Thursday, May 1, 2014

Trading Week 1st May

Thurs 1st May (10.15 am)
Chinese: Manufacturing PMI due out today. I wonder if this will get the A/U moving out of its trading channel?

Thurs 1st May (7.15 am) E/U & Cable print bullish levels for their monthly candle close.

Positive US sentiment dragged the broader markets towards a 'risk on' bias overnight. The DJIA made its first record close for the year. Weaker US GDP data seems to have been shrugged off as 'weather related' and, rather, positive jobs growth and Fed comments were harnessed to drive the major US stock indices higher:

S&P500 30 min: a great trading opportunity here:

S&500 daily: getting close to 'make or break' time here it seems. The index is pushing up against the upper trend line of the flag pattern. An upwards break here would suggest bullish continuation but, then, there would be obvious 'quadruple top' jitters! Today is the first day of the trading month and, as noted here many times before, these days are, more often than not, positive for 'risk on'. This will provide traders with some interesting watching during the next US session.

S&P500 Cloud: Price is still above the Ichimoku Cloud but there is no bullish cross:

Indices: the surprise must be that, even with more QE tapering, the USD hasn't risen.


EURX: still congested here:

Ichimoku Indices:  Price is trapped near the daily Ichimoku Cloud for the USDX and IN the Cloud for the EURX. This explains the lack of 'risk on' momentum signals across the FX pairs, despite the 'risk on' enjoyed across stocks:

USDX Cloud:

EURX Cloud: 

Kiwi: this has triggered a new TS signal off my 3 am candle but price is in the 4hr Cloud and so I'm ignoring this, as per my rules. I have 'arrowed' the candle. Price is above the daily, weekly and monthly Cloud though so a close above the 4hr Cloud would be a rather bullish signal:

Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi 4 hr Cloud: 

AUD/NZD: this triggered a new TS signal off my 3 am candle too but is outside the Bollinger band and so not valid. I have also 'arrowed' this candle. Price broke down from the 4hr triangle as well and this move would probably have been better played off a breakout from this pattern:

Other FX: no other new TS signals despite the movement on some pairs BUT I attribute some of this back to the situation on the EURX Ichimoku index.

E/U: no new TS signal but above the key S/R levels of the 61.8% fib and the 1.38. The monthly candle close above the 1.38 is a major achievement! It seems only a matter of time before the monthly triangle trend line break will be attempted:

E/J: still triangle bound:

A/U: channel bound: 
A/J: ditto:

Cable: higher but no TS signal. There is 'red flag' PMI data later today that might help here. The monthly close above the monthly 200 EMA AND the 1.68 level cannot be ignore though. This is a major achievement here.

U/J: still stuck below the monthly 200 EMA and didn't share the recent joy that the S&P500 enjoyed: 

GBP/JPY: another one to watch with GBP PMI data later tonight:

EUR/AUD: choppy: 

GBP/AUD: also worth watching with GBP PMI data tonight. Note the shift down with the 'monthly pivot' given the month candle close. Watch for any trend line break here to continue the weekly chart pattern:

G/A 4hr:

G/A weekly:

Silver: testing the monthly support trend line:

Gold: choppy below the $1,300 level:

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