Trade Spotting: Trade Week Analysis for 03/09/12

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Trade Week Analysis for 03/09/12

Last week: Trend trading on the 4 hr charts was choppy last week. I was expecting this though as price on the daily EURX chart was embedded in the Ichimoku cloud. Friday’s daily candle though closed just up above the cloud on the daily EURX chart. The path seems clear for some possible ‘risk on’ trading if this trend continues.

This week: Liquidity should return this week with the end of the northern hemisphere summer holiday season. There is a lot of news this week though which could shake things up a bit. AUD interest rate on Tue, ECB on Thursday and NFP on Friday. These 'fundamental' type of events have the potential to undermine any 'technical analysis' so, be careful trading this week. My 'Indices Analysis' revealed a few bullish signals for 'risk on' momentum but the above, and any other unscheduled, news events might change all that.

NB: I am away a bit this week; traveling and quite busy with some family commitments. I'll update where possible.

E/U: Price is butting up against the bear trend line on the weekly charts that dates back 12 months to August last year! This trend line is near to the previously strong S/R level of 1.262. So, I'm expecting some reaction around this level. That bullish monthly inverse H&S pattern could still be on the cards though! Some might find it better to wait until after Thursday's ECB meeting before trading this pair this week.

I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.

I will look to LONG the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds above the upper triangle trend line.

E/J: Price is trading within an upwards trend channel. The ECB meeting will probably dictate this pair this week too.

I will look to SHORT the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns. The monthly pivot, previous trend line and 4hr 200 EMA are in the way of price falling though.

I will look to LONG the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.

A/U: There is still a possible bull flag pattern in play on the monthly chart. Price is also currently trading within a bullish descending broadening wedge pattern on the daily chart. The A/U has been dragged down recently by falling commodity prices, especially Coal. A falling USD and rising Gold price might reverse this trend. A lowering of AUD interest rates would probably be bearish for the AUD though so, patience and caution and needed with Aussie pairs this week.

I will SHORT the A/U if ‘risk off’ returns and price breaks, closes and holds down below the wedge trend line.

I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.

A/J: Price is trading within a downward trend channel. Watch out for AUD news this week here too.

I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the trend channel.

I will look to LONG the A/J on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and if prices breaks, closes & holds above the trend channel.

G/U: Price has managed to hold above some significant levels last week; the daily 200 EMA and the S/R level of 1.58.

I would look to LONG the G/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ remains and if price holds above the 1.58 level.

I MIGHT look to SHORT the G/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns and if price breaks and holds below the 1.58 area BUT there are lots of road blocks in the way.