Thursday, February 13, 2014

Trading Week 10/02/14 (6)

Thurs 13th Feb (9.15 pm)
U/J: the TS signal eventually confirmed off my 9 pm candle:

Cable: this is up near a major resistance level now in  the form of the monthly 200 EMA. You can see how price was rejected here back in January; giving this 4 hr chart a 'double top' look to it. Price might stumble here for a bit even if there is to be bullish continuation.

Thurs 13th Feb (7.30 pm)
Indices: are battling it out. 

USDX: is trying to hold above the weekly 200 EMA:

EURX: bouncing up off bull trend line support:

Gold and Silver: both of these are struggling a bit now as they approach key resistance levels:

Gold: has bounced back from the 50% fib and the whole number $1,300 level:

Silver: struggling under the $20.50 S/R level:

U/J: this has not produced a clean TS signal just yet. My error after the 5 pm candle.
A/J: The A/J did but is not looking too good at the moment.


E/U: I have adjusted the upper bear trend line here to capture latest resistance:

S&P500 30 min chart: no clear trend here just yet:

Thurs 13th Feb (5.50 pm)
Cable: this might give a bit of a pull back so I'd be locking in profit here:

Thurs 13th Feb (5.20 pm)
New TS signals: two new signals off my 5 pm candle:

A/J: another big 'signal' candle so I'd be wary here:

Other open TS signals:
Cable: having a pause as it nears the major resistance of the monthly 200 EMA:

GBP/AUD: I warned that this new signal might be problematic given the signal candle was outside the Bollinger band. I'd be waiting for any push up over the monthly pivot first:

Risk appetite: may be down for the European and US session after some weak data and earnings. The S&P500 has not cleared the daily Cloud and that bearish 'H&S' still looks like it could be a possibility. More confirmation needed though, for me at least!

Thurs 13th Feb (1.20 pm)
AUD: weak Australian employment data has hit the AUD hard:

A/U: closed off:

A/J: diito

EUR/AUD: ditto

Cable: still going strong here though and now up 220 pips:

GBP/AUD: a new long signal noted here BUT I'd be wary here as the signal candle was so large and is outside the Bollinger band:

Thurs 13th Feb (10.40 am)
A/U: this signal looks to be closing off. Any strong AUD jobs data could bring this back to life though. I'd certainly be with a tight stop now though in case price action reverses.

A/J: ditto:

GBP/AUD: a new TS signal is trying to build here but I need the next candle close to confirm:

Thurs 13th Feb (6.45 am)
Indices: both indices have struggled over the last 24 hrs.

EURX: is back below the support of the monthly 200 EMA:

Gold: continues to shine and was the winner again today: 

S&P500: choppy today after yesterday's big move:

I'm still on the lookout for any possible bearish development here BUT it hasn't confirmed for me just yet. Others seem to think so though:

Open TS signals:
E/J: this has now closed off after giving 140 pips:

A/U: 70: Watch out with this pair as there is AUD employment data today:

A/J: 80 but struggling at a daily resistance trend line. AUD data might make or break this move:

G/U: Up 190 pips! The Cable was the big winner on the day after BoE news about upgraded GDP forecasts for 2014: 

I raised a few eyebrows when I fist suggested the 1.8 region might be a possible target for the Cable. When you look at the monthly chart now, though, it seems possible to me that any break and hold above the monthly 200 EMA resistance zone (brown line) would suggest that a march up to the 61.8% fib might seem quite reasonable. What do you all think?

Kiwi: has now closed as price struggled at a daily trend line:

EUR/AUD: 130 for now but be careful around AUD data today:

GBP/AUD: knocked out for -100 after GBP news:

Other Pairs:
E/U:  I suspect this fall was due in part to weak Euro zone production data and possibly continued US taper concern:

U/J: still struggling at the key S/R level of the monthly 200 EMA:

AUD/NZD: I'm still watching this possible bullish pattern form up: 

AUD pairs: watch trades here as there is AUD employment data out later today:

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