Friday 27/7 (1 pm) Throw in another 220 pips to the already 820 pips!
The USDX is still sitting on major support in the 82.65 region and 4hr 200 EMA:
There isn't a lot of scheduled news tonight so things could continue to drift on a bit sideways. There's also the feel good factor of the Olympics which may even help support markets!
There was a new TS signal overnight on the A/J. So, that makes just 4 in play: Long A/U, A/J and short USD/SGD and Loonie.
The USD/SGD is approaching a triangle trend line though:
The Loonie is running into the daily 200 EMA:
The A/J is just trying to get over the daily 200 EMA but the weekly 200 EMA is just ahead too!
The lack of other 'risk on' signals is concerning though making me cautious.
Friday 27/7 (6.30am) Throw in another 220 pips to the already 820 pips!
The USDX continued its fall after the comments from the ECB president until it reached the previous S/R level of 82.65. This level also coincided with the 4 hr 200 EMA:
These comments helped the TS signals from earlier yesterday along quite nicely. The A/U up 80, USD/SGD up 70 and the Loonie up 70 as well:
A/U:
USD/SGD
Loonie
This was somewhat lucky as the move could have gone either way for sure. The fact remains that not much has really changed. The markets seem to be pinning there hopes now on further help from the Fed with a QE3 announcement. As they say though...'the sh#% has gotta hit the fan one day'!
I'm out for much of the day watching my daughter in action at Court.
Thursday 26/7 (9 pm) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
Must have been Draghi:
Thursday 26/7 (5.45 pm) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
The USDX has just been drifting sideways. There is no real clear new trend direction just at the moment:
The 3 TS signals from earlier today have drifted into some profit. The A/U, USD/SGD and Loonie have all moved a bit but nothing stellar.
Thursday 26/7 (1.30 pm) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
The USDX fall has steadied during the Asian session today:
Stock markets were up across Asia today on the hopes of more stimulus.
Thursday 26/7 (6.30am) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
The risk off moves from earlier in the week have finished and yielded an amazing 820 pips! This is a measure of the maximum move on each pair. Don't even asked how I went...that is still a work in progress and, the week is not over yet!
The USDX continued to slide overnight and the EURX rose. Both have the weekly pivot as obstacles in their path. A look at the Ichimoku cloud chart shows resistance in their path on the 4hr charts too:
I do have just 3 new TS 'risk on' signals but I'm wary of these out on their own. I do expect any further 'risk on' moves might be choppy given the path of the indices.
The TS signal results for the signals this week so far:
E/U
E/J
A/U: note how the 4 hr 200 EMA would have been an ideal 'take profit' point!
A/J
G/U
Swissie
Loonie
Wednesday 25/7 (8 pm) 720 pips so far this week on TS. See 7am post!
There doesn't seem to be any rational reason for a trend reversal other than the 84 being a significant S/R level at which to react. It seems to have done the trick and has spooked price on this index down, for the time being at least.
Suits me just fine! A switch to 'risk on' should help my stocks that have been limping a bit and, also, it should give me some new TS signals.
Wednesday 25/7 (5.30pm) 720 pips so far this week on TS. See 7am post!
There seems to have been some positive Euro news which has sent the USDX tumbling, for now at least. This sentiment may only be short lived but I've closed my Swissie trade anyway. I think the markets will try and run with any good news and have regularly cautioned of this.
Wednesday 25/7 (4pm) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running! See 7am post!
The USDX is still clinging to the 84 area. I really think we need to see a daily candle close above the 84 level to feel confident it will keep moving upwards though and promote continued 'risk off' sentiment.
There are some red flag news items out later today and any slight positive read on these might tip the market into trading with a more positive sentiment. So, keep an eye on your trading calendar. I'm not sure how much longer this 'risk off' purge will last.
Wednesday 25/7 (12) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running! See 7am post!
The USDX daily candle close was actually just under 84; at 83.99. Hmmm. Things could turn from this point on for sure. My Swissie LONG was a bit premature or, probably more correctly, too late. I really should have entered when I got the initial TS signal some 80 pips ago! More trade management issues for me!
Wednesday 25/7 (10 am) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running! See 7am post!
The USDX is still clinging on to the 84 level. It might struggle here, especially with the monthly 200 EMA just above...see the green line just above price on the chart. This whole region is a significant S/R area:
There doesn't seem to be any good news in sight to halt this 'risk off' surge. The 88 USDX level is talked about by some as the key level for the Fed to unveil QE3 though.
The Aussie pairs are tumbling this morning. CPI is out in 90 min.
Wednesday 25/7 (7am) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running!
The USDX is trying to hold its head above the 84 level. It broke this, only just, on the previous candle:
This push has meant that 'risk on' has continued. The TS signals I had flagged since the weekend have continued on to amass a combined maximum of 720 pips! Charts below:
Whilst this is somewhat satisfying for me, as far as the system is concerned, I still struggle to make the most of these big moves:-(
BTW: I have taken a long on the Swissie. It has had a close above the weekly 200 EMA. I suspect that the E/U might hit the 1.2 level before soon and this will, hopefully, help the Swissie trade. I wouldn't be surprised though if the E/U 1.2 level forms some kind of floor for risk off trading, even if only temporarily.
Tuesday 24/7 (9.30 pm)
The USDX is still just chopping around under the 84 level. So, I wait!
Tuesday 24/7 (1.30 pm)
The pip haul for this week is already at 410 and it is only Tuesday! See the 7 am post for all the details.
There are still a lot of indecision candles on the USDX with price hovering below the key 84 level:
I've had a look at daily charts of the Dow and the S&P500 too. Price, on both of these indices, is stuck in a trading channel and whilst the -DMI is trending up, the ADX is well below the 20 level . This tells me that there isn't much momentum behind this down move....well...not just yet at least. That may well change if the USDX gets up over 84 though!
G/U: I'm still watching this pair closely. The 1 hr chart looks like it could simply be forming a bear flag pattern:
I'm watching for any further falls and then the bottom triangle trend line on the monthly chart:
This trend line will provide the next trade entry level if price continues to fall in risk off trading.
Swissie: I'm also still watching for a break above the weekly 200 EMA on the Swissie...visible as the green line above current price on the 4 hr chart:
Loonie: the Loonie is holding up above the 4hr 200 EMA and this might prove to be a launch pad if risk off continues:
Tuesday 24/7 (10 am)
The USDX is still sitting on major support in the 82.65 region and 4hr 200 EMA:
There isn't a lot of scheduled news tonight so things could continue to drift on a bit sideways. There's also the feel good factor of the Olympics which may even help support markets!
There was a new TS signal overnight on the A/J. So, that makes just 4 in play: Long A/U, A/J and short USD/SGD and Loonie.
The USD/SGD is approaching a triangle trend line though:
The Loonie is running into the daily 200 EMA:
The A/J is just trying to get over the daily 200 EMA but the weekly 200 EMA is just ahead too!
The lack of other 'risk on' signals is concerning though making me cautious.
Friday 27/7 (6.30am) Throw in another 220 pips to the already 820 pips!
The USDX continued its fall after the comments from the ECB president until it reached the previous S/R level of 82.65. This level also coincided with the 4 hr 200 EMA:
A/U:
This was somewhat lucky as the move could have gone either way for sure. The fact remains that not much has really changed. The markets seem to be pinning there hopes now on further help from the Fed with a QE3 announcement. As they say though...'the sh#% has gotta hit the fan one day'!
I'm out for much of the day watching my daughter in action at Court.
Thursday 26/7 (9 pm) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
Must have been Draghi:
Thursday 26/7 (5.45 pm) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
The USDX has just been drifting sideways. There is no real clear new trend direction just at the moment:
Thursday 26/7 (1.30 pm) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
The USDX fall has steadied during the Asian session today:
Stock markets were up across Asia today on the hopes of more stimulus.
Thursday 26/7 (6.30am) 820 pips maximum from TS signals flagged earlier this week!
The risk off moves from earlier in the week have finished and yielded an amazing 820 pips! This is a measure of the maximum move on each pair. Don't even asked how I went...that is still a work in progress and, the week is not over yet!
The USDX continued to slide overnight and the EURX rose. Both have the weekly pivot as obstacles in their path. A look at the Ichimoku cloud chart shows resistance in their path on the 4hr charts too:
I do have just 3 new TS 'risk on' signals but I'm wary of these out on their own. I do expect any further 'risk on' moves might be choppy given the path of the indices.
The TS signal results for the signals this week so far:
E/U
Wednesday 25/7 (8 pm) 720 pips so far this week on TS. See 7am post!
There doesn't seem to be any rational reason for a trend reversal other than the 84 being a significant S/R level at which to react. It seems to have done the trick and has spooked price on this index down, for the time being at least.
Suits me just fine! A switch to 'risk on' should help my stocks that have been limping a bit and, also, it should give me some new TS signals.
Wednesday 25/7 (5.30pm) 720 pips so far this week on TS. See 7am post!
There seems to have been some positive Euro news which has sent the USDX tumbling, for now at least. This sentiment may only be short lived but I've closed my Swissie trade anyway. I think the markets will try and run with any good news and have regularly cautioned of this.
Wednesday 25/7 (4pm) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running! See 7am post!
The USDX is still clinging to the 84 area. I really think we need to see a daily candle close above the 84 level to feel confident it will keep moving upwards though and promote continued 'risk off' sentiment.
There are some red flag news items out later today and any slight positive read on these might tip the market into trading with a more positive sentiment. So, keep an eye on your trading calendar. I'm not sure how much longer this 'risk off' purge will last.
Wednesday 25/7 (12) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running! See 7am post!
The USDX daily candle close was actually just under 84; at 83.99. Hmmm. Things could turn from this point on for sure. My Swissie LONG was a bit premature or, probably more correctly, too late. I really should have entered when I got the initial TS signal some 80 pips ago! More trade management issues for me!
Wednesday 25/7 (10 am) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running! See 7am post!
The USDX is still clinging on to the 84 level. It might struggle here, especially with the monthly 200 EMA just above...see the green line just above price on the chart. This whole region is a significant S/R area:
There doesn't seem to be any good news in sight to halt this 'risk off' surge. The 88 USDX level is talked about by some as the key level for the Fed to unveil QE3 though.
The Aussie pairs are tumbling this morning. CPI is out in 90 min.
Wednesday 25/7 (7am) 720 pips so far this week on TS and......still running!
The USDX is trying to hold its head above the 84 level. It broke this, only just, on the previous candle:
This push has meant that 'risk on' has continued. The TS signals I had flagged since the weekend have continued on to amass a combined maximum of 720 pips! Charts below:
Whilst this is somewhat satisfying for me, as far as the system is concerned, I still struggle to make the most of these big moves:-(
BTW: I have taken a long on the Swissie. It has had a close above the weekly 200 EMA. I suspect that the E/U might hit the 1.2 level before soon and this will, hopefully, help the Swissie trade. I wouldn't be surprised though if the E/U 1.2 level forms some kind of floor for risk off trading, even if only temporarily.
Tuesday 24/7 (9.30 pm)
The USDX is still just chopping around under the 84 level. So, I wait!
Tuesday 24/7 (1.30 pm)
The pip haul for this week is already at 410 and it is only Tuesday! See the 7 am post for all the details.
There are still a lot of indecision candles on the USDX with price hovering below the key 84 level:
I've had a look at daily charts of the Dow and the S&P500 too. Price, on both of these indices, is stuck in a trading channel and whilst the -DMI is trending up, the ADX is well below the 20 level . This tells me that there isn't much momentum behind this down move....well...not just yet at least. That may well change if the USDX gets up over 84 though!
G/U: I'm still watching this pair closely. The 1 hr chart looks like it could simply be forming a bear flag pattern:
I'm watching for any further falls and then the bottom triangle trend line on the monthly chart:
This trend line will provide the next trade entry level if price continues to fall in risk off trading.
Swissie: I'm also still watching for a break above the weekly 200 EMA on the Swissie...visible as the green line above current price on the 4 hr chart:
Loonie: the Loonie is holding up above the 4hr 200 EMA and this might prove to be a launch pad if risk off continues:
Tuesday 24/7 (10 am)
Bad news continues but, none the less, we have a reversal pin bar candle that has formed on the USDX daily chart. Thus, caution needed!
I want a clear break of this 84 level before taking more risk off trades.
The USDX did spike up through the key 84 level but was not able to close or hold above this level. A shooting star reversal candle pointed to the possible reversal:
I see we are in a bit of no mans land at the moment. The USDX may still make another attempt at the 84 or it may continue to fall. I won't take any further trades until I have a clearer picture of what it might go on to do.
The results of the signals so far this week are very impressive though:
A/U: 70, A/J 140, G/U 150, Loonie: 50 Maximum possible Total = 410 pips. (charts below)
I managed to scrape just 55 pips out of this impressive haul. This is much better for me than last week though!
The E/U, E/J and Swissie trades have essentially just drifted sideways for no net gain.
Monday 23/7 (9.50 pm)
The big moves have stalled a bit on the pairs but the USDX looks to be trying to attempt the 84 level again:
European stocks are down and the US markets are way down in the pre-markets. With no good news in sight the 84 looks under threat.
I took the 55 pips on the G/U and closed it. I'm not confident that the USDX will break the 84 level. If it does, then I'll look to get in on the Swissie or Loonie.
Some reversal candles just formed on the 4 hr charts too...E/U and E/J.
Some reversal candles just formed on the 4 hr charts too...E/U and E/J.
I'm currently up about 50 pips on a short G/U. The E/U was too low for me, I'm wary shorting Yen pairs and Aussie pairs so, though didn't leave much; just the G/U, Loonie or Swissie. I'm waiting for the USDX to clear the 84 level though before taking any long on the Swissie or Loonie though.
The A/J signal is now up 130 pips:
The A/U signal is only up around 40 pips:
The Loonie signal is up around 25 pips:
The USDX is only now starting to pick up some momentum to attempt the 84 level.
Asian stock markets sold off today amid ongoing concern about the Euro zone debt crisis. European markets look set to open lower too. This is all pointing to further 'risk off' trading but caution will be needed as the markets tend to jump all over any slight whiff of good news. Also, he USDX 84 level may end up proving to be just too hard a nut to crack!
I avoided shorting the Aussie pairs as they have not played 'risk off' very well of late. Pity for me though as the A/J signal is already up over 70 pips just today and over 100 pips from its initial signal!
The Swissie is currently trying to rise above the weekly 200 EMA:
The Swissie is currently trying to rise above the weekly 200 EMA:
I have received more 'risk off' TS signals with this last 4 hr candle close at midday. I already had signals from late last week on the: E/J short, A/J short, G/U short and Swissie long. I now also have new signals on the E/U short, A/U short and the Loonie long. Check my w/e posts for notes on each of these pairs.
It has been a rather frustrating morning here. I have not been able to log into my demo platform where I do all my charting and analysis. A 40 min wait on the phone to the broker has not achieved anything either! I can see from my LIVE platform though that the markets have gapped lower in risk off trade by about 40 pips. I will be waiting until my indices platforms come on line later and, then, hopefully my charting platform will be back up running too.
No comments:
Post a Comment