Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Trading Week 17/03/14: FOMC day!

Wed 19th March (6.50 pm): Some extra trend lines for guidance:

NB:I'd be wary ahead of GBP data out shortly and FOMC:

TS signals:
A/U: I'd have stop to entry here:

Kiwi: had said to wait until after FOMC:

Other FX: I've drawn in some trend lines for guidance:

E/U 4 hr:

E/J daily:

Cable 4 hr:

U/J daily:

EUR/AUD daily:

AUD/NZD daily:

GBP/AUD daily:

Gold daily:

Wed 19th March (10 am)
Indices: The USDX has remained weak whilst the EURX continues to hold its ground. FOMC might alter this landscape but I would have thought we'd be seeing some signs of this potential even by now:
USDX 4hr:

USDX daily: The October low is still close by:

USDX weekly:

EURX 4 hr:

EURX daily: the December high is highlighted.

Ichimoku alignment: the Ichimoku charts are still aligned for 'risk on' across the 4hr and daily time frames. Momentum has been generally slow across the markets though with Ukraine concern, with some instruments trading at pivotal levels or new highs and, also, ahead of FOMC.

S&P500: had a good session:

Gold: This has eased off a bit as Ukraine concern remains in check for the time being. The key $1,350 level was tested yesterday and I don't expect to see too much action here before FOMC. Any strengthening of the USD might hurt Gold and see it pull back below the support of the $1,350. The $1,300 could then be tested as this is the region of the monthly pivot and not too far from the daily and 4hr 200 EMAs.

Gold 4hr:

Gold daily:

TS Signals:
A/U: this signal is up 40 pips.

A/U daily: The bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern seems to be underway now. I note on Twitter this morning that others are now seeing this pattern on the Aussie!

Kiwi: this gave a new TS signal off my 4 am candle and made a breakout from the major monthly chart triangle pattern BUT price is outside of the Bollinger band though. This is a a significant break from a major resistance zone for the Kiwi. I'd be waiting now until after FOMC as any rebound in the USD could trigger a reversal here, especially with price being at such a contentious level. Any bullish continuation though would most likely see price head towards the Aug 2011 highs up near the 0.88 region.

Other FX:
E/U: this pair is loitering just under a major trend line from its monthly chart too. FOMC might dictate which way price heads from this point:
E/U 4 hr:

E/U monthly:

Cable:  price traded lower overnight but has held above a daily support trend line. No new TS signal here at all:
G/U 4 hr:

G/U daily:

U/J: choppy ahead of FOMC. Still triangle bound on the daily chart:
U/J 4 hr:

U/J daily:

EUR/AUD: much the same here. No new TS signal and triangle bound on the daily:
E/A 4hr:

E/A daily:

GBP/AUD: I tweeted about this yesterday as the bearish H&S was forming up. I didn't receive a TS signal but the break of the H&S neck line has already given a 180 pip move!

E/J: this is still holding just above the key 61.8% fib level BUT check out those Bollinger bands!
E/J 4 hr:

E/J monthly:

Geo-political issues are making trading hard enough but FOMC might alter the landscape too. It might be safer to get that out of the way before taking further trades.

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