Trading Week 30th April

Wed April 30th (7.40 pm)
Indices: The EURX is putting in a bounce despite the weaker than expected European CPI data. Other EUR data has been positive though and this seems to have dominated the most recent sentiment:

USDX: the monthly pivot continues to be strong resistance for the index:

TSLA: this stock has been brought to my attention. Not cheap but the chart pattern looks interesting as price consolidates in what looks to me like a 'Bull Flag' of sorts:

NB: It is end of month today so watch tomorrow for completed April monthly candles.

I mistakenly thought it was 'end of quarter' but have corrected this. I blame the headache I've battled all day today and...... which is still winning.

Wed April 30th (5 pm)
Aussie Markets: The XJO, ASX 200, has managed to close out the month above the key S/R level of 5,480 and this is a significant achievement:

The major heavy weight index of the S&P500 is trading up just under the upper triangle trend line of the flag pattern BUT there is no clear new direction here just yet:

I am still seeing many FX pairs, stocks, FX indices and stock indices hovering and chopping around at pivotal levels. I've received very few FX signals over recent weeks and the few I have had have been choppy. I still consider that a major move is brewing, as per my article last week and as discussed over the w/e. I am watching and waiting for clues as to which direction this move may end up heading and I'm watching trend lines for clues.

GBP/JPY: the false triangle break here, with no follow through or momentum, has resulted in me drawing new S/R tend lines:

G/J daily:

G/J 4 hr:

AUD/NZD: ditto here:

Wed April 30th (6.50 am)

Indices: Weaker than expected German CPI data has rattled the EURX and a potential bullish triangle breakout has subsequently reversed. The USDX has recovered a bit of ground:

EURX:

USDX:

Index Cloud charts: these show how the indices are struggling to break free from their daily Cloud zones and, thus, trading is best avoided at times like these:

EURX Cloud:

USDX Cloud:

S&P500: stocks have traded higher on positive data and earnings. It is still not clear whether the bearish 'Triple Top' of 'Bull Flag' will triumph here though:

S&P500 Cloud: Price is still above the Cloud for now:

TS Signals:

E/J: the weaker German CPI data undermined this trade. After reaching as high as 50 pips it has closed for a loss of 15 pips:

Kiwi: was not a preferred signal and I left this BUT it closed off too at -30.

Other FX: no new TS signals. It may be best and safest to wait to trade until next week. Why?

• The FX index charts are congested around their daily Ichimoku Cloud suggesting further choppiness.
• There is batch of US data still to come this week ( GDP, FOMC and NFP).
• Also, a BoJ monetary policy statement to come later today.
• There is a holiday in much of Europe and China on Thursday.
• There is red flag EUR CPI data on Thursday. 

There might be some clarity and a more obvious direction on the Index charts, with stocks and FX after all of this.

E/U: lower after German CPI. Back below the 61.8% fib level:

A/U: still channel bound: 

 A/J: ditto

Cable: still above 1.68 but not moving too far. The USD might impact here and US data might now be the trigger for movement (FOMC, GDP and NFP)

U/J: still struggling at the monthly 200 EMA. The weak signal failed and this, like the Cable, may also need the batch of US data to get it going. Also, there is red flag BoJ data out later today:

GBP/JPY: no new TS signal BUT there has been a trend line break and price is above the monthly 200 EMA. There is BoJ data later today that may impact here.

EUR/AUD: choppy. The TS signal was not valid here but failed anyway. 

GBP/AUD: has stalled at the resistance zone created by the trend line and the monthly pivot:

AUD/NZD: triangle still forming up:

Silver: is still 'planking' along the support trend line from the monthly triangle:

Silver 4 hr: 

Silver monthly:

Gold: chopping sideways as well:

Trading Week 29th April

Tue 29th April (7.05 pm)

GBP: GDP data was worse than expected and so the GBP has fallen. No new signals or breakouts just yet:

Cable:

GBP/JPY: no triangle breakout yet: 

GBP/AUD: no channel breakout yet:

U/J: this has tried to form a new TS signal but is very weak AND the U/J is in the daily Cloud so I will leave it. Price is trying to break free above the monthly 200 EMA though. A hold above this and a break above the daily Cloud would be bullish:

Tue 29th April (6.25 pm)

AUD/NZD: one to keep an eye on too:

Tue 29th April (5.30 pm)

Aussie Stocks: I have updated my Aussie Stocks page.

TS Signals:
E/J:moving higher:

Kiwi: was not my preferred trade but at least is positive:

Ones to watch: GBP pairs are a bit frisky ahead of GDP data due out in one hour. I'd wait until after that news:

Cable:

GBP/JPY: has made for a triangle break. We need to see where this candle closes though:

GBP/AUD: pushing up towards the trend line and monthly pivot resistance area:

Tue 29th April (3 pm)

Aussie Stocks: I have updated my Aussie Stocks page.

GBP/AUD update: The 3 pm candle turned bearish and so this avoided any possible new TS long signal. This is not surprising as price is near resistance now in the form of the bear trend line and the monthly pivot:

There is red flag GBP GDP data out later tonight which may trigger some movement here and also with the Cable and the GBP/JPY. Both of these are trading near key S/R levels:

Cable: at the 1.68 level:

GBP/JPY: at the triangle trend line and the monthly 200 EMA:

TS Signals:

The only two valid TS signals are the E/J and Kiwi. Both are still trading in positive territory at the moment.

E/J:

Kiwi:

Tue 29th April (11.10 am)

Open TS Signals:These are ticking along in positive territory:

E/J:

Kiwi: even the Kiwi signal is now positive!

New TS signal: 

EUR/AUD: this came off my 11 am candle but the candle is outside the Bollinger band and so not technically valid. I've noted it here though:

Other FX:

GBP/AUD: this is now trying to form a new TS signal and make for the upper trend line. I'll update after the 3pm close: 

Aussie: heading lower but no new TS signal:

Tue 29th April (10.20 am)

EUR/AUD: this is trying to form a new TS signal BUT the candle will fall outside the Bollinger band:

GBP/AUD: no new signal forming here BUT price is getting closer to the upper trend line of the wedge pattern. Watch for any breakout above this and the monthly pivot:

Tue 29th April (9.40 am)

Dean Malone just posted a video on the value of the 200 Moving Average. 

I am a huge fan of the 200 EMA.

Tue 29th April (9.30 am)

Kiwi: Trade Balance data was positive but this hasn't done much to lift the Kiwi:

E/J: this TS signal is heading in the right direction at least!

Tue 29th April (7 am)

It has been another choppy session as exemplified by the 30 min chart of the S&P500:

S&P500 30 min:

S&P500 daily: whilst I'm on the S&P500, the daily chart is still showing how there is no clear direction here just yet. The bearish 'triple top' is still in play as much as the potential 'Bull Flag'! You will need trend line breaks to help here:

S&P500 Ichimoku: the index is still above the Cloud which is bullish for now:

Indices: both are still choppy:

USDX:

EURX: no triangle breakout yet: 

Index Ichimoku Cloud charts: both indices are having a hard time breaking free from their daily Clouds:

USDX Cloud:

EURX Cloud:

Silver and Gold struggled with the bit of the uptick in the USD:

Silver: still 'planking' along the support of the monthly triangle trend line:

Gold struggling at the 4 hr 200 EMA:

TS signals: there have been 2 new TS signal off my 3 am candles.

E/J: I received a new TS signal off my 3 am candle. I'm not too convinced here though given the lack of general movement BUT price is above the Cloud on the 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly chart so I have taken it.

Kiwi: this also triggered off a new signal off my 3 am candle but it looks less convincing. Price is below the 4hr Cloud but just above the daily Cloud and so this may struggle with that resistance. There is red flag data here soon too:

Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi weekly: I will remind you though that I noted a bearish pattern on the weekly chart two weeks ago. This was a bearish 'Railway Track' pattern. This may have been a better trade to have just taken off that weekly candle close as price has now moved on in favour of this trade:

Other FX: just a whole lot of more choppy action:

AUD/NZD: keep watch on this as the Kiwi data comes out. A weak data print might get this going:

E/U: there was a wedge breakout but no new TS signal formed so I have deleted this 4hr chart pattern. Price is edging up closer to the top triangle trend line from the monthly chart pattern though and is also above the 61.8% fib level:

A/U: channel bound:

A/J: ditto:

Cable: having trouble clearing the 1.68:

U/J: still trading under the monthly 200 EMA. No surprises there!

GBP/JPY: getting very interesting:

EUR/AUD: choppy:

GBP/AUD: this keeps chopping higher but without triggering a new TS signal. I noted over the w/e how this is setting up in another trading wedge, similar to one from a few weeks earlier. This may be a better trade to take IF there is a channel breakout:

G/A 4hr:

 G/A daily:

G/A weekly: