Friday, February 28, 2014

Trading Week 24/02/14 (5)

Fri 28th Feb (9.30 pm)
USDX: falling heavily:

EURX: major bounce off the monthly 200 EMA support level:

I'd be watching Gold and Silver for follow through if this USD weakness keeps up.
Fri 28th Feb (9.25 pm)
E/U: has taken off!

EUR/AUD: close to forming a new TS signal:

E/J: no new signal soon BUT a triangle and 61.8% fib break looming:

Fri 28th Feb (9.15 pm)
Cable: The TS signal didn't form up fully on the 9 pm candle. It may do so after the 1 am candle though:

There is a bit of USD data tonight and, then, Chinese Manufacturing PMI tomorrow, Saturday.

Fri 28th Feb (8.20 pm)
Kiwi: this TS signal is ticking along:

Cable:  It looks like a new TS signal will form up on my 9 pm candle. A daily, and thus monthly, close above the monthly 200 EMA would be rather bullish....IMHO!

Warning: Traders need to keep an eye on the S&P500 during the US session. Any retreat here could trigger a bit of 'risk off'.

Fri 28th Feb (4.40 pm)
EUR/JPY: weakness is setting in here. Most likely due to the double whammy impact of EUR weakness, stemming from Ukraine concern, and JPY strength, following the earlier positive JPY data:

Fri 28th Feb (4.25 pm)
USD/CNY: there has been a lot of mumblings about price action here and not just on House of Cards! I thought I'd investigate the charts and they are posted below. Clearly, something is going on but I have no clear idea why. I read one suggestion that this may be related to tomorrows PMI release. We shall see!

USD/CNY monthly:

USD/CNY weekly:

USD/CNY daily:

USD/CNY 4 hr:

Fri 28th Feb (3.50 pm)
There seems a distinct shift towards 'risk off' and I can only assume this in response to the situation developing in the Ukraine.

Fri 28th Feb (2.45 pm)
S&P500:price closed above the resistance 'triple top' yesterday but it will be more important to see where price closes on Friday. This is especially so as Friday is the last day of the trading month. Thursday's daily candle was a bullish engulfing candle and the current monthly candle, with one day yet to go, is also printing an essentially bullish engulfing candle as well.

S&P500 daily:

S&P500 monthly:

A close on Friday above the 'triple top' region would be quite a bullish signal but global concern with events in the Ukraine may undermine 'risk appetite' in the coming European and US sessions.

Kiwi: this has now closed up and out of the trading channel but Ukraine concern may moderate this momentum:

Fri 28th Feb (10.25 am)
Kiwi: NZD 'red flag' data in 30 min might help to shape direction for the Kiwi.

Fri 28th Feb (9.25 am)
Kiwi: the Kiwi has failed to close up and out of the daily chart trading channel. I would leave this latest signal until such time as it can manage to close above this resistance:

Fri 28th Feb (6.45 am)
Indices: Technical trading may have been challenging of late but key technical levels have certainly dominated across the indices and FX pairs. This would make trading 'off bounces' quite lucrative for those who trade this way.

USDX: the weekly 200 EMA proved too much resistance for the index and price has bounced back down from here:

EURX:  has bounced up off the major trend line and monthly 200 EMA region:

S&P500: I had mentioned yesterday that traders need to watch US stocks as their path might dictate overall 'risk' sentiment and this seems to be the case. Stocks have yet to close but are currently trading higher and this stemmed the bit of 'risk off' flow across some FX pairs that was setting up during the London session:

Silver and Gold: these have enjoyed the weaker USD:
Silver 4 hr:

Gold 4hr: note the support of the daily 200 EMA:

FX pairs:

Kiwi: The TS 'long' signal was indeed confirmed off my 1 am candle BUT price is currently struggling to break free from the daily bear trend line that has contained price for some weeks. I would only take this signal if the daily candle manages to close outside of this trading channel. As I said above, technical levels seem to be dominating at the moment and this is just one more example. I see that price is pulling back below this level now as I write this note:

E/U: has bounced off the key 1.365 S/R level that I have had in place for months. Price is now back above another key S/R level; the 1.37:

E/J: never drifting too far from the major 61.8% fib level:

A/U: this has also bounced off the key 0.89 level and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. I had noted a TS signal but stressed to avoid this unless price closed below the 0.89. I had also mentioned to watch the S&P500 as improved sentiment there could help to lift the Aussie and this, along with the weaker USD, seems to have evolved.The TS signal would have given 34 pips for any scalpers but that's not me:  

A/U 4hr:

A/U daily Cloud: note how price bounced off the bottom of the Cloud; for now at least:

A/U daily: this pattern is still brewing:

A/J: this would have been a better trade to simply take off the triangle break as no new TS signal evolved:

Cable: anyone who underestimates the power of the monthly 200 EMA should be convinced by now after checking out this latest print: 

U/J: same here!

EUR/AUD: and here:

AUD/NZD: a bit wonky but not dead and buried just yet:

GBP/AUD: ditto here. The monthly pivot is containing price for now and keeping this pattern alive. For how long....I don't know: 

Nikkei: this will be a key index to watch during the Asian session. This closed just below the key 15,000 level on Thursday and any close back above 15,000 to see out the trading month would be significant and rather bullish.

Last day of month: Be aware that today is the last day of the trading month.

Yuan: I had mentioned to some traders last night that watching House of Cards might be more appealing than watching these markets. Interestingly, the episode I watched dealt with WTO deals and alleged Chinese currency manipulation and I had only just finished reading a related article about the Yuan and its recent movements. 

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