Friday, February 21, 2014

Trading Week 17/02/14 (5)

Fri 21st Feb (8.35 am) Lessons from the Ichimoku Cloud:
A/U, A/J and Kiwi TS signals: these signals from late this week have all failed. Annoying... yes but I have delved a bit further to see if there were some clues that could have prevented losses from these signals. I have discussed before about avoiding taking new signals when price is embedded in either the 4hr or daily Ichimoku Cloud and this was the case for each of these 3 signals. 

A/U: has been stick in the daily Cloud: 

A/J: stuck in the 4hr Cloud:

Kiwi: stuck in the 4hr Cloud:

Some TS-type signals from earlier this week, that triggered from outside the Bollinger bands so I discounted them, are also worth noting here too. These non-signals also failed but they, too, had Ichimoku Cloud issues! Price was either in the 4hr or daily Cloud on each of these charts:

E/J daily Cloud
U/J daily Cloud:
EUR/AUD: daily Cloud:

I have written about the phenomenon of TS signals and the Ichimoku Cloud in more detail and this information is loaded on my new web site. I do hope to get this site up and running soon but there are still some issues to be sorted there. Clearly, though, I do need to take more notice of my own trading advice!

Fri 21st Feb (7.20 am)
Bondi Beach was very busy this morning as they are obviously filming an episode of 'Modern Family' there today.

Gold and Silver are getting going now too: watch for any close and hold above their daily 200 EMAs:

Gold 4 hr:

Gold daily:

Silver 4 hr:

Silver daily:

Fri 21st Feb (5.45 am) S&P500 to blame?
Indices:the USDX is pushing higher but running into some resistance as it nears the weekly 200 EMA. The EURX isn't giving up though and is holding up fairly well too:


S&P500: stocks are trading higher even with some weak data overnight. Investors seem to be shrugging this off though as being due to recent bad weather. The S&P500 is a huge market heavy weight and it is currently under a lot of scrutiny and pressure as it navigates a very significant S/R level. There are many market commentators predicting that the index will roll over at this key all time high and trigger a new bear market. I do suspect that much of the broader market choppiness of late is due to the 'to and fro' efforts being seen here of late. This may continue until there is a clear new direction on the S&P500.: 

S&P500 30 min:

S&P500 daily: with over 2 hrs to go the triple top may yet be tested again today!

Silver and Gold: these have not rolled over with the higher USD. They both still have a bit of a 'Bull Flag' look to them and Gold may even be testing its flag:

Open TS signals: the latest batch of signals have been choppy, to say the least:

A/U: didn't get below the 0.89 though anyway:


Others: many other FX pairs are choppy as they try clinging on to key S/R levels:

E/U: trying to hold the 1.37:

E/J:  trying to hold the 61.8% fib:

Cable: trying to hold the monthly 200 EMA:

U/J:  also trying to hold the monthly 200 EMA:

EUR/AUD: trying to get back over the monthly 200 EMA:

AUD/NZD: still brewing here:

GBP/AUD: and possibly here:

The markets seem loathe to trade 'risk off' for any length of time. This may all be a factor of the S&P500, the huge trading instrument index, navigating its key S/R level. General market choppiness might continue until either a clear make or break of this level is achieved. 

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