FX Indices Review 09/07/12

I am still away so this, again, is a VERY BRIEF update:
PS: I've updated my Stocks:July page as well.


USDX Charts


USDX Monthly: Note the major resistance levels looming for the USDX.

USDX Weekly

 USDX Daily

USDX 4 hr

EURX Charts


EURX Monthly

 EURX Weekly

EURX Daily

 EURX 4 Hr

Thoughts:

The USDX is looking quite bullish BUT it is about to run into some major resistance in the 200 EMA on the monthly chart at the 84.2 level. This is also in the same general area as the 75% fib retrace level from the last swing high back in mid 2010 and, also, just above the psychological whole number level of 84. I think this might be the 'water mark' level for market sentiment. That is, if price can move beyond this 84 area then I think we could be in for an extended period of 'risk off' trading. Otherwise, if price can't move beyond this level we might get some more 'risk on' moves.

I will look for 'risk on' trades if:

• the USDX holds below the 84 area. This is the area of the monthly 200 EMA, a major previous S/R level and the 75 % fib retrace from the last major swing high AND
• if the EURX turns bullish and especially if it can break back above the holds above 100 area. This is the area of the monthly and weekly pivot, the 4hr 200 EMA and a previous strong S/R level.

I will look for 'risk off' trades if:

• the USDX breaks above the 84 area AND
• if the EURX remains bearish.