The NFP data was positive so this helped to drop the USDX a bit. It is worth noting that the USDX is still under the Ichimoku Cloud on both the daily and 4hr charts. The EURX has also held above the daily 200 EMA.
Some frustration here1 The E/J trade that I left is now up 200 pips and the EUR/AUD that I left is now up 300 pips!
FX momentum is in the lap of the NFP Gods for today. I'll check in on Sat am.
E/U: this pair has moved up 110 pips or so since it broke out from the bearish wedge. It has now retraced to the 61.8% level though and many, who trade bounces, will be looking to short this pair here.
E/J: this has moved 220 + pips since the wedge breakout and is also at the 61.8% retrace level. So, here too, many who trade bounces will look to short here.
NFP will probably decide the fate of both these pairs plus others.
I'm back now but little has changed since this morning Most pairs are trading sideways, as they often do leading into the NFP data release.
The new signals from this am are all up a bit but I'd move stops to entry given its NFP.
Charts and thoughts as per 6am post. I'll be back later this arvo. Maybe have a listen to this..my fav at the moment....a bit of 'language' in it though but still...pretty....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-U16iKiXGuY
As often happens, things started to unfold during my night time! The USDX appears to have conformed to the bearish wedge and H&S pattern on my 4hr charts:
The EURX has also closed above the daily 200 EMA now in a somewhat bullish move:
The USDX is now trading back under the Ichimoku Cloud on both the 4 hr and daily charts:
The EURX is trading back above the Cloud on both its 4 hr and daily chart too. Does this mean that 'risk on' momentum is guaranteed? ABSOLUTELY NOT, as random bad news items can always derail such technical moves. It does SUGGEST to me that the path is clearer for 'risk on' than 'risk off' though and, that is about as clear as anything gets in trading! The job now is to look for TS signals on pairs where they are trading in alignment on their 4hr and daily Ichimoku charts. Extra care is need though given it is NFP today so trade management is key here. I'll move stops to entry ASAP. I've had 3 signals so far:
E/U: signal came over night and it is trading above the cloud on the 4hr and daily:
G/U: I've had a TS signal but it has a little way to close above the 4hr Cloud. It is already above the daily Cloud:
Swissie: I've had a TS signal and trend line break here. Price is trading below the Cloud on both the daily and 4hr charts:
Loonie: I've had a TS signal and trend line break. price is below the Cloud on the daily but in the Cloud, heading down at the moment, on the 4hr:
I see it, I believe it....I just don't get it BUT....I'll trade it. I'm long the E/U and looking at the G/U next.
I'm travelling home today so will not be around too much.
PS: Just noticed the EUR/AUD. it is now up 200 pips from the trend line break I pointed out earlier this week. And to think I left this pair due to the spread...more fool me!
PS: Just noticed the EUR/AUD. it is now up 200 pips from the trend line break I pointed out earlier this week. And to think I left this pair due to the spread...more fool me!
PS: E/J: I had ignored this TS signal earlier in the week as it was a 'risk on' signal and I was waiting for the Cloud charts to align. Well, it is now up 150 pips! Hmmm. Just shows that not every thing conforms in FX! All food for thought down here!
Ok...I'm off for a walk, listening to Lana del Ray, before heading home.
Not much has changed since I last posted so......that's it for now. Roll on all the red flag news items. See @ http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
I realise that many believe that the Euro shouldn't be rallying, the stock market shouldn't be bullish, and we should be heading for 'risk off' trading. I see that and I understand BUT my charts, for ages, have been printing bullish patterns for 'risk on' and they still are today! Take a look at the 4 hr USDX chart and you'll see a familiar pattern that would be favorable for a rallying stock market:
The EURX had its bullish breakout and is now thinking of taking on the daily 200 EMA!
The USDX daily Cloud chart shows what, to me, looks like a bear flag:
I still would wait for a close below the cloud on the USDX 4hr chart, to bring it into alignment with the daily chart, before trading any 'risk on' momentum or TS signals.
It feels like things are gearing up for a big move and NFP may be just the kick start to do so!
I'm going to assess the charts and see what my currency pair preference is for either move; 'risk on' or 'risk off'.
I'm going to assess the charts and see what my currency pair preference is for either move; 'risk on' or 'risk off'.
I've updated some info for a 'Stocks: Oct' page.
Thursday 4/10 (10.20 am)
I've just had a look at the USDX again. An interesting pattern forming. Can you see it?
The old 'Irish Blessing' comes to my mind when I look at the 4hr Ichimoku chart....but rather than 'May the road rise to meet you' I'd prefer 'May the Cloud to rise to meet price'. That way, I'd get some convergence back between the 4hr and daily Ichimoku charts!
It's been a strange week with the USDX bouncing sideways but the EURX creeping slowly upwards:
There have been alternating 'risk on' and 'risk off' moves, albeit mostly small moves on many of the pairs. The only major moves so far this week have been on the Aussie pairs and this was 'news driven' due to interest rates cuts.
The A/U is now either paused, waiting to reverse, or forming a bear flag before the next down move:
The A/J continues to confuse me. I've adjusted to the trend line on the 4 hr chart to reflect the latest S/R levels. Also, the daily candle from yesterday was a pin bar reversal candle suggesting the down move might have come to an end on this pair for the time being. The 79.5 level continues to be a key level here though:
There is the added factor of the Presidential debate today and NFP Friday tomorrow to further complicate trading. I still think it would be wisest to wait until a clear direction is in play before trying to trend trade off 4hr charts.
Thursday 4/10 (6am)
Stock and currency markets have ended up flat after bouncing around amid news of positive US data but ongoing global concerns. The USDX is still under the 80 level but above the trend line:
Price on the USDX is still trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4 hr but below the cCloud on the daily
The TS signals noted yesterday are all still ticking along though:
A/U: has bounced a bit.
A/J: has also bounce a bit. I had said I wouldn't short the A/J BUT if the USD/JPY keeps rising AND if this breaks the neckline level of 79.5 THEN I would be tempted
USD/SGD: trading sideways
NZD/USD: This may tumble quite a bit IF 'risk off' continues and the 4 hr 200 EMA is broken:
The G/U is a strange one this week. It has broken down from its trading channel but I have the weakest of TS signals only, not enough for me to be confident to trade on:
The E/U can't seem to decide what to do so it's doing nothing!
Technical trading is really tough at the moment with so many major 'fundamental' style news events impacting the markets. I would be waiting until after NFP Friday now and, also, I'd had stops to entry ASAP on any open trades with the markets being so jittery.
So it's back to 'risk on' now! I've been harping on about how the Ichimoku daily and 4hr divergence warned me to expect choppiness! I also said over the w/e I wouldn't trade 'risk on' until the USDX broke below the 4hr Ichimoku Cloud and I wouldn't trade 'risk off' unless the USDX closed and held above the 80. Neither of these have evolved as yet. So, the wait continues!
The EURX is trying to close above the previous trend line ....again:
Something gotta give sooner or later.
The choppy markets continue. We've got a return to 'risk off' today. The USDX rallied off the wedge bottom trend line and the EURX was rejected at its previous trend line:
I've had a few 'risk off' TS signals:
A/U: this TS signal was actually from the holiday Monday and has moved 120 pips. It has moved 60 pips from the trend line break though too:
The A/U could fall another 280 pips before the next support trend line, shown here on the daily chart:
A/J: this has given a TS signal plus a trend line break. I looked out to the daily chart and I noticed the strong support there is at around the 79.5 area. It is a huge support level. BUT...then I noticed what looks like a bit of a Head and Shoulder pattern. These are bearish patterns. It gets better than that though!. The neck line, where it would be safest to enter this trade...is at the 79.5 area! Talk about confluence!
USD/SGD
EUR/AUD: this pair has actually moved about 120 pips from the trend line break and 180 pips from the point where I suggested to watch it from!
I feel I've missed these moves and won't chase them. It's holidays here and things are rather disrupted for me. I'm away at the moment and this makes it a bit harder to keep up with everything. Rather, I'll wait to see if 'risk off' continues and catch the E/U or G/U if they give signals:
I'll keep an eye on the 79.5 for the A/J though too.
The problem for me with continued 'risk off' is the divergence on the daily and 4hr indices Cloud charts. This just seems to make for extra choppiness; a fact I'm seeing playing out at the moment with the varying and mixed signals.
NB: There are lots of charts loaded in this post now. you'll have to click, multiple time, to enlarge them
Ok, the markets are choppy. The DOW is down, NASDAQ and S&P500 up a bit and the currencies are mixed. I expected nothing less due to persistent divergence on the Ichimoku 4hr and daily charts. (USDX divergence shown below). This choppiness used to frustrate me. Not any more. Knowledge is power and power brings patience. Well it does to me at least! I'm waiting for convergence here before trading any 'risk on' moves:
The USDX tried to break down but didn't quite make it and the EURX is struggling on its uphill battle at the previous monthly bear trend line:
The E/U has broken out of its wedge but I don't have a TS signal yet:
The E/J is just drifting along, no TS signal here yet:
The A/U has had a trend line break now:
The A/J is heading for a trend line break. I have a TS short here:
The G/U is simply drifting, non-committal style with no TS signal
The USD/SGD is still conforming to the wedge pattern with no TS signal:
The Swissie has had a trend line break from its wedge pattern in a 'risk on' kind of move BUT no TS signal:
The Loonie is still trading 'risk off', conforming to its wedge pattern and also no TS signal:
The NZD/USD gave up on its attempt at another trend line break:
The EUR/AUD has now moved 160 pips since I first posted yesterday that it is one to watch! It is looking bullish indeed and spells bad news for the poor AUD:
What a mixed bag! The USDX flat-lining still, the EURX heading up and we've had some 'risk off' and some 'risk on' types of moves!
I'm waiting patiently. I've got to head interstate again for a few days. I'll update though later today.
We may be on for a 'risk on' night. The E/U is currently trying for a trend line break. I don't have a TS signal yet, or a break down below the Cloud on the USDX 4hr, though:
The S&P500 is up for the time being too ahead of the US market open.There was a TS 'long' signal earlier on my 30 min charts that is already up 60 pips. This would have made for a great SPY Call Option trade! See my 'TS + SPY' page for details about these trades.
The USDX is still flat-lining but the EURX looks a bit bullish:
The A/U does look bearish but, if we get some 'risk on' moves this will probably get dragged along and up with it. So, I still want to see trend line break to confirm a breakdown here. Hmmmbut is that a hammer reversal candle there?:
The E/U is essentially just going sideways but trying to break up and out:
Is that a reversal candle on the A/J I see there....green pin bar hammer???
Swissie is getting close to its trend line too:
The Kiwi looks like it's having another go at that trend line:
Price is trying to break up from the 'neck line' on oil. A falling USD will help this:
The USDX 4hr Cloud is getting close to price now:
The USDX 4hr Cloud is getting close to price now:
So...lots almost happening! Something has to give soon, one way or the other!
Tuesday 2/10 (5 pm)
The indices are sort of doing their own version of a cardiac 'flat-lining' thing:
I still have no clear picture whether the next major move will be 'risk on' or 'risk off' so I'll keep waiting for that and, also, for some convergence on the daily and 4hr Ichimoku charts. I'm also keeping an eye on Gold. A fall in the USD, if it eventuates, might see Gold rally and this might also drag the A/U along with it. So, whilst the A/U currently looks quite bearish, it may get drawn into a Gold rally.
The A/U suffered due to the surprise interest rate cut today. It's approaching a support trend line and needs watching. It's still the least worst of most currencies out there though, well, to me at least. I'd really want to see a clear break and hold below the trend line before being confident on shorting this pair. BTW Most Asian markets were up today following the US lead but Europe is opening lower, courtesy of Spain worries.
The EUR/AUD has closed above the trend line break out area but might pull back a bit given that it closed well out of the Bollinger bands. I do have a TS signal to long this but it is very weak and, given the recent huge break out and up on this pair, I find this surprising...it spells 'warning' to me. Worth watching though for sure:
I'm out for a few hours now. Keep the 'flat-lining' thing going for me please!
Hmmm...that trend line on the EUR/AUD that I discussed earlier in my 10.30 am post....have a look at it now:
There also seems to be some 'risk on' momentum creeping into the indices. The USDX is losing its grip on the 80 level and the EURX has now closed above the 100.5 S/R level:
Seeing some 'risk on' against the Yen pairs. I can't see any info about Yen and BOJ easing though. AUD data due out in 1 hr:
Tuesday 2/10 (10.30 am): A look at the EUR/AUD (EA)
I don't usually trade the EUR/AUD due the large spread that this pair sometimes commands. I used to watch it more closely but haven't been doing so too much lately. Just recently though I've started to watch it again as I focus more on 'risk on' and 'risk off' trade set ups. To me, this pair has two 'risk on' currencies...the EUR and the AUD. So, if we get a return to either 'risk on' or 'risk off', which of these two will assume the 'risk' status relative to the other?
I've analysed the charts across all time frames and, I have to say, that according to the charts, the EUR/AUD looks bullish. This means that the EUR looks to be more bullish than the AUD! This, to me, defies all logic as well as some bullish patterns I've seen on the A/U charts but, that's what I'm seeing.
E/A monthly chart: a bottoming pattern with a possible 'railroad track' reversal style candle pattern:
EA weekly chart : a bullish descending wedge pattern?
EA daily chart: a bull flag pattern with price almost nearing the wedge trend line break out?
EA 4hr chart: price is trading above the daily 200 EMA, weekly pivot and monthly pivot.
Now I have both the E/U and A/U trading within bullish patterns too. All 3 charts can't be correct though. If the E/U and A/U keep trading in tandem with each other then the EUR/AUD chart would simply go back to flat lining like it did as seen on the monthly chart prior to 2008. I'll keep an eye on this pair too.
Tuesday 2/10 (9.40 am)
Nothing to report. Little has changed. I've been looking back at the EUR/AUD during this quiet period and will post my observations here later. I can't take the spread on this pair though and, thus, won't trade it.
Hey guys...it's Moses here...just kidding. I do feel like I have been protected from some choppy markets by my latest Epiphany though! The indices have chopped around again overnight. The USDX is clinging onto the weekly 200 EMA and weekly pivot and the EURX onto the 100.5 S/R level:
It seems that all movement is hamstrung...straight jacket style...the 'Bernanke Put' is one arm of the jacket and Global Debt Worry is the other arm!
I'm protected from getting chopped around on the 4 hr charts by the divergence on the Ichimoku Cloud charts for the 4hr and daily charts on both indices. The USDX shown here though:
Just look and see how the major pairs have chopped around on 4 hr time frames:
There were some potential shorter time frame trades yesterday though. I have noted this before that when the 4hr charts are too choppy then the 30 min charts, during the London and or US session, can often deliver some pips. The E/U gave a 70 pip TS trend trade from the London session yesterday:
I'm waiting, calmly and patiently though for the 4 hr charts. Some traders want a system that delivers signals every day. What's the point if momentum moves aren't there? Not much point trying to do 'Stand Up Paddle Boarding' when the waves are 6 foot! I use this song at times to remind people of my view of my trading..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo
I'm waiting, calmly and patiently though for the 4 hr charts. Some traders want a system that delivers signals every day. What's the point if momentum moves aren't there? Not much point trying to do 'Stand Up Paddle Boarding' when the waves are 6 foot! I use this song at times to remind people of my view of my trading..... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo
Monday 1/10 (8.40 pm)
There is still no clear picture. The USDX is scrambling to try and get back above the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX is trying to claw its way above the 100.5 level which is a previous S/R level:
We're seeing some 'risk on' now. Don't know where it's coming from as most of the data out today is quite poor.
Someone, somewhere, must of said something!
I kinda feel like what Moses must have felt like when he got those Tablets. I'm sure he felt that a calming, yet powerful, form of insight and wisdom had been bestowed on him. I'm feeling pretty similar since my most recent w/e Ichimoku Epiphany! I have no expectations of the current currency markets until some key levels are broken.
It's a Public holiday here today so I have been a bit busy but, if nothing changes too much on the currency front, I'll spend tomorrow reviewing my Options trades. This pattern on Oil caught my eye though:
The 80 level is still giving the USDX some grief!
The 80 level on the USDX is proving to be a bit of a hurdle. I want to see a close and hold above this before considering any 'risk off' signals:
The signals on the A/U, USD/SGD and Swissie formed up but, like I said above, I'm waiting for confirmation and, also, some confluence from other signals. I'm also loathe to take any AUD trade before tomorrow's interest rate news.
Monday 1/10 (11 am)
The Chinese data was neither good nor bad and doesn't seem to have impacted the markets.
Whilst I'm happy to trade 'risk off' I'm conscious of the divergence on the 4hr and daily Ichimoku Cloud charts so I'm wanting good strong TS signals, with lot's of confluence and with trend line breaks before taking trades this week. So far, I've had only faint suggestions of 'risk off' signals trying to form on the A/U, USD/SGD and Swissie.
It's been a 'risk off' morning so far. I have my fist 4 hr candle close at 11 am and that is when there is some red flag China data due out. It is a Public holiday here today so I'll check in when I'm around.
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