Trade Spotting: Trading Week 17/09/12

Saturday 22/9 (5.20am)

Just how do they manage to stay between the lines????

I've got bullish signs across a few charts. surprising , yeh... I know......hard to believe given the global bad news. Will post over the w/e.

Last night's 2 signals faded though...A/U closed now at -30 and the G/U= 0

Friday 21/9 (9.50 pm)

Yet another bullish broadening descending wedge????

Friday 21/9 (7 pm)

Might have spoken too soon. Some positive GBP data has triggered some 'risk on' momentum. Those bull and bear flags might evolve tonight!

I've just had a 4 hr candle close and I've got a TS signal on the G/U & A/U for now with others possibly looming soon. I want to see the daily 200 on the EURX broken first though + the trend channels.

Friday 21/9 (6.30 pm)

There is little scheduled news tonight so, unless there are any other news items, I think we could be in for a rather directionless night.

Our footy team is playing in the finals tonight so I'm going to watch that whilst enjoying a glass of wine.

BTW: just wondering...if the bear flag on the USDX doesn't evolve....we might get the beginnings of a 'head and shoulder' pattern starting:

Friday 21/9 (5.30 pm)

Yee ha.....driven home from interstate...picked up a filthy Gen Z Cadet Camp son...I'm home.

The indices are still trading in their channels:

The E/U is still in its channel too:

It's hard to trade at the moment...bad news dips keep getting bought up thanks to the 'Bernanke Put' so that we don't get a sustained 'risk on' or 'risk off' rally.

Friday 21/9 (5.30 am) Flag patterns on the Indices??? Read on!

Some more positive data out of the US overnight seems to have stalled the 'risk off' sentiment even further. The USDX has failed to get back above the weekly 200 EMA:

There is certainly room for pullbacks based on the Ichimoku cloud charts but the problem is now though that there is more resistance in the way of 'risk off' than 'risk on'.

Ummmmm....I've just looked at these charts again....I've put some new trading channels in. Could the USDX be setting up as a bear flag and the EURX as a bull flag??? Time, as they say, will tell!!!!

The E/U is still trading in a trend channel and not giving a clear picture at all:

The A/U is choppy and bounced up off the 4hr 200 EMA and is looking a bit bullish at the moment:

The G/U is still undecided too:

The USD/SGD is giving nothing away. Note the ADX on this pair:

The Swissie looks like it is trying for a 'risk off' rally but price is well outside the Bollinger bands at the moment so that makes me cautious here:

The Loonie is very choppy at the moment:

There are too many mixed signals on the charts at the moment for me so I'm waiting for a clearer picture. I will trade 'risk on' or 'off' BUT only when the picture becomes clearer.

Thursday 20/9 (9.30 pm)

The GBP data was positive too. The markets seem to jump all over any positive news to try to trade 'risk on'. This makes technical trading difficult. There is important US data out later too. No doubt this will drive momentum too. So, no trend line break on E/U yet or TS signal on E/U or G/U.

Thursday 20/9 (5.30 pm)

The Euro data was quite positive so this might stimey the 'risk off' move. Also, the ever present 'Bernanke Put' makes me cautious about trading 'risk off'. I expect we might see some reversal pin bar candles. There is a lot of data out later so I'm going to wait until after these are out. I also want to see more 'risk off' signals kick in. I'm keen on the E/U and G/U short if 'risk off' continues as these have trend line breaks nearby to current price.

Thursday 20/9 (4.40 pm)

Some weak Chinese data has sent the markets back into risk off. The EURX trend line level has been broken:

I've had TS signals to trade 'risk off' on the A/U, E/J, A/J and Loonie so far. No signals just yet though on the E/U, G/U, USD/SGD or Swissie though. There is keenly awaited Euro data due out in 50 min that might kick start these moves though.

Thursday 20/9 (7am) Quiet this week but 2200 pips from TS signals for Sept so far!

We're still in 'wait and see' mode it seems. The EURX has stalled at the previous trend line breakout area:

This may surprise you but I LOVE this sideways action! There are no TS signals in play at all. In fact, all this sideways action has allowed the ADX and DMI lines on nearly all of the pairs to get back down below the 20 level. Why is this so good? It allows me to see the next new momentum trend much more easily...that's why! So, we have a week of little to no action on the 4 hr charts. So what, we've had MASSIVE moves over the last couple of weeks and that king of momentum can't be sustained continuously. TS signals have yielded over 2200 pips for just the first 2 weeks of September!

The E/U: This now, to me at least, looks like it's forming a bull flag pattern:

The G/U: that trend line I had in now looks like it has been attacked but, like with the E/U, this may end up being more of a bull flag pattern in the making too!

The A/U looks like it's thinking of having another go at that major trend line:

Recall that this upper trend line on the A/U has been in play for over 12 months!

Wednesday 19/9 (8 pm)

There seems to be a switch back to 'risk off'. The significant trend line level on the EURX is coming under pressure:

This fluctuation means I don't have any TS signals. The G/U looks close to breaking a daily bull support trend line but the candle has 3 hours until it closes. I'll be tucked up asleep by then! PS: I have relaxed this line a little.

The E/U has broken a daily bull support trend line now too but I don't have a TS signal yet. It may well form by the next candle close though:

Wednesday 19/9 (5 pm)

I don't have TS signals on anything at the moment! There is a lot of US data out tonight. It may take some news to spur things along a bit.

The S&P500 still looks bullish according to the ADX. Elliot wave has it due a pullback though. Both could be right!

The Aussie markets still look bullish too! They had an up day today.

I noted a bullish inverse 'Head and Shoulder' pattern on the Aussie market months ago....it seems to have come through!

Wednesday 19/9 (2.45 pm)

'Risk on' seems to be getting a bit of a boost with some Yen easing:

I was stopped out at 1.303, by just a few pips, from my long E/U trade and it now seems to be heading back on. Such is life.

I am away from home and my desk and will update when possible.

Wednesday 19/9 (6am)

We have the start of either simply a retrace or perhaps a reversal. Only time will tell and, also, the breach of a significant level on the EURX. I mentioned earlier that I expected this index to at least retest the breakout level of the weekly triangle trend line and daily 200 EMA area. Price is now back near this area and this also has the weekly pivot just nearby. This will be a huge level to watch. Failure to breach this level would suggest more 'risk on' and success would suggest a return to 'risk off':

I only have one weak new signal at the moment on the E/U. The USD/SGD signal has stalled and is flat, as has the signal on the A/U although it went 60 or so pips.

I won't be taking any TS signals until this level on the EURX is either breached or rejected though.

I am away for a few days on family business but will update when I can.

Tuesday 18/9 (8 pm)

We are getting a bit of reversal action at the moment:

I'm not sure how much follow through we will get. I still have the signal to short the A/U from earlier today. This is now up about 60 or so pips!

The earlier signal to long the USD/SGD has come through again. I almost have a signal to short the E/U & E/J and long the Loonie. Not an overwhelming vote for 'risk off' yet.

Tuesday 18/9 (6.30 pm)

I've relaxed my stop on my E/U trade, ever so slightly, to 1.303. I have 380 pips still locked in.

Tuesday 18/9 (5.30 pm)

Well, the A/U continues to fall but, as yet, I don't have any signals on any other pairs. I find this odd and it makes me cautious. I do expect at least a pullback but the other pairs seem to be holding up for the time being at least. I need more signals to come through to be convinced of 'risk off'.

Tuesday 18/9 (11.45 am)

The USD/SGD signal has faded before the 4hr candle close...which is in 10 mins. So, I really only have the A/U signal fully formed.

Tuesday 18/9 (11 am)

Hmmm. I've got two 'risk off' signals so far: short A/U and long USD/SGD. That's all though and that is what concerns me. I'll pass on these signals, for now at least, and hope for greater confluence amongst the pairs. I have found that that the best trends emerge when a majority of signals fire off at similar times. I've only got the two for now. I may miss a good and winning trade here but...that happens.

The 'Bernanke Put' seems to be holding the others up for now but this effect may wear off. I am still expecting that if there is no full reversal to 'risk off' then, at the very least, we should get a re-test of the broken trend line from the EURX weekly chart.

If this pause though turns out to be just a bit of a pullback and not a full reversal then that's a good thing too! This gives a chance to get some new TS signals that allow me to get back into some more trades.

Tuesday 18/9 (8.30 am)

The broader markets are fairly non committal too...have been for the last two US sessions:

Tuesday 18/9 (7am)

The indices have paused but there is hardly a pullback yet:

The E/U has just drifted sideways. I've tightened my stop to 1.305 and have locked in 400 pips:

The E/J has added another 80 pips for the week to bring the TS signal tally from last week now up to 310! Look how it reached up to touch the bear trend line. This bear trend line is from the monthly chart and dates back to August 2008!!!!! I'm going to watch this level very closely for a new signal.

This is the E/J monthly chart where you can see the monthly bear trend line. The chart is messy but you get the picture!

The A/U hourly wedge is holding still, for now at least! The irony here though is that this pair has gave a TS short signal on the 1 hr chart which has now given almost 100 pips. I've also had a TS signal to short this pair on the 4hr but with many of the other pairs holding, or trading 'risk on' I'm reluctant to take this signal. I'm not holding so much of a bias but I'm more concerned about the 'divergence'. I'd rather wait to get a clearer overall picture. Although the Loonie is trying to give a 'risk off' signal.

The A/J has had another go at that 83 level. This is another level I'm watching closely. It seems to be a make or break level for this pair:

The G/U has added another 30 pips this week to bring last week's TS signal tally to 260!

There are some significant levels in play at the moment on the E/J, A/J and A/U. I'm not into predicting which way momentum will move. I simply watch the charts and follow the herd. Long or short, I don't care....I'll trade what the charts give me...when I get a clear picture! To me, at the moment though, it looks like the herd is just having a bit of a breather before making an assault on these key levels. It could also prove to be a turning point and I'll switch to 'risk off' when I get some confluence amongst the pairs.

Monday 17/09/12 (9 pm)

Not much happening at the moment. I'm still watching to see if this pattern evolves:

Monday 17/09/12 (6.20 pm)

I'm still thinking we might get some retracement.

BTW: I've been going over some Aussie stocks today and have posted a new page called 'Aussie Stocks' in this blog. I tend to trade US stocks but I keep an eye on the Aussie ones as well.

Monday 17/09/12 (5 pm)

Spoke too soon....that's the problem with lower time frame charts....I've adjusted the trend lines...

Monday 17/09/12 (1 pm)

The Euro is holding up for now whilst there seems to be pressure on the USD. The AUD continues to fall though. I've drilled down to the 1 hr chart to draw in some trend lines. There seems to be yet another descending wedge pattern. These are reversal patterns and suggest a bullish bias. It will be interesting to see how this chart does unfold:

Monday 17/09/12 (10.30am)

It is a quiet day on the scheduled news front. I do suspect that we might get some re-tracement though. There have been huge moves on many pairs and they need time to re-group. I wouldn't be surprised to see the EURX re-visit the broken weekly trend line: