Trade Week Analysis 09/06/12

Note: I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 09/06/12; My Indices Analysis and my Trading Week Analysis.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

Last week: last week was another FANTASTIC week for trend trading. I flagged 8 trades during the week and all of them combined netted over 1200 pips:  The E/U: 120, E/J 170, A/U 120, A/J 200, The Swissie: 80, the Cable: 190, the Loonie: 110 and the NZD/USD:130. I caught the G/U but was stopped out at entry from the A/U that then went on for 200 pips! Clearly, I still have trade management issues.

This week: There are a number of ‘risk off’ patterns on the charts in the form of Bull and Bear Flag patterns but I will be cautious due to the bias towards ‘risk on’ and positive sentiment.

E/U: The bullish inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart is still valid BUT there is also a normal Head and Shoulder pattern on the weekly chart too. Price has re-tested the break out level from the broken neckline on the weekly chart. The daily chart also looks like it is showing a bearish ‘bear flag’ pattern.

I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bear flag pattern and weekly pivot level.  

I will look to LONG the E/U if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and it price breaks back above the 1.25 level and monthly pivot. This is also the upper limit of the bear flag pattern. Caution will be needed here though as the 4hr 200 EMA is just above this level.

E/J: The E/J looks to be forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart too.

I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal, a return to ‘risk on’ and if price rallies, breaks, closes and holds above the bear flag pattern and 4 hr 200 EMA. 

I MIGHT be tempted to SHORT the E/J if ‘risk off’ persists and on a break, close and hold below the bear flag pattern. 

A/U: The A/U looks to be trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. It is looking more bullish of late.

I will look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains.

I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price can break, close and hold above the monthly pivot, 4hr 200 EMA and psychological 1.00 level.

A/J: The A/J bounced off the bottom triangle trend line this week to give a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly chart. Note Friday’s Doji!

I will look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ prevails and on a break, close and hold above the 4hr 200 EMA.

I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, close and holds below the bottom triangle trend line.

G/U: Price is still trading within an ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The Cable might also be forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart too.

I would look to LONG the G/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and price breaks, closes and holds above the 1.56 level.

I would look to SHORT the G/U on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains and if price breaks closes and holds below the bottom triangle trend line.

USD/SGD: This pair is now trading within a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. A Bull Flag seems to be forming on the daily chart here too. They’re everywhere of late!

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the Bull Flag pattern.      

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns and if price breaks, closes and holds out up from the Bull Flag pattern and weekly pivot. 

Swissie USD/CHF: This pair also looks to be forming a Bull Flag pattern on the daily chart!

I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds out of the Bull Flag pattern.  

I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the Bull Flag pattern, monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA. 

Loonie:  USD/CAD: Ummm...yet another potential Bull Flag pattern????

I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds out of the Bull Flag pattern and above the weekly pivot.  

I will look to SHORT the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the Bull Flag pattern, monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA. 

Silver: The triangle trend line is giving Silver some grief but is still holding price on the weekly chart.

Gold: I’ve got Gold trading within a descending wedge pattern on the weekly chart. These are bearish continuation patterns.