Trading Week 24/02/14 (5)

Fri 28th Feb (9.30 pm)
USDX: falling heavily:

EURX: major bounce off the monthly 200 EMA support level:

I'd be watching Gold and Silver for follow through if this USD weakness keeps up.
Fri 28th Feb (9.25 pm)
E/U: has taken off!

EUR/AUD: close to forming a new TS signal:

E/J: no new signal soon BUT a triangle and 61.8% fib break looming:

Fri 28th Feb (9.15 pm)
Cable: The TS signal didn't form up fully on the 9 pm candle. It may do so after the 1 am candle though:

There is a bit of USD data tonight and, then, Chinese Manufacturing PMI tomorrow, Saturday.

Fri 28th Feb (8.20 pm)
Kiwi: this TS signal is ticking along:

Cable:  It looks like a new TS signal will form up on my 9 pm candle. A daily, and thus monthly, close above the monthly 200 EMA would be rather bullish....IMHO!

Warning: Traders need to keep an eye on the S&P500 during the US session. Any retreat here could trigger a bit of 'risk off'.


Fri 28th Feb (4.40 pm)
EUR/JPY: weakness is setting in here. Most likely due to the double whammy impact of EUR weakness, stemming from Ukraine concern, and JPY strength, following the earlier positive JPY data:

Fri 28th Feb (4.25 pm)
USD/CNY: there has been a lot of mumblings about price action here and not just on House of Cards! I thought I'd investigate the charts and they are posted below. Clearly, something is going on but I have no clear idea why. I read one suggestion that this may be related to tomorrows PMI release. We shall see!

USD/CNY monthly:

USD/CNY weekly:

USD/CNY daily:

USD/CNY 4 hr:

Fri 28th Feb (3.50 pm)
There seems a distinct shift towards 'risk off' and I can only assume this in response to the situation developing in the Ukraine.


Fri 28th Feb (2.45 pm)
S&P500:price closed above the resistance 'triple top' yesterday but it will be more important to see where price closes on Friday. This is especially so as Friday is the last day of the trading month. Thursday's daily candle was a bullish engulfing candle and the current monthly candle, with one day yet to go, is also printing an essentially bullish engulfing candle as well.

S&P500 daily:

S&P500 monthly:

A close on Friday above the 'triple top' region would be quite a bullish signal but global concern with events in the Ukraine may undermine 'risk appetite' in the coming European and US sessions.


Kiwi: this has now closed up and out of the trading channel but Ukraine concern may moderate this momentum:

Fri 28th Feb (10.25 am)
Kiwi: NZD 'red flag' data in 30 min might help to shape direction for the Kiwi.

Fri 28th Feb (9.25 am)
Kiwi: the Kiwi has failed to close up and out of the daily chart trading channel. I would leave this latest signal until such time as it can manage to close above this resistance:

Fri 28th Feb (6.45 am)

Indices: Technical trading may have been challenging of late but key technical levels have certainly dominated across the indices and FX pairs. This would make trading 'off bounces' quite lucrative for those who trade this way.

USDX: the weekly 200 EMA proved too much resistance for the index and price has bounced back down from here:

EURX:  has bounced up off the major trend line and monthly 200 EMA region:

S&P500: I had mentioned yesterday that traders need to watch US stocks as their path might dictate overall 'risk' sentiment and this seems to be the case. Stocks have yet to close but are currently trading higher and this stemmed the bit of 'risk off' flow across some FX pairs that was setting up during the London session:

Silver and Gold: these have enjoyed the weaker USD:

Silver 4 hr:

Gold 4hr: note the support of the daily 200 EMA:

FX pairs:

Kiwi: The TS 'long' signal was indeed confirmed off my 1 am candle BUT price is currently struggling to break free from the daily bear trend line that has contained price for some weeks. I would only take this signal if the daily candle manages to close outside of this trading channel. As I said above, technical levels seem to be dominating at the moment and this is just one more example. I see that price is pulling back below this level now as I write this note:

Others:

E/U: has bounced off the key 1.365 S/R level that I have had in place for months. Price is now back above another key S/R level; the 1.37:

E/J: never drifting too far from the major 61.8% fib level:

A/U: this has also bounced off the key 0.89 level and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. I had noted a TS signal but stressed to avoid this unless price closed below the 0.89. I had also mentioned to watch the S&P500 as improved sentiment there could help to lift the Aussie and this, along with the weaker USD, seems to have evolved.The TS signal would have given 34 pips for any scalpers but that's not me:  

A/U 4hr:

A/U daily Cloud: note how price bounced off the bottom of the Cloud; for now at least:

A/U daily: this pattern is still brewing:

A/J: this would have been a better trade to simply take off the triangle break as no new TS signal evolved:

Cable: anyone who underestimates the power of the monthly 200 EMA should be convinced by now after checking out this latest print: 

U/J: same here!

EUR/AUD: and here:

AUD/NZD: a bit wonky but not dead and buried just yet:

GBP/AUD: ditto here. The monthly pivot is containing price for now and keeping this pattern alive. For how long....I don't know: 

Nikkei: this will be a key index to watch during the Asian session. This closed just below the key 15,000 level on Thursday and any close back above 15,000 to see out the trading month would be significant and rather bullish.

Last day of month: Be aware that today is the last day of the trading month.

Yuan: I had mentioned to some traders last night that watching House of Cards might be more appealing than watching these markets. Interestingly, the episode I watched dealt with WTO deals and alleged Chinese currency manipulation and I had only just finished reading a related article about the Yuan and its recent movements. 

Trading Week 24/02/14: AUD/USD

Thur 27th Feb (9.05 pm)

Kiwi: a new TS signal has almost formed. It might take until the 1 am candle to form up completely though. Price is above the Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart BUT there is a daily chart resistance line just above price. It would be preferable to see a break and hold above this level. I do love technical analysis but I will have to wait to see this one in the morning!

Kiwi 4 hr:

Kiwi daily:

A/U: it seems that the 0.89 has held up rice, yet again. Will this level hold for the US session though? That might depend on what the S&P500 does so I'd be keeping one eye on that!

E/U: that 1.365 S/R level is holding price for now. Again, the S&P500 might carry some influence here during the US session:

Thur 27th Feb (7.40 pm)

QANTAS: I couldn't agree more! 

Thur 27th Feb (7.20 pm)

A/U: Yep...we've had a triangle break down AND a new TS signal BUT I'm still wary with possible support coming in from the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 0.89 level. Price has just bounced up off this area for now:

The thing that is bothering me is that there are no new TS signals anywhere else!

Thur 27th Feb (2.50 pm) AUD/USD

Aussie: The QANTAS bad news today seems to have spilled over negative sentiment to the AUD. This tags along with some weaker than expected data that was also released today. This has triggered a new TS signal on the A/U off my 1 pm candle BUT this signal is not valid just yet. The reason for this is that the A/U is trading within the bottom edge of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Interestingly, the bottom edge of the daily Cloud is right near the major S/R level of 0.89. Price is still about 34 pips above this level at the moment though but this 0.89 region might offer some support to price; something it has done a fair bit over recent weeks. Thus, I would not be shorting the A/U until after a close and hold below the 0.89:

A/U 4 hr: a triangle breakdown and a new TS signal forming BUT beware of the potential support that might be offered by the 0.89 level:

A/U daily Cloud: shows the bottom edge of the daily Cloud near the 0.89 level. The bottom of the Cloud can offer some support to price action: 

A/U daily: A breach of the 0.89 level would void the developing inverse H&S pattern on the daily chart: 

AUD Cross Pairs: further AUD weakness will most likely void these developing patterns too:

AUD/NZD: Sitting at major support. A break and hold below the 1.075 would void the bullish 'inverse H&S':

GBP/AUD: A break and hold above the monthly pivot region would void the bearish 'H&S' :

Trading Week 24/02/14 (4)

Thur 27th Feb (6.30 am)

Indices: This old song came back to mind when I checked out the indices just now. The USDX is back up at the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX is back at the monthly 200 EMA. Creatures of habbit!

USDX:

 EURX:

S&P500: currently down. I'm still waiting for a clear 'make or break' of this 'triple top':

Gold and Silver: neither of these have welcomed the latest batch of USD strength.  Adding fib levels to their most recent bull moves shows that a bit of a pull back is within reason though even if there is to be any bullish continuation:

Silver: A pull back to the key $20.50 looks possible:

Gold: a pull back to the $1,280 region is near a bit of support:

FX pairs: Interestingly, with this overnight shift to 'risk off', I don't have any new TS signals, not even on the A/U. They may yet build but they haven't as yet!

E/U: has fallen below the 1.37 and is now finding some support at the 1.365 S/R level. A short signal trying to build but hasn't as yet:

E/J: not straying too far from the 61.8% fib: 

A/U:  triangle holding price for now:

A/J: triangle break BUT no TS signal:

Cable: not straying too far from the monthly 200 EMA: 

U/J: ditto

Kiwi: choppy:

EUR/AUD:  choppy:

AUD/NZD daily: inverse H&S still brewing:

GBP/AUD: a close above the monthly pivot would void this technical pattern BUT we haven't had that yet: 

EUR/USD 30 min chart: the bearish action overnight put the E/U back into the 4hr Ichimoku Cloud. Periods of Cloud bound action are often best traded off 30 min charts during the US session. The E/U could have delivered up to 50 pips for those of you who can trade this time frame:

I'm out at hospital for much of today and will update on my return.