Trade Week Analysis for 17/09/12

1,305 pips from TS signals ....just last week!

Last week: Trend trading with my TradeSpotting system was SPECTACULAR last week. TS signals yielded up to 1615 pips: 1315 pips from new signals during the week week and 300 pips with moves continued from the previous week! These trades were discussed in advance and trade entry signals were posted here on my blog for all to see. I am not at all surprised about the moves over the last 2 weeks. August was a very choppy/sideways month and the best trends come out of these periods and, 'come out' they sure did!

Tally: E/U 360, E/J 55 & 230, A/U 70 & 80, A/J 60 & 120, G/U 230 and the Swissie 100. The USD/SGD added 180 this week to give a move worth 270 overall and the Loonie added 120 this week to bring its move to 200 overall. See charts below. 

This week: Signals on many pairs are still running: E/U, E/J, A/U (only just though), A/J, G/U, USD/SGD and Swissie! I won't be surprised if we get a bit of a pullback in this 'risk on' rally though (see my FX Indices Analysis for more detail here).

BTW: I've updated my Stocks: Sept page.

E/U: Price broke through the bear trend line on the weekly charts that dated back 12 months to August last year! That bullish monthly inverse H&S pattern seems to be playing out! The daily 200 has also now been broken. The E/U gave a TS signal last week and this is still running and up 360 pips!

• I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  
• I am still LONG the E/U based on the trend line break from the previous week.  I’ve got 340 pips locked in.

E/J: The E/J has given a TS signal last week and broken out of its upward trend channel. This TS signal is still running and is up 230 pips.

• I will look to SHORT the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  The monthly pivot, previous trend line and 4hr 200 EMA are in the way of price falling though.
• I will look to LONG the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains. 

A/U: There is still a possible bull flag pattern in play on the monthly chart. Price broke out and up from trading within a bullish descending broadening wedge pattern. Price has moved 460 pips since bouncing off the bottom wedge trend line! Price has now risen to hit up against the weekly bear trend line that has been in play since July last year. This is a significant level of resistance for the A/U and may prove too hard to navigate! Note the almost 'gravestone' Doji on the daily chart. This is an indication of the indecision surrounding this move on this pair and can be a reversal sign. The A/U has given three TS signals since last week. The current TS signal is still running, but only just.

• I might SHORT the A/U if ‘risk off’ returns. 
• I am LONG the A/U on the current signal and at b/e. I'll look to enter again if stopped out though and if this pair attacks the upper trend line again.

A/J: The A/J has been rather choppy but gave two TS signals last week. The current TS signal is up 120 pips. Price is currently trying to get up and over the 83 level. This level is strong resistance as a whole and psychological number as well as being previous strong S/R. I’m not keen on the Yen pairs at the moment.

• I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns. 
• I MIGHT long the A/J on the next new TS signal if ‘risk on’ remains and it can hold and close above the 83 level. 

G/U: Price has hardly looked back since closing above the daily 200 EMA and the S/R level of 1.58. This pair gave a TS signal last week which is still running and has given up to 230 pips. The daily chart shows how price is coming up to a ‘double top’ area though, a psychological phenomenon if nothing else, that may possibly slow any future up movement.

• I would look to LONG the G/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ remains and if price holds above the 1.58 level.
• I MIGHT look to SHORT the G/U on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns. 

USD/SGD: Price has continued to fall since breaking down from trading within a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. There is a TS signal short in play on this pair already and this is up 270 pips.

Swissie USD/CHF: Price is still trading down under a bear trend line and under the  daily 200 EMA. A TS short formed up only late last week but  is up around  100 pips.

• I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  
• I MIGHT look to SHORT the USD/CHF on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ remains.  

Loonie:  USD/CAD: The weekly bull trend line was broken last week and a new TS short signal was received. This trade yielded up to 200 pips.

• I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  
• I will look to short the Loonie on any new TS signal if 'risk on' remains.

Silver: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is still looking quite bullish. Price is up 500 pips since the TS signal!  Note the indecision ‘spinning top’ candle from Friday though.

Gold: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking quite bullish. Price is up 1200 pips since the TS signal! Note the indecision ‘spinning top’ candle from Friday here though too.