Saturday 23/6 (6am)
'Risk off' paused overnight which is hardly surprising given the massive moves from the night before. There has been just so much bad news it seems that the markets just can't take it all lying down. The USDX is still out of its broadening wedge channel but the EURX is trying to crawl back into its channel:
Logic would point to a continued USD rally given all of the bad news but the markets seem to want to adopt 'risk on' where ever possible. This is a time for caution and for trading off shorter time frames for sure.
The 4 hr TS signals from yesterday have stalled with most of the pairs at much the same position now as they were yesterday or slightly positive. I would not hold onto 'risk off' positions over the w/e though given the current volatility and the urge to adopt positive 'risk on' sentiment. This 'risk off' sentiment may pick up again next week but I would rather wait and jump back in again then. This is clearly back to one of those periods where trading off shorter time frame charts during the US session is preferable. There were 580 pips on offer on the 30 min charts using TS on Thursday night alone to confirm this.
Friday 22/6 (6.50 pm)
It was raining pips last night during the US session! 200 pips on the S&P500 even!
Friday 22/6 (6 pm)
I've added a new tally: TS pips Tally. This will tally the 4hr TS signals that I have flagged during any one week once the trend has finished. TS usually does better than me so I thought it only fair to give credit where credit is due! The June tally does not include this week; just the previous 2 weeks.
Friday 22/6 (5 pm) : 580 pips possible in just one session!
Oh how I envy people who are able to 'live' trade during the London and US sessions. There were hundreds of pips on offer on the shorter time frame 30 min charts trading very low risk: high reward TS signals. 580 pips were on offer using TS on the pairs I have been stalking. This is over a month worth of pips in one session. This was no random fluke. I've been watching and waiting for these break outs for 3 weeks now. It is rather annoying that I was asleep when the big moves started. At least I have the comfort of knowing I have a great trend trading system!
See the 30 min chart below:
E/U 100 pips
A/U 100 pips
G/U 90 pips
USD/SGD 60 pips
Swissie 70 pips
Loonie 60 pips
NZD/USD 100 pips
Friday 22/6 (4.30 pm)
I'm only just home from a day at the hospital. What joy! The indices look like they might be starting to pick up with more 'risk off' sentiment though. They kind of stalled to take breath during the Asian session. There is always the possibility of some news item likely to kick the markets back into positive 'risk on' mode in a heart beat though so, caution is needed here.
I wouldn't even be surprised to see a bit of a pullback to test the broken trend lines. I have been waiting for these moves as they have been brewing for almost 3 weeks now and they involve significant shifts. Only time will tell if this trend continues though.
I don't have any further signals. the E/J and A/J are doing there own thing but with BoJ intervention likely I'm happy to ignore them. I haven't even been looking at the U/J as it is so fickle.
'Risk off' paused overnight which is hardly surprising given the massive moves from the night before. There has been just so much bad news it seems that the markets just can't take it all lying down. The USDX is still out of its broadening wedge channel but the EURX is trying to crawl back into its channel:
Logic would point to a continued USD rally given all of the bad news but the markets seem to want to adopt 'risk on' where ever possible. This is a time for caution and for trading off shorter time frames for sure.
The 4 hr TS signals from yesterday have stalled with most of the pairs at much the same position now as they were yesterday or slightly positive. I would not hold onto 'risk off' positions over the w/e though given the current volatility and the urge to adopt positive 'risk on' sentiment. This 'risk off' sentiment may pick up again next week but I would rather wait and jump back in again then. This is clearly back to one of those periods where trading off shorter time frame charts during the US session is preferable. There were 580 pips on offer on the 30 min charts using TS on Thursday night alone to confirm this.
Friday 22/6 (6.50 pm)
It was raining pips last night during the US session! 200 pips on the S&P500 even!
Friday 22/6 (6 pm)
I've added a new tally: TS pips Tally. This will tally the 4hr TS signals that I have flagged during any one week once the trend has finished. TS usually does better than me so I thought it only fair to give credit where credit is due! The June tally does not include this week; just the previous 2 weeks.
Friday 22/6 (5 pm) : 580 pips possible in just one session!
Oh how I envy people who are able to 'live' trade during the London and US sessions. There were hundreds of pips on offer on the shorter time frame 30 min charts trading very low risk: high reward TS signals. 580 pips were on offer using TS on the pairs I have been stalking. This is over a month worth of pips in one session. This was no random fluke. I've been watching and waiting for these break outs for 3 weeks now. It is rather annoying that I was asleep when the big moves started. At least I have the comfort of knowing I have a great trend trading system!
See the 30 min chart below:
E/U 100 pips
Friday 22/6 (4.30 pm)
I'm only just home from a day at the hospital. What joy! The indices look like they might be starting to pick up with more 'risk off' sentiment though. They kind of stalled to take breath during the Asian session. There is always the possibility of some news item likely to kick the markets back into positive 'risk on' mode in a heart beat though so, caution is needed here.
I wouldn't even be surprised to see a bit of a pullback to test the broken trend lines. I have been waiting for these moves as they have been brewing for almost 3 weeks now and they involve significant shifts. Only time will tell if this trend continues though.
I don't have any further signals. the E/J and A/J are doing there own thing but with BoJ intervention likely I'm happy to ignore them. I haven't even been looking at the U/J as it is so fickle.
Friday 22/6 (8am)
Friday 22/6 (4am)
Yes...4am! And, I'm not happy. The correlation of 'risk off' trend breaks I have been waiting for have all powered through whilst I was sleeping. The bullish descending broadening wedge on the USDX finally evolved and the bearish ascending broadening wedge looks to be about to as well.
E/U
There have been a lot of signals today. See today's 4am posting! I am out at the hospital for most of the day for ongoing check ups.
Thursday 21/6 (7.30 pm)
'Risk off' sentiment has taken a bit of a hit with the release of some positive GBP retail data. There is always a stronger tendancy to run with 'risk on' sentiment where possible so I'm going to be on the lookout for new TS signals in either direction.
PS: Apologies BUT e-mail me if you caught the note before and want info.
Thursday 21/6 (2.30 pm)
We are starting to see some 'risk off' sentiment alignment with the pairs after the hopes of QE3 were dashed overnight. I'm looking for new TS signals and trend line breaks on the following with the A/U and Loonie looking likely to set up first. Get excited guys!
E/U
Thursday 21/6 (7am)
The USD strengthened a bit after hope of QE3 were dashed overnight.
There are a lot of spikes evident on most of the pairs. I do see the A/J trade I jumped out of is now up 100 pips though. :-(
Wednesday 20/6 (5 pm)
It has been a rather quiet Asian session. The A/U has moved in a 25 pip range. The indices have barely moved either and both are currently tucked away, seemingly hiding under their respective monthly pivots until after the FOMC and announcement. There is the added variable of G20 news releases as well. I'm not trading through this potentially very volatile and unpredictable period. I'm going to wait to see the outcome of both major events before even considering new positions.
Wednesday 20/6 (12.30pm)
The indices are trading with little direction during this Asian session.
The broader markets also gave good trading opportunities and TS trend signals on the shorter time frame charts last night. The S&P500 gave 120 pips and the DOW gave 100 pips. The beauty of these indices is that they can be played using a number of different investment vehicles; CFDs on Go Markets MT4 (charts shown below), on the Futures front (using E-minis) and with Options by either buying or selling Calls or Puts on the SPY or DIA:
Wednesday 20/6 (10.30 am)
Volatility continues with press releases from the G20 meetings. These are hard times to trade from the 4 hr charts. Yet again, the shorter time frame charts provided trading opportunities overnight during the later London and US session. There were easy pips to be made on both the E/U and A/U. I mentioned yesterday afternoon that this would probably be the case.
Wednesday 20/6 (7am)
Markets rallied overnight, not because of strength in the economy but, for just the opposite. It is hoped that there will be further stimulus by the US FED thereby devaluing the USD which has the effect then of pushing up the Euro and stocks etc. The USD rose and the EURX fell as a result:
The frustration for me is that the G/U and A/J trades that I closed yesterday are now both up around 40 pips each. Also, the A/U trade I let pass is now up over 200 pips!
The difficulty now is that the Fed meet later today and this could produce wild swings during my overnight. I have a lot of new 'risk on' signals though.
Tuesday 19/6 (7.30pm)
Weird! I'm with Gerry here! From http://www.forexlive.com/
Crap ZEW data……..no problemo
Written by Gerry Davies June 19, 2012 at 09:13 GMT
EUR/USD has spiked back above 1.2600 again amid further reports of strong middle eastern buying.
Logic?
If you want logical moves go trade something else. This is forex
Tuesday 19/6 (5.40pm)
I'm beginning to think that I should just trade the A/U. The trade I let pass last week is still going and is now up over 160 pips. Low stress, low risk and low maintenance!
You really only need one 'Black Caviar'. She is racing at Ascot this week.
Tuesday 19/6 (4pm)
The indices are still loitering near their trend line break areas:
My two trades were going nowhere so I have closed them: A/J for a few pips up and G/U for 15 down.
I don't have any TS signals on the 4 hr charts which is hardly surprising given the volatility and indecision that is around. This is a period for playing trend off shorter time frames during the London or US sessions and, that's not for me due to Geography.
Tuesday 19/6 (7am)
Risk on faded in overnight trade. The broader markets were choppy and finished mixed as did many of the currency pairs. The USDX has drifted up to near its upper wedge breakout level and the EURX is hovering just above its lower wedge breakdown level:
Interestingly, the currency pairs though haven't all raced to join in on this 'risk off' approach, well, just yet at least. I actually don't have any TS signals, 'risk on' or 'risk off', for the moment!
My two 'risk on' trades from yesterday aren't too good but at least I'm not stopped out, for the moment anyway. The A/J is actually up a little bit but the G/U is down, although it is hanging in there around the weekly and monthly pivots. These TS signals faded though and, yet again, I'm a bit amazed by my own stupidity. These signals formed after big market gaps. Hmmm. Didn't I say I wouldn't trade signals following market gaps after getting caught like this a few weeks ago? I think so! Also, it gets worse, these new signals were against the major trend.
I had warned that trying to trade technically during this minefield week would be difficult if not impossible. I should have stayed out until the dust settled from this. I'd like to think 'you live and you learn' BUT...I don't seem to learn from my mistakes at all!
Monday 18/6 (5.45pm)
The indices are having the same struggle/issues that they did earlier today. See charts below in previous post.
I know the Euro problems are far from solved and that there is really little justification for 'risk on' sentiment BUT the broader markets are displaying some technically rather bullish signs. There are bullish 'Inverted Head & Shoulder' patterns almost everywhere, on nearly every country stock index. It will be interesting to see how these evolve though. Some are shown below:
Monday 18/6 (1.30pm)
We are still seeing a 'risk on' sentiment across the broader and currency markets.
The USDX has held below the 81.7, monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA. The EURX has held above the 100.5 S/R level and monthly pivot. It is struggling to get up over the 4hr 200 EMA though:
I've had new TS signals to LONG on the G/U and A/J and I have taken these, as per the criteria given in my w/e update:
I missed signals late last week on the A/U, now up 140 pips, and the USD/SGD, now up 80 pips, but I won't chase these trades.
No comments:
Post a Comment