The USDX is back to nudging upwards from the 83 level. The potentially bullish wedge pattern is still in play. The EURX is starting to look more bearish.
No new TS signals for now. Even the A/U has paused. I'd like it to pull back to the daily 200 EMA please!
Friday 20/7 (7am)
Choppy trade overnight meant that the signals on the E/U and Swissie didn't end up evolving. The NZD/USD is limping sideways. The USDX is still hovering near the 83 level and the EURX has failed to get over the weekly pivot:
The EURX has more than the weekly pivot in its way. It has a rather large cloud on the 4 hr chart blocking its progress:
The only signals from this week though continue to power along with out me:
A/U now up 210 pips:
A/J still up around 90 pips:
G/U now up around 150 pips:
USD/SGD: spotted late but is now up over 90 pips:
I've got very new risk on TS signals trying to form up on the E/U and Swissie. The next candle is needed to confirm this though and that isn't until midnight. I've had a TS long also on the NZD/USD. The A/U trade is now up over 200 pips, the A/J 90+ pips and the G/U 100+ pips :-(
Well, the USDX is back around the 83 level and I don't have any new TS signals.
We are starting to see some 'risk on' sentiment filtering through the stock and currency markets. US markets were up last night and Asian markets are up today. This could go on for a few sessions. The USDX is currently trying to break the 83 and the EURX is tryiang, again, to get up over the weekly pivot:
Some 'risk on' signals are starting to form up too. My preference would be the Swissie or the E/U at this stage given I've missed the A/U and USD/SGD. The A/U is now up 160 pips...grrrr!
I've just had a 4 hr candle close but there are no new TS signals.
The markets continue to chop, almost moment by moment, from risk on to risk off. The USDX is back to where it was most of yesterday; at the 83 level.
I don't have any new TS signals with this choppiness. The continuing frustration for me though is that my A/U trade, that I was stopped out of at b/e by the spike, is now up 150 pips! It is still powering along too. The A/U is really doing its own 'risk on' thing now, even more so than the A/J.
The only other two signals that I had were the A/J and G/U. They are still grinding their way higher too. The A/J is up 70 and the G/U is still up around 100.
I've had some significant medical appointments this week and, as a result, I took my eye of the complete ball and missed the short TS signal on the USD/SGD. This trade is up 50 pips from the initial signals but I had said I wanted to wait for it to clear the 1.26 level though anyway. That seems to have happened though too:
No real change just yet. See earlier posts for charts and thoughts.
The only 3 signals that I have had to start this week have been the A/U, A/J and G/U. These 3 pairs have netted around 260 pips though:
I chose the A/U once it had closed above the daily 200 EMA, as per my w/e analysis. The frustration for me is that I moved my stop to b/e and was then taken out by the spike overnight. So, TS has scored but I'm left with no loss but no gains either!
The other pairs just never seem to develop full trend signals. I had suggested that any further risk on moves might be choppy given the nature of the cloud pattern on the Ichimoku charts for both the USDX and EURX. The USDX 4hr chart shows how price is now embedded in the cloud and the EURX show how, if it continues to rally, it will soon hit the cloud:
The choppiness we are currently seeing is a reflection of this cloud resistance. The USDX is trying to keep its head above the 83 level. The EURX is struggling to rally up and over the weekly pivot. I really want to wait until there is some clearer direction on the pairs for either risk on or risk off trading.
I've just been looking at the USDX again. It looks like it could be forming a bullish pattern in a 'broadening descending wedge':
I'll keep open minded about taking any risk on signals if there is broad support across the pairs. I'll be watching closely for a return to risk off though too!
I'm out for most of today at the hospital...again.
Trade overnight was choppy with spikes appearing in most pairs:
My A/U trade was stopped out by the spike and is now still powering along and is up over 80 pips! Very frustrating.
I have some risk on signals still close to forming on the E/U, E/J, Swissie and USD/SGD. Signals are still going on the A/U and A/J but the Cable signal faded.
The 'risk on' rally seems to have paused, most probably waiting for Ben Bernanke's testimony to gauge direction.
Trading from a technical perspective is hard at times like these. The fireworks will probably happen whilst I sleep!
The indices are still doing battle with the EURX trying to put in a rally. The USDX is still holding up though too:
This attempt to reverse to 'risk on', if it lasts, may not be smooth if the Ichimoku is to be acknowledged. Clouds loom in the path for both indices on the 4 hr time frame.
My long TS A/U trade got a boost today and I'm up about 60 pips. I have moved my stop to entry and will just let it go. The A/U is kind of off doing its own 'risk on' thing, as it has been prone to do of late. To me, its like watching a teenager once they've got their licence....they're off and out the door whenever possible. The A/J is starting to follow too but the other 'risk on' trades and signals are being a lot slower to kick in. This makes me cautious! The signal on the G/U is still valid and the A/J has woken again too.
I don't have new TS signals on the others just yet but they are very close to forming. The Swissie looks the closest.
I've just had a 4 hr candle close but there are no new TS signals just yet.
Tuesday 17/7 (7am)
Trading chopped back to 'risk on' with a falling USD after I last posted:
Stock markets closed down over continuing Euro zone worries but this worry didn't seem to permeate through to the currency markets. The signals I had from late last week to long the A/U and G/U are still holding but the A/J faded. The G/U is actually up 70 pips and the A/U is up just 40.
I'm actually starting to get more 'risk on' signals starting forming up. I took a long on the A/U but will wait for other signals to form before taking other trades. The G/U now has closed above the 1.6 level which is encouraging.
Current moves on the indices seem to be pointing to more 'risk off' trading:
I'm still wary until the USDX either makes or breaks the 84 level. I don't have any new TS signals just yet but they may kick in overnight if the USDX trend continues.
The indices are not revealing anything just yet by way of new trend:
There has been more of a 'risk off' move in the currency pairs though throughout the Asian session.
I don't see any TS trend trades just yet.
The markets have just opened and there were only small gaps on the Aussie pairs and the USD/SGD. My indices charts don't open for a while. My main charts update again at midday for the 4 hr candle but I'm out for most of the day with check ups at the hospital. I'd prefer to wait until later, and the London open, before trading anyway though to see which way the USD keeps moving. It is a holiday in Japan so the Asian session might be quieter than normal too.
The A/U has opened above the daily 200 EMA. A close and hold above this level would see me keen to long this as I have a new TS signal.....as per my w/e analysis.
No comments:
Post a Comment