Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Trading Week 10/02/14 (3)

Tuesday 11th Feb (9.30 pm)
New TS signals: off my 9 pm candles. Would be best to wait to trade until after Fed speech though:


Tuesday 11th Feb (7.30 pm)
AUD: so much for my concern with the two new TS signals on the A/U and A/J. They're off to the races!


AUD/NZD: I've already had a bullish 'inverse H&S' play out here on the 4 hr chart but a fellow trader just pointed out the possibility of one on the daily chart. Might be so...neck line seems to be around the 1.09 region. Worth watching for:
A/N 4 hr

A/N daily:

EUR/USD: this is looking very bullish as it continues it breakout above the resistance of the daily bear trend line and the 1.365 S/R level: 
E/U 4hr:

E/U daily:

Tuesday 11th Feb (5.30 pm)
Open TS signals: these are all in the black now and I'd have stops to entry, at a minimum, ahead of tonight's Fed news.

E/J: still struggling under resistance. You may recall that I had suggested this 140 region as a take profit on this signal when it first evolved last week. I'm keeping my trade open though:


New TS signals:these came off my 5 pm candle BUT I wouldn't be taking these, if at all, until AFTER the Fed news. Taper talk could easily spark a rally with the USD and undermine these signals.

Other pairs: 
E/U: has made a bullish break above the daily bear trend line. Also note that it has made a close above the previous S/R level of 1.365!

U/J: marching on the spot ahead of the Yellen speech:

Gold: this continues to trade higher but be wary ahead of Fed speech. Any rally with the USD could undermine Gold's efforts:

S&P500: has not avoided the possible bearish H&S, albeit a wonky one, just yet!

Tuesday 11th Feb (2.30 pm): A technical look at the USDX before the Janet Yellen speech:

USDX: The USD index is at a critical support level ahead of the first monetary policy speech by the new Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen. The USDX is hovering just above the weekly 200 EMA, a level that has supported the index since the beginning of the year. This support can be easily seen on the 4hr chart below:

USDX 4 hr:

USDX daily: this chart shows how range bound the index has been, really, since November last year. Price has essentially been trading in a channel formed by the daily 200 EMA above price and the weekly 200 EMA below price: 

USDX weekly: there is still a bit of a bearish 'double top' look to this chart at the moment. Any breach of the weekly 200 EMA support suggests a visit down to the 79 region might be in store: 

USDX monthly: this chart shows how the fib levels of the last bear move (2010-2011) are fairly important:

Gold: any continuing USD weakness will most likely help Gold but, obviously, a bullish USD might undermine its progress. For now though, the bullish inverse 'Head and Shoulder' pattern looks to be forming up on Gold:
Gold 4 hr:

Gold daily: 

Gold weekly: 

Gold monthly: the 61.8% fib has offered some good support lately:

I would not even try to predict how Janet Yellen would approach this policy meeting nor, for that matter, how the broader markets and the USD might react. I'm simply stating the current technical level of the USDX and noting the strong support of the weekly 200 EMA that lies just below current price and the resistance of the daily 200 EMA that lies above price. A clear break out from this channel would help to decide matters and most likely trigger some bigger moves across the currency pairs. 

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