The indices continue to trade 'risk on' but the EURX is now running into the key resistance level of the weekly bear trend line and daily 200 EMA:
The TS signals are still rolling on and up:
- From earlier this week: E/U up 230 & G/U up 180 pips
- From this am: E/J up 50, A/U up 50, A/J up 50 & Swissie up 15 pips
- From last week: USD/SGD up 240 and Loonie up 200 pips.
I had a new TS signal on the A/U and A/J after the 8am candle this morning and have taken the A/U trade long. The E/J is about to form a signal too. I also had a TS signal to short the Swissie but I'm not taking this as I'm still in the E/U long:
The signals on the E/U, G/U USD/SGD and Loonie are still going too. This is d'Artagnan stuff...."all for one and one for all"!
The Fed surprised all with a QE3 announcement. This sent the USD tumbling, the Euro up and my pip haul on TS signals soaring!:
The important thing to note now is how the EURX is now fast approaching some key resistance in the form of a major bear trend line, dating back to early last year and the daily 200 EMA. This could give continued 'risk on' a bit of a headache:
The E/U kept moving. The TS signal for this week is up to 130. I'm still in this trade from last week which is up 350 and I have 230 locked in:
The E/J is just back to where it was yesterday and up about 50 pips:
The A/J hasn't done too much either and is back to yesterday's levels:
The G/U is now up 150 pips!
The USD/SGD is up 210 pips from last week and has added 100 pips this week:
The Swissie didn't give a clear TS signal and it hasn't done too much at all this week:
The Loonie is up 170 from last week's TS signal and has given 80 pips extra this week:
A closer look at the A/U
I'm annoyed at getting stopped out, yet again, with too tight a stop on A/U trade! This is too familiar a story for me. Yeh....I made 100 pips on it last week but...that was last week and I've missed good moves this week. So, what next for my trading the A/U. Well, I think I can safely say that my bullish descending broadening wedge analysis of this pair was SPOT ON! The actual move now from the bounce off the bottom trend line is a whopping 400 pips!
You can just see on the daily chart (above) how price is approaching a bear trend line that originated on the weekly chart from July last year. The weekly chart is posted below:
I have had the A/U trading within, what I thought looked like, a bull flag pattern on the monthly chart for some time now too:
So, I'm going to wait now until price gets closer to this significant bear trend line. This is only 100 pips away from current price. This level will probably coincide with the EURX reaching its trend line on its daily chart. (see chart at the top of this post).
Not a whole lot happening ahead of the Fed meeting. Momentum could shift quickly either way on the news so, I'd be very cautious with any further trading. I'm waiting now until after the news before taking any new trades. I'm still long on the A/U (stop at entry) and the E/U (150 pips locked in).
BTW: I've updated my Option trades from last night on the Stocks: Sept page.
Thursday 13/9 (7am): TS signals this week give up to 390 new pips and 150 continued pips!
TS has had another great week thus far but I'd be very cautious now ahead of the Fed meeting. I think that any new trade order would probably come with......"and would you like spikes with that...", rather than "fries"!
There have been 390 pips from new signals this week and 150 with continued moves with TS signals from last week.
There have been 390 pips from new signals this week and 150 with continued moves with TS signals from last week.
The indices have both parked themselves near previously strong S/R levels, most probably until after the Fed news. The USDX is parked just under the weekly 200 EMA which was previously support but is now probably resistance. The EURX is parked just above the 100.5 level. Previous resistance but now support:
The E/U is now holding above the new support level of the daily 200 EMA. The signal this week has yielded up to 130 pips:
The E/J has been rather ordinary but has still yielded up to 50 pips!
The A/U has moved about 70 pips and is now parked above the support of the broken bear trend line. I am still in this trade from this week...just. I was only stopped out of this trade from last week by 3 pips! Had I stayed in I though would have had the joy of a 250 pip move!
The A/J is rather ordinary too with just a 40 pip max move:
The G/U has given up to 100 pips:
The USD/SGD has yielded 90 pips this week but the signal is still running from last week and is at 180 pips now:
The Loonie has offered up to 60 pips this week but the TS signal running tally from last week stands at 150 pips max:
I have been filled on my Option orders overnight and will update my Set stocks page later today. I am out for the morning.
I'm not taking any new FX trades until after the Fed release.
FX:The 'risk on' TS signals keep powering along for the time being: E/U, E/J, A/U, A/J, G/U, USD/SGD & Loonie. The weekly 200 EMA is being tested on the USDX. Things could turn quickly though so I'm being cautious sticking to just the A/U and E/U.
Options: I've got cheeky orders in to buy Calls on DGS and GWX and sell a Put on INTC. I'm stalking BHP, SLX and X to name just a few too. I'll post their charts & more details tomorrow in the Sept page.
The E/J and A/J kicked in with TS signals earlier today too. I'm just sticking to my E/U and A/U longs though. The next couple of days could be quite volatile with news etc. I've moved my stop to entry on the A/U. The USDX weekly 200 EMA is holding up the USD for now. Will it hold or fold????
I took the A/U long as per thoughts this am (see 7am post). I've also updated my Sept stocks page.
Hooley Dooley....my lamb ragu was pretty ordinary last night but...gee....I nailed it with my technical analysis!
Have a look at the chart breakouts I posted yesterday that I said to watch for! BTW...some new TS signals have kicked in too.
E/U: I have had a new TS signal and this has now also broken and closed above the daily 200. I'm still in this trade from last week though. I've locked in 150 pips and the trade is currently up 200 pips. Yeah!
E/J: still conforming....for the moment. Maybe some Yen strength holding this back??? No TS here yet.
A/U: Whoa...look at this bolter.... I made 100 pips on this TS trade last wee. It is still bound by the bullish descending broadening wedge. There has been a new TS signal here. I'm going to take this on a trend line break.
A/J: hmmm. A break but rather uninspiring. No TS here yet.
G/U: Has held above the psychological 1.6 level. I've had a TS long as well as the triangle break.
USD/SGD: This is still going from last week's TS signal....now up 170 pips!
Loonie: This is still going from last week's TS signal too.... now up 140 pips!
Still waiting for a clear break. No TS signals yet.
Not a whole lot happening. Check my charts from earlier post.
Tuesday 11/9 (10 am)
I'm getting no clues from the S&P500 just yet:
If you were to ask me, I'd say that the E/U looks like it's printing a bullish descending broadening wedge pattern:
We've had a few of these patterns lately. The most recent example was the the A/U and that gave a huge move last week in our favour. The move, once it bounced off the bottom trend line, went for almost 250 pips!
The G/U is forming a mini triangle pattern:
The E/J is forming a sort of triangle too:
The A/U is trading in a mini trend channel or flag pattern too:
So, too, is the A/J:
The USD/SGD is hanging near the monthly 200 EMA:
The Swissie has paused to rest just above the daily 200 EMA:
And the Lonnie, being a bit loonie, has paused in the middle of nowhere!
I don't have any new TS signals for now. I'll be jumping on whatever they serve up though...'risk on' or 'risk off'...whatever the charts say! Both of the indices have moved away from their Ichimoku clouds on their daily charts. This means that there is room for a possible retrace in the form of 'risk off' momentum before hitting the clouds again:
The 'risk on' rally stalled overnight ahead of two key news items later this week: Fed announcement and the German Court ruling. It is not surprising though really after the tremendous run up last week. This could be a turning point back to 'risk off' or, simply, a pause with the EURX forming a bull flag and the USDX forming a bear flag. Only time will tell. Both indices are hiding near their weekly pivots!
I don't mind as I will trade both directions on TS signals. I don't have any new TS signals for 'risk off' yet.
I was stopped out of my A/U trade for 105 pips and my A/J trade for 52.5 pips. My E/U is still going with 100 locked in.
The E/U is trading just under the resistance of the daily 200 EMA:
The E/J could be turning or forming a bull flag too:
The A/U seems undecided as to what to do:
I'll draw in trend lines on these charts later...after the cricket and school drop off!
The indices haven't done too much today. There is little scheduled news tonight so they may stay quiet:
I've been stopped out for 105 pips on my A/U TS trade. The A/J is still going...just. My E/U trend line break trade is still going too with 100 pips locked in.
No new TS signals just yet.
There isn't a whole happening at the moment. I think the markets are waiting on some Chinese Trade balance data before deciding which way to move from here:
I've locked in 100 pips on both my E/U and A/U long trades and 60 pips on the A/J long. Any return to 'risk off' will see me stopped out quite quickly.
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