Sydney Swans: Official AFL Premiers for 2012
Sunday 30/09/12
Last week: There were some lows and highs for sure: dud results for FX, good results for Options but, SPECTACULAR results for our footy team, the Sydney Swans, in the 2012 AFL Grand Final. This would probably be the most appropriate song for my husband, and many other Swans fans, today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOsg1NLrp8c! He is currently sitting through a 2nd replay of the game!
Last week could have provided great possibilities though for those people who were able to day trade FX through the US session. There were some great trades off the shorter time frame 30 min charts. The G/U and A/U gave great opportunities on Friday:
There were also some great opportunities to day trade options on the SPY ETF on the S&P500. I have outlined one possible trade in a bit more detail on my 'TS + SPY' page here on this blog:
Trend trading from 4hr charts though was tough this week. I had ‘risk off’ and then ‘risk on’ signals that both failed. Technical trading on longer time frames is difficult at the moment with so many fundamental, big item news releases about. ‘Risk off’ moves seem to get stymied by the ‘Bernanke Put’ and ‘risk on’ moves seem to get spooked by global growth concerns, especially Euro zone worries. I am noting this 4hr FX choppiness as it coincides with divergence on the 4hr and daily Ichimoku Cloud charts for both indices, the USDX and EURX. This may be a pattern to be wary of in the future.
This week: From a technical perspective, the charts look quite similar this week to last week. I’ll be extra cautious this week though for 4 main reasons:
BTW: I won’t be taking any ‘risk on’ signals unless the USDX breaks below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4hr chart. This would bring it into line with the daily chart and also ensure a break below the current weekly pivot. This is the proviso for all my comments below. You can see how the 4 hr cloud supported price all last week. Really, in hindsight I was rather stupid to take any ‘risk on’ signals last week given the 4hr cloud hadn't been breached.
BTW: I have also updated my blog page here on 'TS + Ichimoku'. My findings continue to be very interesting, well, they are to me at least!
E/U: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit but I still see this pair as trading within a bullish descending wedge pattern. The daily 200 EMA is acting as strong support though.
E/J: I’m leaving this pair this week as it looks too messy. Last Friday’s ‘spinning top’ candle means I’m not the only confused person!
A/U: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit here too but it also still looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge pattern. This pair will benefit from any Chinese stimulus news.
A/J: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit here too and it also still looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge pattern. This pair will benefit from any Chinese stimulus news and, also, from BOJ Yen intervention so is one to watch for sure.
G/U: Last week’s indecision Doji candle on the weekly chart certainly spooked the G/U this week. It bounced all around and I've re-drawn trend lines here to reflect new S/R levels. There is a daily bull support trend line, of sorts, still in play but also a new trading channel as well. The daily chart also looks like the making of a bull flag pattern! There are some bearish indicators here though as well. The weekly chart shows we've had a double top with price from last April and there is a weekly bearish engulfing candle pattern. So, there are certainly mixed signals making this pair quite difficult to read.
USD/SGD: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit here too but it also still looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge pattern. This pair will be impacted by any Chinese stimulus news and BOJ Yen intervention. Last week’s ‘weekly candle’ looks like it could be a bit of a shooting star reversal candle though...so...maybe some downside coming???
Swissie USD/CHF: Price is still trading within what looks like, to me at least, a bearish broadening ascending wedge pattern or even a bear flag pattern.
Loonie: USD/CAD: Price is still trading in a bearish ascending wedge pattern.
Silver: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is still looking quite bullish. Price is up 500 pips since the TS signal although it didn't move much this week! This metal looks like it has paused, bull flag style, while it waits to gather more steam for the next leg upwards. The weekly candle was an indecision Doji.
Gold: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking quite bullish. Price is up 1200 pips since the TS signal although it didn't move much this week! This metal also looks to be forming a bull flag! The weekly candle here was also an indecision Doji. A falling USD will boost Gold.
Last week could have provided great possibilities though for those people who were able to day trade FX through the US session. There were some great trades off the shorter time frame 30 min charts. The G/U and A/U gave great opportunities on Friday:
There were also some great opportunities to day trade options on the SPY ETF on the S&P500. I have outlined one possible trade in a bit more detail on my 'TS + SPY' page here on this blog:
Trend trading from 4hr charts though was tough this week. I had ‘risk off’ and then ‘risk on’ signals that both failed. Technical trading on longer time frames is difficult at the moment with so many fundamental, big item news releases about. ‘Risk off’ moves seem to get stymied by the ‘Bernanke Put’ and ‘risk on’ moves seem to get spooked by global growth concerns, especially Euro zone worries. I am noting this 4hr FX choppiness as it coincides with divergence on the 4hr and daily Ichimoku Cloud charts for both indices, the USDX and EURX. This may be a pattern to be wary of in the future.
This week: From a technical perspective, the charts look quite similar this week to last week. I’ll be extra cautious this week though for 4 main reasons:
- It is NFP Friday this week. A lot of weight is being put on these figures as we head closer to the US Presidential election.
- It is 'Golden Week' (Bank holiday all week in China). Many are reporting that this period may see the Chinese government announce stimulus measure.
- The USD/JPY is getting rather low. This pair is currently at 77.89 but getting down to near levels where the BOJ has previously intervened.
- There is divergence on price position for both indices, USDX and EURX, on the daily and 4 hr chart time frame (see USDX charts below but also yesterday's w/e post on FX Indices Review for more details)
BTW: I won’t be taking any ‘risk on’ signals unless the USDX breaks below the Ichimoku cloud on the 4hr chart. This would bring it into line with the daily chart and also ensure a break below the current weekly pivot. This is the proviso for all my comments below. You can see how the 4 hr cloud supported price all last week. Really, in hindsight I was rather stupid to take any ‘risk on’ signals last week given the 4hr cloud hadn't been breached.
BTW: I have also updated my blog page here on 'TS + Ichimoku'. My findings continue to be very interesting, well, they are to me at least!
E/U: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit but I still see this pair as trading within a bullish descending wedge pattern. The daily 200 EMA is acting as strong support though.
- I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and price breaks down below the daily 200 EMA within the flag pattern.
- I will look to LONG the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and price breaks up and out from the flag pattern.
E/J: I’m leaving this pair this week as it looks too messy. Last Friday’s ‘spinning top’ candle means I’m not the only confused person!
A/U: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit here too but it also still looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge pattern. This pair will benefit from any Chinese stimulus news.
- I might SHORT the A/U if ‘risk off’ returns and price breaks down from the trading channel and closes and holds below the daily 200 EMA.
- I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks up and out from the trading channel and above the monthly and weekly pivots.
A/J: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit here too and it also still looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge pattern. This pair will benefit from any Chinese stimulus news and, also, from BOJ Yen intervention so is one to watch for sure.
- I won’t SHORT the A/J this week. I’d look elsewhere for ‘risk off’ trades.
- I will look to LONG the A/J on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns, if price breaks up and out from the trading channel and if price closes above the weekly & monthly pivot and the daily and weekly 200 EMA. So, all in all, a close and hold above 82 looks best to me.
G/U: Last week’s indecision Doji candle on the weekly chart certainly spooked the G/U this week. It bounced all around and I've re-drawn trend lines here to reflect new S/R levels. There is a daily bull support trend line, of sorts, still in play but also a new trading channel as well. The daily chart also looks like the making of a bull flag pattern! There are some bearish indicators here though as well. The weekly chart shows we've had a double top with price from last April and there is a weekly bearish engulfing candle pattern. So, there are certainly mixed signals making this pair quite difficult to read.
- I would look to LONG the G/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price closes and holds above 1.63.
- I would look to SHORT the G/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bull trend line and 4hr 200 EMA at the 1.6 area.
USD/SGD: I've adjusted the trend lines a bit here too but it also still looks to be forming a bullish descending wedge pattern. This pair will be impacted by any Chinese stimulus news and BOJ Yen intervention. Last week’s ‘weekly candle’ looks like it could be a bit of a shooting star reversal candle though...so...maybe some downside coming???
- I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and price breaks up and out of the wedge pattern.
- I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks down from the wedge pattern.
Swissie USD/CHF: Price is still trading within what looks like, to me at least, a bearish broadening ascending wedge pattern or even a bear flag pattern.
- I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and price breaks up and out of the wedge pattern.
- I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks down from the wedge pattern.
Loonie: USD/CAD: Price is still trading in a bearish ascending wedge pattern.
- I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks up and out from the wedge pattern.
- I will look to SHORT the USD/CAD on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks down from the wedge pattern. The weekly pivot is in the way though.
Silver: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is still looking quite bullish. Price is up 500 pips since the TS signal although it didn't move much this week! This metal looks like it has paused, bull flag style, while it waits to gather more steam for the next leg upwards. The weekly candle was an indecision Doji.
Gold: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking quite bullish. Price is up 1200 pips since the TS signal although it didn't move much this week! This metal also looks to be forming a bull flag! The weekly candle here was also an indecision Doji. A falling USD will boost Gold.
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