Monday, April 14, 2014

Trading Week: April 14 Perfect storm?

Mon 14th April (8.45 pm)
Indices: the USDX continues to hold up while there is clear pressure on the EURX:


S&P500 daily Ichimoku: there could be some support coming in from the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud: 

Silver: is starting to struggle with the stronger USD:

Gold: this is struggling too and can't get over the daily 200 EMA. No new signal has evolved here yet: 

AUD/NZD: that 1.09 'neck line' level is approaching:

E/U: under pressure:

E/J: no break of the daily triangle yet: 

A/U: I do think I can hear this singing....

A/J: watch the trend lines here:

U/J: bouncing off support just now:

EUR/AUD: a new TS signal trying to form here but not just yet. This might need the 11 pm candle:

Remember, this is now over 500 pips along on the journey towards a 700 pip triangle break:

Mon 14th April (2.30 pm)
The USDX bouncing off support, some currency jaw-boning by the ECB President over the w/e and renewed tension in the Ukriane seem to be combining as a perfect storm to upset the advance made by the Euro over recent weeks. The A/U, Kiwi, U/J and Cable seem to be ignoring the EUR woes, for the time being at least, and are holding up fairly well in mixed Asian trade. As I type, the Nikkei, Kospi and Hang Seng are trading a bit higher but the ASX is lower. There seems to be a bit of a 'wait and see what the US session does' feel to these markets. The S&P500 and NASDAQ closed just above daily support trend lines but another rout with these could see support broken that might thereby tip the scales towards greater and more widespread bearish momentum. 

Indices: The USDX has bounced off the support of the 79 region. This forms the bottom level of the trading range 79 - 81.5 that has contained the index for the last 6 months:

USDX daily:
USDX 4 hr:

EURX: this has responded by pulling back after last week's triangle break:

EURX daily:

EURX 4hr:

Open TS signals: No new TS signals anywhere just yet.

E/U: This TS signal has closed off now after w/e comments from ECB Draghi. I had warned about this in my w/e write up:

Silver and Gold: Both of these metals are shaping up with interesting technical chart patterns and these are continuing for now, even though the USD is on the rise today. 

Silver: is holding up fairly well with the rise in the USD and forming up into a symmetrical triangle o the daily chart. This ties in with the chart of SLV that was tweeted over the w/e and that caused a bit of interest:

Silver weekly:

Silver daily: 

Silver 4 hr:

Gold: Is trading higher today but still struggling to get over the daily 200 EMA. I do suspect that if Gold clears this barrier then it might be off and running after that. A new TS signal is trying to build here. The weekly chart shows the bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern that is still forming up:

Gold weekly:

Gold daily:

Gold 4 hr:

Other FX:
E/J: this gapped lower but the daily triangle has not been broken:

A/U: The Aussie is hovering under the 0.94 S/R level and seems quite unfazed by the risk off sentiment evident with the E/U and with stocks and the rising USD. For now that is!

A/J: continuing in the descending broadening wedge and adding a sense of symmetry to the overall chart!

Cable: is holding above the support of the monthly 200 EMA for now.

Kiwi: is holding above the monthly triangle trend line: 

U/J daily: no real movement here yet: 

AUD/NZD: nothing much here yet either: 

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