I'm not able to get to my charts much but have just seen the purging on the Euro. The USDX is now back above the 82.65 and the EURX is struggling at the previous double bottom low level around 99:
The E/U copped a hiding during the last US session:
We are out a lot so I'm not able to keep up with charting at the moment.
Thursday 5/7 (11am Bali)
The indices have chopped around a bit and look like moving back towards 'risk off' sentiment:
I've been stopped out at entry of my A/U though and probably won't be doing another FX trade until I get back home.
The indices are quite choppy today with o clear new market trend. The USDX is currently trying to make a push up from the 81.7 level and the EURX is trying to break down from the monthly pivot and 100 psychological level:
Price could move either way from here. The broader stock markets are flat and not giving anything away at the moment. There is a holiday in the US for 4th July and a shortened trading week so we may not see much happen at all.
I am still long on the A/U but have moved my stop to entry given that I am not monitoring this trade too closely and, also, given the current level of indecision in the markets.
I'm not at all surprised about this choppy action given the Cloud action on both the daily EURX and USDX. Price action on both is weaving amongst the EMAs and butting up against the clouds. All in all, a good week not to trade!:
It seems that I haven't missed any decent trending action. The USDX and EURX continue to chop around at their strong S/R levels: the USDX at 81.7 and the EURX at 100:
I've had a few 'risk on' signals but the only one I took was a long on the A/U yesterday. Some good data has helped keep this going but it is only up about 60 pips or so.
Tuesday 3/7 (6am Bali)
Some poor US data sent the markets into 'risk off' overnight. The USDX has just broken back above key resistance and the EURX has slipped below its support. The moves stalled abit though on further stimulus hope though.
The A/U is in a holding pattern until the interest rate decision due out later today.
We are away at the moment and I'm only able to check charts briefly in the morning so I' won't be trading.
Monday 2/7 (8.30 am: Bali)
I'm away at the moment and won't get much chance to check the charts throughout the days. My indices charts aren't open yet but, from the currency pairs, it looks at this early stage of the Asian session, to be that 'risk on' is holding.
The A/U is opened above the daily 200 EMA. A close above this level at the first 4 hr candle close of this for the week would see me wanting to LONG this pair. There is some AUD data out later in the day so watch your calendar too if trading.
Further 'risk on' trades, as per my brief w/e analysis, would be sought too if 'risk on' sentiment does hold.
E/U: another thought....further bullish signals?
I've been looking at the E/U charts again. You will recall that I have been watching price hover around the weekly chart neck line. The positive E/U summit news sent price racing up from this level late last week. Price then now is currently trading above the neck line but below the bear trend line. This action now looks quite like a descending wedge pattern. The descending wedge is a bullish pattern so, I will be watching price now to see if it holds above the neck line and then looking for bullish behaviour. Check my w/e update to see how I'm looking at playing this pair if 'risk on' holds.
BTW: that bullish potential inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart that I have been posting for weeks is still actually valid too! The chart is messy with labels etc but you'll get the drift:
Now, I'm not making predictions, I never do that. I simply look for technical signs on the charts, and, at the moment, there seem to be a few potentially bullish signs on the E/U charts. Personally, I can't see justification for a Euro rally but I will trade what I 'SEE'. Mr Forex was clearly never a student at the philosopher's school of rational though.
E/U: another thought....further bullish signals?
I've been looking at the E/U charts again. You will recall that I have been watching price hover around the weekly chart neck line. The positive E/U summit news sent price racing up from this level late last week. Price then now is currently trading above the neck line but below the bear trend line. This action now looks quite like a descending wedge pattern. The descending wedge is a bullish pattern so, I will be watching price now to see if it holds above the neck line and then looking for bullish behaviour. Check my w/e update to see how I'm looking at playing this pair if 'risk on' holds.
BTW: that bullish potential inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart that I have been posting for weeks is still actually valid too! The chart is messy with labels etc but you'll get the drift:
Now, I'm not making predictions, I never do that. I simply look for technical signs on the charts, and, at the moment, there seem to be a few potentially bullish signs on the E/U charts. Personally, I can't see justification for a Euro rally but I will trade what I 'SEE'. Mr Forex was clearly never a student at the philosopher's school of rational though.
No comments:
Post a Comment