Trade Week Analysis 30/07/12

What a week..... 1290 pips and still going!

Last week was great for TS again. There were 820 pips maximum of moves earlier in the week from the main pairs that I watch: E/U 70, E/J 100, A/U 130, A/J 200, G/U 150, Swissie 100 and Loonie 70.  Then, towards the end of the week, there were a few new TS signals that are currently still running but up at the moment by 470 pips: A/U 160, A/J 90, USD/SGD 100 and the Loonie 120! This make a grand total of 1290 pips and with some of the trades still running. That is phenomenal and all of these signals were noted by me, in my blog updates, throughout the week. Personally, I didn’t do as well as my system but I had a win on the G/U, loss on the Swissie and I’m still open on an A/U long.

Market sentiment turned to ‘risk on’ late in the week after comments from the ECB President. There are still hopes of some further help from the US Fed by way of QE3 too that is helping to put weight on the USD. All of this makes technical trading quite difficult as there can be wild price swings after scheduled, and unscheduled, news releases. As usual though, I will trade either direction according to what the charts tell me.

E/U: Price didn’t quite reach the 1.2 floor I was expecting but was close enough. I don’t have a TS long signal on this yet. I would want to see a close and hold above the previous weekly H&S neckline level though before going long anyway.

I MIGHT look to SHORT the E/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the weekly pivot. 

I will look to LONG the E/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains and if price breaks above the 4 hr 200 EMA and previous weekly H&S neckline. 

E/J: I don’t have a TS long signal on this yet. I would want to see a close and hold above the 97 and 4hr 200 EMA level before going long anyway.

I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal, a return to ‘risk on’ and a close above the 97 level.

I won’t short the E/J at these low levels. 

A/U: There was a TS signal to LONG this pair last week that is still valid. This trade is currently up 160 pips. I am up about 60 pips on this trade after jumping in late!

I will look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns. 

A/J: There was a TS signal to LONG this pair last week that is still valid. This trade is currently up 90 pips.

I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns but there are lots of road blocks in the path. 

G/U: The large Draghi spike gave a distorted long signal on this pair that I’m quite wary of.  Price is butting up against a major S/R level near the daily 200 EMA.

I would look to LONG the G/U on the new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds above the daily 200 EMA. 1.58 might be a safer level to wait for though.

I would look to SHORT the G/U on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns.

USD/SGD: There was a TS signal to SHORT this pair last week that is still valid. This trade is currently up 90 pips. Price is currently sitting just above a trend line on a major symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart though. This bottom trend line may offer a good level to enter short if ‘risk on’ continues.

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on the existing TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains and if price breaks, closes and holds below the weekly triangle trend line.

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns. 

Swissie USD/CHF: This pair is trading down but without the formation of a clear cut TS signal.  There is a support trend line still in place on the daily chart that I will be keeping my eye on.

I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  

I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds below the 4 hr 200 EMA. 

Loonie:  USD/CAD: There was a TS signal to SHORT this pair last week that is still valid. This trade is currently up 120 pips. Price is approaching the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart which I will be keeping my eye on too.

I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  

I don’t think I will chase this existing short trade now. 

Silver: Silver is trading up a bit on the suspicion that there will be further easing.

Gold: Gold is also trading up a bit on the suspicion that there will be further easing.