Trade Week Analysis for 23/07/12

There were only a few TS signals this week but they yielded a bucket full of pips; 450 pips in fact: A/U 210, A/J 90 and G/U 150 pips. There were also 90 pips on offer from the USD/SGD that I noticed a bit late though. The signal on the NZD/USD on Friday faded quickly. Charts are shown below. TS results: a possible 5 TS signals, a maximum gain of 540 pips, risk of 500 pips and a loss on NZD/USD of 40 pips. Thus, return on risk = 500/500 x 100% = 100% ROR for the week. Mary's results: 0%: I took one trade, the A/U long and got stopped out at b/e :-(

Last Friday saw the broader markets turn to trade risk off though. The USD started to make another assault on the huge resistance 84 level. I expect markets to trade ‘risk off’ is this level is broken and to trade ‘risk on’ if price fails to breach this significant level.

E/U:  A large bearish move late on Friday has ALMOST, but not quite, forced a new TS short signal. I’ll wait for a full TS signal to form though.

• I will take any new TS signal that is in alignment with overall market sentiment.

E/J: I have a new TS signal to short the E/J but it formed over too long a period so I will not be taking this.

A/U:  I don’t have any new TS signal here yet. The A/U has reversed and looks to be trying to form a new TS short signal. I would prefer to trade this pair long rather than short but will try to keep an open mind!

• I will take any new TS signal that is in alignment with overall market sentiment.

A/J:  I have a new TS signal to short the A/J. There are road blocks in the path though.

• I will trade long if risk on prevails, a new TS long signal forms and if price can close & hold above the daily 200 EMA.

• I will trade short if risk off prevails, the new TS short signal holds and if price closes below the daily 200 EMA.

G/U: I have a new signal to short the G/U. 

• I will trade long if risk on prevails and a new TS signal forms.
• I will trade short if risk off prevails, the new TS short signal holds and if price closes below the 1.56 area and monthly pivot.

USD/SGD: I don’t have any new TS signal here yet.

• I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns. 
• I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains and price closes and holds above the 1.26 level.  

Swissie USD/CHF: I have a new signal to long the Swissie but will wait for a close above the weekly 200 EMA.

• I will LONG the Swissie if price can break and hold above the 0.993 level of the weekly 200 EMA.
• I will SHORT the Swissie if risk on returns.

Loonie:  USD/CAD: A new TS long signal is trying to form but there are road blocks in the path.

• I will look to LONG the Loonie if risk off holds, the new TS signal forms and if price can break, close and hold above the weekly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA.
• I will look to SHORT the Loonie if ‘risk on’ returns, a new TS signal forms and if price can break, close and hold below the daily 200 EMA.