Thursday, February 27, 2014

Trading Week 24/02/14: AUD/USD

Thur 27th Feb (9.05 pm)
Kiwi: a new TS signal has almost formed. It might take until the 1 am candle to form up completely though. Price is above the Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart BUT there is a daily chart resistance line just above price. It would be preferable to see a break and hold above this level. I do love technical analysis but I will have to wait to see this one in the morning!

Kiwi 4 hr:
Kiwi daily:

A/U: it seems that the 0.89 has held up rice, yet again. Will this level hold for the US session though? That might depend on what the S&P500 does so I'd be keeping one eye on that!

E/U: that 1.365 S/R level is holding price for now. Again, the S&P500 might carry some influence here during the US session:

Thur 27th Feb (7.40 pm)
QANTAS: I couldn't agree more! 

Thur 27th Feb (7.20 pm)
A/U: Yep...we've had a triangle break down AND a new TS signal BUT I'm still wary with possible support coming in from the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 0.89 level. Price has just bounced up off this area for now:

The thing that is bothering me is that there are no new TS signals anywhere else!

Thur 27th Feb (2.50 pm) AUD/USD

Aussie: The QANTAS bad news today seems to have spilled over negative sentiment to the AUD. This tags along with some weaker than expected data that was also released today. This has triggered a new TS signal on the A/U off my 1 pm candle BUT this signal is not valid just yet. The reason for this is that the A/U is trading within the bottom edge of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Interestingly, the bottom edge of the daily Cloud is right near the major S/R level of 0.89. Price is still about 34 pips above this level at the moment though but this 0.89 region might offer some support to price; something it has done a fair bit over recent weeks. Thus, I would not be shorting the A/U until after a close and hold below the 0.89:

A/U 4 hr: a triangle breakdown and a new TS signal forming BUT beware of the potential support that might be offered by the 0.89 level:

A/U daily Cloud: shows the bottom edge of the daily Cloud near the 0.89 level. The bottom of the Cloud can offer some support to price action: 

A/U daily: A breach of the 0.89 level would void the developing inverse H&S pattern on the daily chart: 

AUD Cross Pairs: further AUD weakness will most likely void these developing patterns too:

AUD/NZD: Sitting at major support. A break and hold below the 1.075 would void the bullish 'inverse H&S':

GBP/AUD: A break and hold above the monthly pivot region would void the bearish 'H&S' :

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