Monday, March 10, 2014

Trading Week 10/03/14

Tue 11th March (7.30 am)
AUD/NZD: this gave a new signal off my 4 am candle. Price is below the Cloud on the 4hr and daily charts BUT there is AUD data out later so I'd be wary of that. A positive print could upset the signal:

That is the only new TS signal for now.

I'll update more later. A very sick son here taking my time here this morning.

Mon 10th March (8 pm)
The 'risk off' slide has stalled a bit  for the European open. This undermined some of the developing TS signals that had started to form up during the risk averse Asian session. Thus, no new TS signals.

Mon 10th March (5.40 pm)
Indices: haven't moved too far since last week's close:

Forex: No new TS signals have formed just yet. Risk appetite waned following the weekend release of the weak Chinese Trade Balance data and the AUD was hit hardest; all as expected. 

Some TS signals are trying to build on the AUD crosses. Asian stock markets were down too but I note that the Nikkei is still above the 15,000.

The recent S&P500 divergence is niggling at the back of my brain and urging caution. There is room on a number of indices and FX pairs for price to pull back from current levels, even within an overall bullish context, so I'm continuing to watch out for any signs of this.

E/U: holding up above the 61.8% fib for the time being BUT there is major resistance above AND we could just as easily see price pull back to test the bottom trend line here; even within an overall bull move:

E/U 4 hr:

E/U daily:

E/J:  holding up above the 143 for the time being. Price could just as easily pull back a bit though to test the 61.8% fib, even if it does ultimately continue on a bullish path:

A/U:  gapped lower on the Chinese data. This might undermine the 'inverse H&S' technical pattern here and the A/U may continue to weaken:

A/U daily Cloud: price has slipped back into the Cloud so I'd expect to see choppiness: 

Cable: continuing to flat line along the monthly 200 EMA. This major S/R level is proving to be a real 'line in the sand' for the Cable BUT there are no clear signs just yet as to which way price will move from this point: 

U/J: holding above the monthly 200 EMA for now: 

EUR/AUD: gave a new long signal off my 4 pm candle (see arrow) BUT price is in the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hr and the daily so I'm ignoring: 

AUD/NZD: a short signal trying to form up here. I need to see the 8 pm candle: 

GBP/AUD: a long signal trying to build here BUT price is in the daily Cloud so I'll note it, if it forms, but will ignore it: 

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