Thursday, March 6, 2014

Trading Week 03/03/14 (4)

Thur 6th March (11.20 am)
A/U: I'm clearly not the only person with this trend line drawn in!

Thur 6th March (9.20 am)
Indices: the USDX has struggled at the 61.8% fib and turned back down. The EURX is holding above key support and the monthly 200 EMA.

S&P500: chopped sideways above the new high with uncertainty over the continuing Ukraine situation:

Gold: has chopped sideways too above the support of the daily 200 EMA: 


Trend traders: there have been no valid TS signals as the markets continue to be rather choppy given the geo-political uncertainty and, also, as the markets await major data over the final two days of this week. GBP and ECB interest rate is due for release later today and, then, there is USD NFP tomorrow. I am hoping that momentum for trending markets might return by next week but any continued uncertainty with the Ukraine situation will most likely undermine this potential. Markets do not trend all the time and these last two weeks have been a clear example of this. Trend traders need to recognise this and, then, be patient and wait for the trends to return.

No new TS signals: avoiding choppy markets is essential for trend traders and is one of the strengths of my TS. Whilst the one valid signal on Gold this week failed, the lack of further signals has helped to preserve capital in choppy market conditions. 

E/U daily:  The 1.37 remains strong support here ahead of ECB rate data later tonight:

E/J: still coiling within the triangle and around the 61.8% fib but possibly looking a bit more bullish. I'll be watching to see if ECB rate data triggers any breakout here: 

A/U 4 hr: bullish under recent resistance. AUD Retail Sales data this morning might impact momentum here: 

A/U daily: the bullish 'inverse H&S' still looks valid: 

A/J: looking bullish as well. The arrow notes the TS signal that evolved but it was not supported by the Ichimoku Cloud:

Cable: now trading back above the major S/R level of the monthly 200 EMA. GBP rate data tonight might impact here and get the Cable moving again: 

Kiwi daily: looking bullish too: 

U/J: the monthly 200 EMA remains as major resistance here. Any break and hold above this level would be very bullish though. The arrow notes the TS signal that evolved this week but it was not supported by the Ichimoku Cloud: 

AUD/NZD daily: the bullish 'inverse H&S' still looks valid here too, albeit a bit wonky! 

GBP/AUD daily: the bearish H&S still looks valid here as well but it is also a bit wonky:

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