the flag trend line but, like with the
EURX, I think I might wait to see if this pair can clear the daily 200 EMA now
at 1.35. I also don’t have a TS signal
to LONG this pair but one seems to be brewing.
A/U: stuck in a triangle still and no TS signal yet either. One is close to forming here though too.
E/J: It has also broken up through the flag trend line but no TS
signal here either. One seems a bit far
off too, at this stage at least.
A/J: I am trying to breathe deeply and through this one still! Anyway, it is bouncing along sideways and no
TS signal here either. I'm thinking that if it can close and hold above 87 that I will take this trade again then. 87 is quite a strong previous S/R level.
USD/SGD: Getting more and more tempting as time goes by. Setting up nicely for a trend line break
still and with the ADX below the 20 level still, a new trend will be easy to
spot!
U/J and Swissie: I’m leaving these.
Gold and Silver: both setting up, eventually, for trend line breaks. No TS signal on either of these yet though.
Summary: the lack of TS signals across most of the pairs is telling
me something. That is: to be patient and
wait until the markets decide where they want to head and, then, catch the
trend when it does eventually start.
Tuesday 28/2/12 (1 pm)
No new TS signals yet. Also, no new clear trend direction. My indices 4hr candle doesn't close for another 2 hours though.
Tuesday 28/2/12 (12.30 pm)
I've just cancelled my A/J long order. There seems to be some Yen issues with all Yen pairs falling against the main trend. I smell BoJ maybe? Anyway, I'm not getting involved in any manipulated pairs...just for the time being at least. I'll keep an eye on the A/J still though.
Hmmm...just spied this note on FX Live:
Tuesday 28/2/12 (9 am)
Hmmm...just spied this note on FX Live:
USD/JPY edges lower as dealers anticipate fixing flows Written by Sean Lee
February 28, 2012 at 00:42 GMT
We are fast approaching the end of the month, and corporate flows are more likely to be JPY positive around this time. USD/JPY and the main JPY crosses are edging lower into the Tokyo fix as dealers anticipate these selling flows and obviously want them as cheap as possible on their books. I’m not hearing about any major interest, so I expect a mild rebound once the Fix is over.
There is still no clear new trend on the indices just yet. The flag patterns (posted earlier) are still in play. I have actually also dropped down to the 15 min chart to try and draw some trend lines in to clearly define the boundaries for these flags. I would want to see the EURX break up above this line AND the USDX break below its line before I would think that we have gone back to 'risk on'.
I had earlier jumped into an A/J long, and, then I jumped out again! I really should wait for the new trend confirmation first but, having said that, I have left my buy limit order in for 86. My concern is though, that by the time any sign of possible further 'risk on' comes through, the A/J will have taken off with out me. I really need to need to listen to what my kids would say to me about the A/J issue though...they would roll their eyes and moan...."oh mum, build a bridge!"
Well, the indices have bounced abit due to more Wacky Races impact. Good data from the US was stymied by continuing Greek debt woes. The USDX is still bouncing around the 78.5 level but looks more and more like forming a bear flag. The EURX is stuck below the daily 200 EMA near 106 but also looks like it's forming a bull flag! I have shaded these in on the charts so that you can see what I mean. BTW: some of the pairs are forming flag patterns too: E/U, E/J and the Swissie.
Essentially, then, we're still none the wiser about the new trend. There are no new TS signals just yet which, as I said last night, reflects this indecision evident in the flag patterns.
The annoying thing for me today is that the A/J is back up at 86.5 area. I'm annoyed, yet again, that I got myself kicked out of this trade due to tightening my stop too soon. This strength has me suspicious that 'risk on' could continue. I have put in a buy limit order to purchase the A/J at 86. Wishful thinking most likely though. I'm going to watch it though as I don't want it to get away without me, especially as I was stalking it for so long!!!
We have had a lot of volatility due to the indices struggling at their respective S/R levels. The USDX has been struggling to get back over the 78.5 level and the EURX to get over the daily 200 EMA at around the 106 level. I have been stopped out of both my A/J and E/J long trades due to this volatility.
I won't be convinced of a switch to 'risk off' though unless the USDX can break back and hold above the 78.5 level. Alternatively, a continued 'risk on' trend would be convincing if the EURX manages to break above and hold over the 106 level. This struggle will no doubt evolve whilst I am asleep though. I will have to wait for tomorrow to gauge what the new trend sentiment is.
The picture is further complicated though. The USDX currently looks like it could be forming a bear flag pattern and the EURX forming a bull flag pattern. Hmmmm...clear as mud! I think I'll sleep on it!
The picture is further complicated though. The USDX currently looks like it could be forming a bear flag pattern and the EURX forming a bull flag pattern. Hmmmm...clear as mud! I think I'll sleep on it!
PS: No new TS signals have formed yet either...not even on the A/U even though the ADX looks developed. This, in itself, is a sign of the indecision that seems to plaguing the pairs today.
Summary: E/J long 356 pips max (from the half today) and A/J long 23 pips max (from half last week).
Ok, so I've been stopped out of my E/J long trade but I made over 350 pips so I can't complain. I do notice though, for now, the fall has stalled and price is trending back up. Had I left my stop at the 108.4 level from this morning, which was also the daily pivot, I would still be in this trade. It may well keep reversing overnight. Who knows but I freely admit that I continue to struggle with the placement of stops.
I'm still in the A/J long. I won't enter any new trades tonight. I want to wait and see what the outcome of this struggle between the EURX and USDX is and what the new trend for this week will be. At his stage, it is looking like a shift back to 'risk off'. That is ok as I was prepared for this reversal, if it eventuates, at these levels. The action will no doubt occur whilst I am asleep!
Ok...I'm micro managing again! I said I wouldn't do this! Both the EURX and USDX are bouncing near their key levels of 78.5 and 106 respectively. I had tightened my stop on the E/J today from 108.4 up to 108.9. I have now taken it back again to 108.5. I would rather compromise some pips than get stopped out of a trade due to some momentary volatility. If the 108.5 level doesn't hold then I would still have made around 350 pips. This could be a trend turning point and that's ok. I was prepared that this could be the case. I'd rather be stopped out on an obvious trend change though than just some short term volatility.
I've moved my E/J stop to 108.7 now. Still wanting to lock in as many pips but give it some room whilst the USDX battles at the 78.5 level.
Monday 27/2 (5.20 pm)
The USDX is trying hard to push back up over the 78.5 level. The EURX is still trading under the 106 level and daily 200 EMA. No new trend evident still so, no new trades. The indices could bounce around at these levels for a bit this week given that they are such significant levels for them.
Forgot to update earlier when I raced out to cricket: I have moved stop down on E/J...to 108.8. I wanted to give it just a bit more room whilst the USDX is still butting up against the 78.5 level. See snap below. I'm still probably going to get stopped out soon though anyway. It has now broken below 109 so the support in the whole number has gone.
Forgot to update earlier when I raced out to cricket: I have moved stop down on E/J...to 108.8. I wanted to give it just a bit more room whilst the USDX is still butting up against the 78.5 level. See snap below. I'm still probably going to get stopped out soon though anyway. It has now broken below 109 so the support in the whole number has gone.
Monday 27/2 (2.50 pm)
The USDX has put in a bit of a rally today but seems to have lost a bit of steam over the last hour or so. No clear change of trend yet so, no new trades.
My E/J and A/J long trades are still running as their support levels, of 109 and 86 respectively, have held so far.
My indices chart platform has just opened. The daily 200 EMA on the EURX is now at 105.76 and price is wedged just under that strong resistance level. The USDX is similarly wedged half way between the 78 and 78.5 level. I will continue to wait and see what the sentiment will be for this week.
I have moved my stop on my E/J long trade to 108.9. That means I have locked in 400 pips on this trade now. I have also moved my stop on the A/J long to just under my entry of 86 to 85.9. This places my stop just below the trend line that is supporting price, for the time being at least. The AUD is currently a bit rattled after the recent Prime Ministerial challenge.
I'm not expecting too much chart action today until Europe comes on line.
The market has just opened here and, at this very early stage, it seems like it is still 'risk on', for the time being at least. That is, a falling USD and a rising EUR &AUD etc.
I currently am still in two 'risk on' trades:
- Long E/J from 104.9. I've got my stop at 108.4 and the pair is up now at 109.7. I'll move my stop up to under the 109 level if the sentiment is maintained. This trade is up approx 475 pips!
- Long A/J from 86. My stop is at 86 as well. This pair has 'gapped' up and is currently trading at 87.2. I'm not moving my stop just yet though. I have mentioned before that this pair is viewed by some as the 'flagship' pair for 'risk on' so, if this sentiment does continue, I don't want to lose my place in this trade. This trade is up approx 120 pips!
I am not entering any new trades just yet. My charts with the indices are not open yet and I want to assess the USDX and EURX and see how they trend in these early stages of the week. Price is just under a critical resistance level in 106 for the EURX and just above a major support level in 78 for the USDX. These could prove to be turning points for these indices and, thus, why I will wait to see how they trend before entering new trades. They also could prove to be watershed levels too so I'll be watching these levels VERY closely. There could be quite a run if price breaks through these levels on both of the indices!
We have the added complication of a Prime Ministerial leadership challenge, and subsequent vote, in Australia today at 10am. I expect that the A/U will move after this result.
Basically, my preference for this early stage of the week is as follows, depending on market sentiment. These trades would be based on new TS signals and, possibly, with trend line breaks:
If Risk On: look to get in on the A/U long, E/U long or USD/SGD short. (see below about USD/SGD.
If Risk Off: look to get in on E/U short, USD/SGD long or A/U short.
NB: I won't short any Yen pairs and I'm also being careful with CHF pairs too because of potential intervention.
USD/SGD:
I had said in my review over the weekend that this pair held little interest for me. Well, I had another look at this pair last night when the family were out at the cricket. I removed my old trend lines and just looked at the raw chart. Then, a new pattern emerged for me. I drew new trend lines in for this and have come up with the chart below. The added bonus here is that the ADX is trading below the 20 level. Thus, I'll be watching this pair for a new TS signal and a break of trend line, either up or down.
Remember: put bias and opinion aside, trade what you see!
