Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Trading Week 03/03/14 (2)

Wed 5th March (11.350 am)
A/U: positive data is lifting the Aussie. watch the recent bear trend line. This will no doubt help the A/J signal too:

Wed 5th March (11.20 am)
A/J: this new signal came in off my 9 am candle. Like with the A/J though, the Ichimoku Cloud is a bother. Clearly though, Yen weakness is creeping in and this is what my signals are reflecting:

E/J: this is the one I'm most interested in. This pair is still trading within a triangle and has not triggered a new signal as yet. Further bullish momentum could trigger one and promote a new triangle break and thus is worth monitoring. The major 61.8% fib is right near this action too:

Wed 5th March (6.20 am)

No valid TS signals received. Price action remains choppy as the USD chops up and down with the Ukraine situation.

U/J: received a TS signal off my 5 am candle BUT it isn't valid AND I'm waiting here because:
  • I'd would prefer to see a close above the monthly 200 EMA here first before getting too excited though. 
  • Also, price is IN the 4hr Cloud.
  • Price just under the 4hr Cloud. 

S&P500: have had a relief rally as some of the Ukraine tension eased:

I will update in more detail later as I have to go to some early meetings.

Tue 4th March (9.20 pm)
No new TS signals.

Tue 4th March (6.45 pm)
Indices: these are shifting back to 'risk on':


S&P500:  stocks are trading higher in pre-market:

Gold: this move faded and the TS signal closed for -90:

Cable: making a move back up to the key monthly 200 EMA:

Aussie: holding above the 0.89:

Yen: some Yen weakness is helping the Yen based pairs:

Tue 4th March (9 am)
No new TS signals across any of the currency pairs following my 9 am candle update.

Tue 4th March (6.30 am)
The currency markets have traded 'risk off' over concern for the Ukraine situation. I do note, though, that the extent of 'risk off' thus far is fairly minimal. The huge amount of data coming up this week is probably keeping a lid on movement for now. 

Indices: The USDX has started to tick up a bit but the EURX isn't giving away too much ground.

S&P500: choppy after a gap down but I'm surprised there hasn't been more of a slide here during the US session. Positive US data overnight probably helped to contain the fallout:

Silver and Gold: both are trading higher: 
Silver: a hold above $21.50 for today will be bullish:

Gold: has closed above the previous high and triggered a new TS signal off my 1 am candle: 

TS Signals: 
EUR/AUD: this signal has closed off now for -50:

Other FX: the most noteworthy comments here are that there are no new 'risk off' TS signals just yet AND the A/U, a usually risk sensitive pair, is trading higher for the day! There is AUD interest rate data today so watch for reaction there:

E/U: did move back down after the gap fill: 

E/J: being supported by the triangle trend line and the new monthly pivot: 

A/U daily: inverse H&S still brewing here. Watch for AUD interest rate data later today. GDP tomorrow: 

A/J: conforming to my trading channel: 

Cable: down but no TS signal yet: 

U/J: ditto:

AUD/NZD:  inverse H&S still brewing here too: 

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