It's been quiet today in the lead up to NFP Friday. There is one pair hitting out at the moment though; the NZD/USD. I've had this trading within a symmetrical triangle for weeks now. Well, if it closes out of this pattern it will be the first weekly close to do so since the pattern printed from July 2011! I also have a TS long signal trying to form. We'll see what NFP does to it though:
I don't have any new TS trend signals but, this is great! The lack of trend throughout the entire week has meant that the ADX and DMI lines on most pairs are all trading down below the 20 'water mark' level. This makes spotting the next momentum move that much easier. This is 'rub your hands with excitement' stuff for sure! I've shown just one example below with the Swissie:
The markets fell and the USD got a boost overnight due to disappointment that the ECB failed to take any clear and immediate steps to stabilise the Eurozone. There were some wild spikes evident across the indices and most pairs:
I think I can get rid of the bear flag pattern though now! This is a perfect example of fundamental news upsetting technical patterns. Having said that though, the A/U looks like it could still be holding within its bull flag pattern:
There is NFP out later today so I think I'll be waiting until next week until after all this dust settles to assess things. I don't have any new TS signals which is hardly surprising. One can't complain though. TS gave signals to the value of 1,840 pips for just the last 2 weeks on July!
Thursday 2/8 (7 pm)
The bear flag on the USDX may still be holding. I did move it a smidge though. Also, a bull flag on the A/U?
The weekly pivots are proving popular with both indices:
It will really be up to how markets react to the ECB and NFP data before we can see the next major trend.
The Fed's failure to push further any ideas about QE3 has sent the USD racing back up. This has dismantled the bear flag on the USDX4hr chart but has not similarly rattled the Euro in the EURX:
This has resulted in some risk off moves but we still have the ECB meeting and news later today.
I have had a TS short signal on the G/U but I would not take this today after such a big downward spike and in the face of ECB news that is due out later.
Some better than expected Spanish manufacturing data has given 'risk on' a bit of a kick start. It has also nudged the USDX bear flag that I posted earlier into some early action:
Little has changed since this morning. The markets are clearly waiting for the FOMC, out later today, and ECB statements, out Thursday, as well as US employment data due on Friday. The new month reveals new pivots and the USDX monthly pivot has moved into a rather crowded zone near the 4hr 200 EMA, weekly pivot and the 61.8% fib retrace area from the last major swing high. It's in good company at least:
It's 'same old .... same old'. The markets are still just bouncing along sideways whilst waiting for the Fed statement on Wed pm and ECB's policy decision on Thursday. Even the Aussie pairs have stalled a bit.
I don't have any new TS signals but the good thing is though that all this sideways stuff has resulted in the ADX and DMI lines on most pairs getting back below the water level 20 mark. This will make it easier to see the next new trend when it starts!
Hmmm. I know that many are expecting the markets to head south and I understand the dire state of the global economies BUT..... the USDX chart, to me is looking like it's forming a bear flag! A bear flag pattern on the USDX, if indeed it evolves, would send the USD down and stocks and risk currencies up! This is no doubt....'curiouser and curiouser' stuff!
The indices are still bouncing sideways. I thought I'd take the time to have another look back over the A/U. I'm annoyed for not getting into this trade at the first signal late last week and, even more annoyed, for closing this trade on Monday. The signal from late last week is now up 210 pips!
The pair is now getting closer to the the upper trend line of the symmetrical triangle that I have been pointing out for weeks. I had mentioned that, to me at least, this pair looks like forming a bullish 'bull flag' pattern on the monthly chart. It is now only 160 pips away from the upper trend line of this triangle pattern. It could just as easily turn back down from here as well as break out though. Worth watching for sure!
Not much happening with currencies. No TS trend signals yet.
Currency and stock markets bounced along sideways overnight. It seems they are holding their breath before the US and European Central Bank decisions due out later in the week. The USDX and EURX both tracked sideways:
I don't have any new TS signals due to this choppiness. The A/U from last week is now up 180 pips:
The Loonie signal from last week is now up 130 pips:
Both the A/J and USD/SGD signals have faded though:
The daily Ichimoku chart for the USDX shows price still sitting just above the cloud and just under the weekly pivot. It's going to have to decide which route will be the toughest to plough through!
Risk off still favoured for the time being. I've closed my A/U long. I'm waiting for new signals now.
Not much has changed. The USDX is still just under the 4hr 200 EMA:
No new TS signals.
Monday 30/7 (12 noon)
There hasn't been a lot of movement but the little there has been has been a bit more 'risk off'. The USDX is currently trying to get back up through the 4hr 200 EMA:
I don't have any new TS signals yet.
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