Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Trading Week 10/02/14 (2)

Tuesday 11th Feb (8.50 am)
S&P500: This index looks like it is bracing itself ahead of the Janet Yellen speech too. The 1,800 level is shaping up to be a key demarcation point. A rejection here might induce the bearish H&S but a hold and close above this level would have to be taken as a bullish signal. The index closed just below 1,800 today:

Tuesday 11th Feb (6.40 am)
Indices: These haven't drifted too far and both are clearly waiting to see what the new Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, has to say on matters when she makes her first monetary policy report on Tue (US time). Wednesday will be busy too as there are speeches to come from BoE Gov Carney and ECB President Draghi and Chinese Trade Balance data. These events need monitoring as they have the potential to impact risk sentiment and trigger significant currency pair moves. 

USDX: does have a bit of a bullish descending wedge look to it at the moment:

EURX: is holding above the key S/R level of the monthly 200 EMA:

Gold: has been the winner for Monday though. I noted in my w/e analysis how the weekly candle had closed in a potentially bullish 'railway track' pattern. This w/e image is re-printed here: 

Monday was a bullish day for Gold and the current weekly candle reveals as much. This trend will need watching with Janet Yellen's speech though as any surge in USD strength could undermine Gold's heavy lifting efforts: 

Open TS signals:
E/J: struggling a bit though now under the resistance of a daily trend line, the monthly pivot and the psychological and whole number 140 level. This signal has delivered 120 pips though:

Kiwi: not so lucky:

Cable: not going anywhere yet just now either. Clearly waiting to see what the Yellen and Carney speeches reveal:

A/J: this signal has now closed after delivering up to 100 pips: 

Other pairs:
E/U: this is struggling under a daily trend line and the previous S/R level of 1.365. It has broken up through the 4 hr Ichimoku Cloud but is now struggling in the daily Cloud. Janet Yellen and / or Draghi may give this pair the kick start it needs to move from here, either up or down:
E/U 4hr:
E/U 4 hr Cloud:
E/U daily Cloud:

A/U:  This is in a similar situation as the E/U. The Aussie has broken above the 4hr Cloud but is now struggling under the daily Cloud. Again, USD strength might dictate the Aussie's next move. Also, the Chinese Trade Balance data out on Wednesday which will impact here too: 
A/U 4 hr: 

A/U 4 hr Cloud:

A/U daily Cloud:

U/J: this continues to struggle under the monthly 200 EMA. I wouldn't be expecting too much movement here until after the Janet Yellen speech:

Caution is needed if trying to trade 'technically' off 4 hr charts this week given the number of potentially high impact speeches. 

Forex Tell: Please remember to check out the new Forex Tell website. 

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