Monday, February 3, 2014

Trading Week 03/02/14

Sat 8th Feb (5.15 am)
Indices: mixed US employment data has these indices confused.
USDX: traded lower

EURX: traded higher. Note the new trend lines here:

S&P500: liked the fall in unemployment rate:

It ain't clear sailing though:

Open TS signals:
E/J: now up 80

A/J: up 100: 

New TS signal:
Cable: off my 5 am candle just now.

U/J: the weaker than expected NFP has no doubt left some confusion here. No momentum move yet although the wedge breakout has held. The monthly 200 EMA looms ahead though too so probably giving some grief!

Aussie: One might wonder, when looking at the 4 hr chart, why this pair is so choppy just here. Well, look at the daily Cloud chart. Price is stuck under the resistance of the bottom of the daily Cloud:

Fri 7th Feb (9 pm)
U/J: I did not end up getting a full TS signal here.

AUD/NZD: this one looks interesting too:

Fri 7th Feb (7 pm)
These TS signals have closed off now too:


Fri 7th Feb (5.50 pm)
It is NFP later tonight and trading is very risky around this event and, thus, not advised.

EURX: a creature of habit. Back near support:

U/J: We've had the bullish wedge break out but now a TS signal is building here. I will need my 9 pm candle close though:

Cable: one looks to be trying to build here too:

Gold: looking a bit more perky now:

Fri 7th Feb (11.05 am)
GBP/AUD: this TS signal looks to be closing off:

Silver: Olympic spirit must have Silver going here. It has managed to break up through the daily bear trend line. Three cheers for Silver!

Gold: not so perky but hanging near the $1,255 level:

Fri 7th Feb (10.40 am)
Cable:  a bullish 'inverted H&S' on the 4hr chart? Neck line at the major triangle trend line???

Fri 7th Feb (5.50 am)
Indices: Well, I got a verdict on my thoughts for a bullish Cup 'n' Handle on the USD index! No!

EURX: got a boost from ECB and their changed sentiment around inflation targets:

S&P500:  positive jobs data seemed to ease concern:

Open TS signals:
A/U: 70

A/J: 70:

Kiwi: 70:

GBP/AUD: has now yielded up to 450!

New TS signal: 
E/J: This new signal came off my 5 am candle. I noted yesterday how the daily chart H&S move had delivered most of the expected pips; 400 out of a possible 450. A new long signal has been received here but price is currently struggling at the weekly pivot. A possible target for any bullish continuation here would be the monthly pivot at the 140 area:

I have also noted over recent weeks how this H&S move might help achieve a test of broken resistance on the monthly Ichimoku Cloud chart. This test seems to have evolved and I'm looking out for signs of bullish continuation now. This latest TS signal might be just such an indication:

Cable: made a trend line break BUT no new signal.

U/J: ditto. Clearly it would be best to wait until after NFP for this one:

EUR/AUD: choppy:

AUD/NZD: stuck. The Prime Ministers of both Australia and NZ meet today. This might trigger something here?

Thurs 6th Feb (9.25 pm)
Cable: I wonder how this will move after rates data?

Thurs 6th Feb (3.50 pm)
S&P500:  a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross has evolved on the daily S&P500. This cross is deemed 'neutral' though as it evolved within the Cloud. Price is still below the Cloud:

Thurs 6th Feb (1.40 pm)
TS Signals: some of these got a boost from the AUD trade balance data:
A/U: has moved on for 70:

A/J: back to square:

GBP/AUD: hit the 400 pip level:

Kiwi: now up 30:

Cable: watching trend lines here:

U/J: ditto:

Thurs 6th Feb (8 am)
U/J: this pair seems to be waiting for NFP for some direction but I thought I'd look at how it is setting up prior to the big event.

U/J monthly:I'm still seeing the possible bullish Cup 'n' Handle pattern evolving here. You can see the importance of the 102 region on this chart:

U/J monthly Ichimoku: price broke up through the Cloud at the end of last year. Prior breaks are shaded on the chart below and these evolved back in 2001 and 2007. Thus, they are rather rare events. Those previous breaks did not hold for too long though and I'm watching to see if this latest break will be a repeat of history or be a bullish turning point for the U/J. I would have expected that price would at least test the top level of the Cloud before any possible bullish continuation. This S/R zone will be important to see if it can support price or, like back in 2001 and 2007, buckle under the pressure and see price action retreat.

U/J weekly: price action stalled at the 61.8% fib level. This may be a point of retreat for the U/J or just a 'Bull Flag' building:

U/J daily:  A bit 'Bull Flag' like here:

U/J 4 hr:  the bullish descending wedge here gives the daily chart its 'Bull Flag' look:

I think the U/J is waiting for NFP to decide which way to move. A positive print/result with NFP should boost the USD and, may then help to boost this pair. 

Just my 2 cents worth but I'll be watching for trend line breaks and signs of any new trend, long or short.

Don't forget the Holy Trinity alignment between the U/J, Nikkei and S&P500 that has been in play recently though.

Thurs 6th Feb (6.30 am)

E/U: I've re-drawn trend lines here to reflect latest S/R:

Thurs 6th Feb (5.50 am)
Indices: these are marking time like most other instruments. Clearly, NFP is the big ticket item this week that they all await. That, and GBP and EUR rates.

S&P500: holding up for now:

Gold: holding above the 'neck line' of $1,255:

Silver: went or a bit of a march to the daily bear trend line:

Open TS signals:
A/U: not doing much:

A/J: down

Kiwi: flat:

GBP/AUD: crept a little further to be up 320:

E/U: waiting for ECB:

E/J daily: The H&S move here may have completed now. The maximum suggested move was about 450 pips and this has now moved up to 400 pips.

Cable: hanging in there, under the major trend line, ahead of GBP rates. Might be a bullish descending wedge building here:

U/J: maybe a bullish descending wedge here too?

Wed 5th Feb (5.40 pm)
USDX: A bullish Cup 'n' Handle pattern might be setting up:

Otherwise, all fairly quiet ahead of a big data surge to end the week: GBP and EUR rates and USD NFP.

Wed 5th Feb (11.25 am)
AUD/NZD: this signal has closed off now:

S&P500: closed below the Cloud:

Wed 5th Feb (7 am)
S&P500: this has had a bit of a bounce today but that is to be expected. Price may simply be testing the broken Cloud support and/ or the broken trend line before further falls:
S&P500 30 min:
S&P500 daily Ichimoku:
S&P500 daily:
Open TS signals:
A/N:  NZD employment data out shortly might impact here:

GBP/AUD: up to 320 now:

A/U: up 40:

New TS signals: these came off my 5 am candles:

Kiwi: wary here though. This is back at the key 0.82 safety level and may be just testing broken support before further falls. Key employment data out shortly too. Be careful here. A positive data print could lift this pair:

E/U: sitting flat and clearly waiting for direction from ECB:

Tuesday 4th Feb (9 pm)

Open TS Signals:
AUD/NZD: still at the 240 max:

GBP/AUD: has kicked on to yield 300 pips:

New TS signal:
A/U: This has given a new signal BUT I'd like to see a HOLD above the 0.89 level with the next 4hr candle first:

Tuesday 4th Feb (2.50 pm)
S&P500: this index has now closed below the daily support trend line. I consider that the 1,685 level, at a minimum, will be tested here:

S&P500 Ichimoku Cloud:trading below the Cloud now:

Russell 2000: this index has now also closed below the daily support trend line:

Tuesday 4th Feb (2.35 pm)
TS signals:
E/U:  closed off after giving 100 pips:

AUD/NZD: this TS signal is getting a boost post RBA. Has yielded 200 pips now:

GBP/AUD: ditto here. Has yielded over 100 pips:

A/U: getting a lift from RBA:

Tuesday 4th Feb (6 am)
Indices: the USDX has slipped and the EURX has risen in odd trade as the market sentiment across most other instruments has leaned towards 'risk off':

S&P500: Poor US manufacturing data worried traders. This index is testing the daily support trend line at the moment with 2 hrs left until close. My TS signal is up:

S&P500 Ichimoku: price has now slipped below the Cloud and I'm on the lookout for any sell signal here:

S&P500 30 min chart: this would have delivered a great SPY trade off the 30 min charts!

Gold: is trading higher as a bit of fear creeps into the market. The bullish inverse H&S is still a possibility here:

Open TS signals:
AUD/NZD: kicked on to give up to 190 pips now:

E/U: has stalled though. I am surprised that this pair held up given the routing on stocks. Makes me suspect that the stock move is a bit of an over reaction:

GBP/AUD: has done nothing but that was to be expected after such a big candle move:

E/J: The H&S move has now delivered 380 pips!

A/U: RBA data here later:

A/J: a triangle break but no TS signals and I'd be waiting for RBA news anyway:

Cable: dropping still after weak GBP data and testing the previously broken monthly trend line:

Kiwi: the H&S might be continuing here!

U/J: down with stocks and the USD:

EUR/AUD: holding above the key monthly 200 EMA:

The fact that the E/U is holding up so well has me a bit baffled!

Monday 3rd Feb (9 pm)
GBP/AUD: this just gave a new signal BUT be wary after the large bear candle:

Monday 3rd Feb (8.30 pm)
Open TS signals:
E/U: still open:

AUD/NZD: Signal open and price is holding above the key 1.075: 

GBP/AUD: close to forming a new TS signal and making for a triangle break:

E/J: still sliding:

A/U: will be watching the trend lines here around interest rate news tomorrow: 

A/J: ditto here:

Cable: more weakness but no new TS signal: 

U/J: still choppy:

Asian markets traded lower today so this may end up being an occasion where markets are not bullish on the first day of the trading month!

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