Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Trading Week 24/03/14: TS signals @ 340 pips. AUD targets?

Wed 26th March (4 pm)
The AUD has received a boost following a speech from RBA Gov Stevens. The TS signals continue to generate more pips which has prompted me to remind traders about possible targets for these, and other, AUD based trades.

EUR/AUD: now up 180 pips:

The target for this trade is best determined from the daily chart. The height of the triangle is about 700 pips and, thus, the expected move could be up to that order. A 700 pip move down from the breakout would put price near the 1.45 level. I'm looking just a little higher than this level though and the see that some possible resistance might come from the combined impact of the daily 200 EMA and the 61.8% fib pull back level of this latest bull move. That is where I would be looking to take profit.

E/A 4 hr:

E/A daily:

GBP/AUD: up 160 pips:

As with the EUR/AUD, possible profit targets are best determined from the daily chart. The height of the H&S pattern is about 1000 pips. This order of movement from the neck line, shown on the daily chart, would suggest a move back down to near the weekly 200 EMA. Traders need to keep an eye on the Cable though as any renewed strength there could undermine this full move.

G/A 4hr:
G/A daily:

Other technical trades:

A/U: this pair did not generate a clean TS signal but I've been watching this bullish 'inverse H&S' build since mid February. The height of the H&S pattern is about 380 pips. A 380 pip move would take this pair back up to the 0.94 region AND this just happens to coincide with bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. This would be the area I would expect to see price now head towards to test. Price is already above the Cloud on the 4hr and daily time frame.

A/U daily:
A/U weekly Ichimoku:

AUD/NZD: the bullish 'double bottom' is continuing to form up here and I would expect any bullish continuation to head up to test the previous S/R level of 1.075. The importance of this level is also best seen on the daily chart. Traders need to watch the Kiwi though as any bullish momentum there could stall price action here with the AUD/NZD:

A/N 4hr:
A/N daily:

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