Friday Summary
This has been another fantastic week for trend trading and for TradeSpotting. TradeSpotting signals, delivered a possible 1210 pips this week!
Take a look at the charts below to see the trades that were spotted, here in my blog, during this week. PS: Note how the 200 EMAs would have made easy profit targets here on many of the pairs!
A/U:120 pips
A/J:200 pips
G/U:190 pips
USD/SGD: 90 pips
Loonie: 110 pips
NZD/USD: 130 pips
E/U: 120 pips
E/J: 170 pips
Swissie: 80 pips.
NB: the last 3, E/U, E/J and Swissie, came through whilst I slept but had actually given signals earlier in the week too which, if I'd followed them then, would have yielded even more pips!
I managed to catch much of the G/U but poor trade management, yet again, got me stopped out of the A/U. I'm not able to take all of these trades due to risk management control as, essentially, they are all correlated as 'risk on' trades.
I will, as I mentioned earlier, now wait until next week for further trades. I want to see if the necklines on the USDX and EURX indices H & S patterns will be broken or not. It may take until next week for that situation to become clear. Comments from Ben Bernanke overnight seemed to dash hopes of further QE and this may see the USD move back to rally mode. Gold has fallen quite dramatically on this fear already and seems to be taking the Aussie pairs with it.
Friday 8/6 (5.30am)
Mixed news out overnight has seen some choppy action with the indices. The H & S patterns on both are still in contention though:
My G/U trade missed it's 200 pip profit target by a few pips. It had pulled back a bit so, given the w/e is looming, I have closed it for about 130 pips.
I am going to wait until next week now for new trades. I don't want to leave trades open over the w/e given the current volatility.
Thursday 7/6 (4 pm)
Not a whole lot has changed since my am post. The indices have paused a bit though. Now, I tend to see lots of patterns/trends etc, it's an occupational hazard with my previous Science life but, I do believe that I see a Head and Shoulder pattern forming on the USDX. H & S patterns are bearish patterns. The EURX, conversely, looks like it's forming an inverted H & S pattern, a bullish pattern. The neck line for the EURX pattern happens to be the previous strong S/R level of 100.5. It will be interesting to see if these plays out as they would favour / support continued 'risk on'.
Now, I can't see any logical reason for the Euro to rally but, I'll trade what I see. I'm still keen on the E/J trade, as per my 7 am post this morning. Check there for it.
This came to my e-mail. It's on 'risk on' and is worth watching: http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/60612/60612.html
Thursday 7/6 (7am)
Risk on continued overnight amid hopes that 'central banks around the world will implement further measures to support the global economy' (Quote from CNBC).
The USDX and EURX finally broke, close and held outside their respective trend lines:
The many signals I had from yesterday have moved amazingly well:
A/U: 90 pips
A/J: 120 pips
G/U: 80 pips
USD/SGD: 55 pips
Loonie: 60 pips
NZD/USD: 80 pips
Fantastic for TradeSpotting! Not bad for one day!
The above 6 signals all kicked in together yesterday. Some of these pairs gave signals, in staggered procession though, earlier in the week. Also, the E/U, E/J and Swissie gave signals earlier too. Interestingly, if I had of taken those earlier signals with my usual stop size my results would be:
A/U now up 160
A/J now up 190
E/U up 90
E/J up 200!!!!!
Swissie: up 70
Anyway, moving on to the present......new signals kicked in on the Swissie, E/U and E/J overnight too which I slept through:
The E/U is approaching major resistance though in the 1.262 level, monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA.
The Swissie is similar to the E/U with its road blocks:
The E/J has resistance in the monthly pivot with the 4 hr 200EMA some way off. This is my preferred next trade now from these 3, once it clears the monthly pivot though!
TradeSpotting had a great day yesterday, and, in fact, has had all week! Mine was just ok though! I took the A/U and G/U. I tightened my stops to entry before heading off for the night. The A/U was narrowly stopped out and then went for 100 pips. The G/U is still going. WHEN WILL I LEARN NOT TO TIGHTEN MY STOPS TOO SOON??? This is a RECURRING problem for me with trade management!
I'm out for most of today.
Wednesday 6/6 (6 pm)
The indices are currently trying to break through their trend lines but it is a while until the 4hr candle close on them.
I still have signals on the A/J, G/U, USD/SGD, NZD/USD and Loonie. I left off the A/U too from this list earlier in my 3pm post.
The E/U, E/J and Swissie are trying to form up still too.
There is red flag news out tonight so caution needed.
Wednesday 6/6 (4 pm)
The indices have still yet to break their trend lines. There is one hour until the close on my indices charts with Admiral markets. My currency charts have just had a candle close and the same signals still are in play. No new signals yet to add to these. There is GBP news out later which they may all be waiting for.
Wednesday 6/6 (3 pm)
There is renewed 'risk on' sentiment evident today. Some good AUD and NZD data, as well as some Chinese whispers, have fueled this trading thus far. The indices trend lines are once again under threat.
It looks as though most of the pairs are lining up for 'risk on' trading too. I have already had very new and early signals starting on the A/J, G/U, USD/SGD, NZD/USD and Loonie. There is another hour to candle close here though so the signals are not fully formed and finalised yet. The others look like they're forming up soon too.
Wednesday 6/6 (12 noon)
Talk of Chinese stimulus measure has sent the A/U, A/J and USD/SGD moving fast. I'm not chasing these after such big moves. I'll try and catch others if they follow suit. The indices have yet to break, close and hold outside of their new trend lines.
Wednesday 6/6 (7.30am)
This sideways action (noted on the indices in my 7am post below) is helping the currencies to set up for better opportunities to identify any new trends. I've adjusted the trend lines on the 4 hr charts, ever so slightly, on some of the pairs to better reflect the latest S/R. Many of the pairs are hovering near trend lines which should make it easier to spot new trends if they do move that way. Either way, I'm looking for new TS signals to kick in of a majority of the pairs together. As mentioned yesterday, I'm finding that this correlation gives the best trading results.
E/U:
E/J:
A/U:
A/J:
G/U:
USD/SGD:
Swissie:
Loonie:
NZD/USD:
Wednesday 6/6 (7am)
It seems that I'm not the only confused FX trader around. The indices have meandered sideways since thinking yesterday that they wanted to go for a trend line break:
The broader stock markets were up a bit on the result of some good US data but this was tempered by ongoing concern about the Euro zone.
Not surprisingly therefore, there are no new trend signals on the pairs. You would be rather greedy seeking more big moves just now anyway after the massive moves from last week.
Tuesday 5/6 (9.45 pm)
The indices are still loitering around their respective weekly pivots but they're both looking more keen to trade 'risk off' at the moment.
The G7 conference call has not produced any triggers to price as yet.
I don't have any new TS signals across the pairs.
Tuesday 5/6 (7.45 pm)
This late reversal on the indices has meant that it will be a while before new trend signals will evolve on the major pairs. Both indices are hanging/hiding near their weekly pivot levels.
There is a G7 phone call meeting in 1 hr which might cause some movement.
Tuesday 5/6 (5.45 pm)
The indices have indeed bounced back to 'risk off'. I have adjusted the trend lines, ever so slightly, to reflect these new S/R levels:
My hesitation due to a lack of uniformity amongst the currencies was valid.
Interestingly, the E/U pull back was to the neckline of the H&S pattern noted in my w/e update. This pair did actually give 100 pips from the initial TS signal though. The E/J and Swissie also gave up to 60 pips before reversing.
I'm hoping that we are not returning to ranging markets again though as these are best played from trading off bounces or off smaller time frames, neither of which suit me.
I'll be on the lookout for new TS signals now.
Tuesday 5/6 (4 pm)
I've now got signals on the A/U and A/J as well as on the E/U, E/J and Swissie.
The indices are re-testing the trend line breaks. I'm still unsure about the sentiment here given that we don't have uniformity across all of the pairs. Hmmmm.
Tuesday 5/6 (3 pm)
Both indices have had a break, close and hold outside of their trend lines. They may continue with this 'risk on' movement but it would be more out of boredom with the previous trend than based on any good news or data! They could just as easily reverse from here too but I do have TS signals on both of them. Any continued 'risk on' movement is fraught with barriers though for both of them with 4 hr 200 EMAs and monthly pivots in both their paths.
I still only have TS signals on the E/J, E/U and Swissie for the moment. The A/U, A/J, Loonie and USD/SGD are very close to forming though which is encouraging. The G/U is a way off which isn't surprising given that it is another public holiday in the UK today.
Tuesday 5/6 (10 am)
The indices look like they are keen for some 'risk on' sentiment trading today.
My earlier TS signals to LONG the E/U and E/J have followed through. Both pairs are now trading up about 40 ~ 50 pips. I also now have a TS signal to short the Swissie. Signals are starting to form up now too on the A/U, A/J, G/U and USD/SGD but I'd wait for the Aussie pairs until after the interest rate announcement later today before trading them.
Tuesday 5/6 (7am)
The USDX has pulled back a bit further in overnight trade to be hovering near the current daily bull trend line and the significant 61.8% fib retrace level:
The EURX has also pulled back and is butting up against the daily bear trend line:
This movement has brought new trend TS signals to LONG on the E/U and E/J. I am not taking these just yet though for two reasons:
1. I want to see the indices break through these trend lines with more conviction so as to be convinced of any 'risk on' sentiment returning. The indices are currently sitting at hugely significant levels and could as easily bounce back down from here as continue on.
2. I want to see more of the pairs produce 'risk on' trend signals. I have found that the best signals, producing the best results, come through when a majority of pairs all trend together.
Monday 4/6 (7.30pm)
The USDX seems to be pulling back a bit as discussed earlier.
I don't have any new signals just yet and they seem a bit of a way off anyway, except for the Swissie which, if things continue this way with some 'risk on' sentiment, could kick in whilst I sleep.
PS...make that the USD/SGD too...along with the Swissie....
Monday 4/6 (5pm)
I realised that I forgot to update about the NZD/USD in my Trade Week Analysis. I did mention this pair last week and that I would be watching the 75 level for some reaction. The 75 level is just below the weekly 200 EMA and, also, the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle dating back at least 12 months.
Monday 4/6 (4pm)
It is still rather quiet and will probably remain so for a while given that the London markets are closed for today and tomorrow. There is no 'red flag' US news scheduled either so, the old saying, 'no news is good news' just might carry through to the currency and broader markets. We'll see!
Monday 4/6 (2pm)
The USDX is taking a bit of a pause at the moment.
A pullback might come through out of the hope of some further stimulus. There doesn't seem to be any good news on the horizon that could ignite legitimate confidence though.
Monday 4/6 (12 noon)
This has been another fantastic week for trend trading and for TradeSpotting. TradeSpotting signals, delivered a possible 1210 pips this week!
Take a look at the charts below to see the trades that were spotted, here in my blog, during this week. PS: Note how the 200 EMAs would have made easy profit targets here on many of the pairs!
A/U:120 pips
A/J:200 pips
G/U:190 pips
USD/SGD: 90 pips
Loonie: 110 pips
NZD/USD: 130 pips
E/U: 120 pips
E/J: 170 pips
Swissie: 80 pips.
NB: the last 3, E/U, E/J and Swissie, came through whilst I slept but had actually given signals earlier in the week too which, if I'd followed them then, would have yielded even more pips!
I managed to catch much of the G/U but poor trade management, yet again, got me stopped out of the A/U. I'm not able to take all of these trades due to risk management control as, essentially, they are all correlated as 'risk on' trades.
I will, as I mentioned earlier, now wait until next week for further trades. I want to see if the necklines on the USDX and EURX indices H & S patterns will be broken or not. It may take until next week for that situation to become clear. Comments from Ben Bernanke overnight seemed to dash hopes of further QE and this may see the USD move back to rally mode. Gold has fallen quite dramatically on this fear already and seems to be taking the Aussie pairs with it.
Friday 8/6 (5.30am)
Mixed news out overnight has seen some choppy action with the indices. The H & S patterns on both are still in contention though:
My G/U trade missed it's 200 pip profit target by a few pips. It had pulled back a bit so, given the w/e is looming, I have closed it for about 130 pips.
I am going to wait until next week now for new trades. I don't want to leave trades open over the w/e given the current volatility.
Thursday 7/6 (4 pm)
Not a whole lot has changed since my am post. The indices have paused a bit though. Now, I tend to see lots of patterns/trends etc, it's an occupational hazard with my previous Science life but, I do believe that I see a Head and Shoulder pattern forming on the USDX. H & S patterns are bearish patterns. The EURX, conversely, looks like it's forming an inverted H & S pattern, a bullish pattern. The neck line for the EURX pattern happens to be the previous strong S/R level of 100.5. It will be interesting to see if these plays out as they would favour / support continued 'risk on'.
Now, I can't see any logical reason for the Euro to rally but, I'll trade what I see. I'm still keen on the E/J trade, as per my 7 am post this morning. Check there for it.
This came to my e-mail. It's on 'risk on' and is worth watching: http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/60612/60612.html
Thursday 7/6 (7am)
Risk on continued overnight amid hopes that 'central banks around the world will implement further measures to support the global economy' (Quote from CNBC).
The USDX and EURX finally broke, close and held outside their respective trend lines:
The many signals I had from yesterday have moved amazingly well:
A/U: 90 pips
A/J: 120 pips
G/U: 80 pips
USD/SGD: 55 pips
Loonie: 60 pips
NZD/USD: 80 pips
Fantastic for TradeSpotting! Not bad for one day!
The above 6 signals all kicked in together yesterday. Some of these pairs gave signals, in staggered procession though, earlier in the week. Also, the E/U, E/J and Swissie gave signals earlier too. Interestingly, if I had of taken those earlier signals with my usual stop size my results would be:
A/U now up 160
A/J now up 190
E/U up 90
E/J up 200!!!!!
Swissie: up 70
Anyway, moving on to the present......new signals kicked in on the Swissie, E/U and E/J overnight too which I slept through:
The E/U is approaching major resistance though in the 1.262 level, monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA.
The Swissie is similar to the E/U with its road blocks:
The E/J has resistance in the monthly pivot with the 4 hr 200EMA some way off. This is my preferred next trade now from these 3, once it clears the monthly pivot though!
TradeSpotting had a great day yesterday, and, in fact, has had all week! Mine was just ok though! I took the A/U and G/U. I tightened my stops to entry before heading off for the night. The A/U was narrowly stopped out and then went for 100 pips. The G/U is still going. WHEN WILL I LEARN NOT TO TIGHTEN MY STOPS TOO SOON??? This is a RECURRING problem for me with trade management!
I'm out for most of today.
Wednesday 6/6 (6 pm)
The indices are currently trying to break through their trend lines but it is a while until the 4hr candle close on them.
I still have signals on the A/J, G/U, USD/SGD, NZD/USD and Loonie. I left off the A/U too from this list earlier in my 3pm post.
The E/U, E/J and Swissie are trying to form up still too.
There is red flag news out tonight so caution needed.
Wednesday 6/6 (4 pm)
The indices have still yet to break their trend lines. There is one hour until the close on my indices charts with Admiral markets. My currency charts have just had a candle close and the same signals still are in play. No new signals yet to add to these. There is GBP news out later which they may all be waiting for.
Wednesday 6/6 (3 pm)
There is renewed 'risk on' sentiment evident today. Some good AUD and NZD data, as well as some Chinese whispers, have fueled this trading thus far. The indices trend lines are once again under threat.
It looks as though most of the pairs are lining up for 'risk on' trading too. I have already had very new and early signals starting on the A/J, G/U, USD/SGD, NZD/USD and Loonie. There is another hour to candle close here though so the signals are not fully formed and finalised yet. The others look like they're forming up soon too.
Wednesday 6/6 (12 noon)
Talk of Chinese stimulus measure has sent the A/U, A/J and USD/SGD moving fast. I'm not chasing these after such big moves. I'll try and catch others if they follow suit. The indices have yet to break, close and hold outside of their new trend lines.
Wednesday 6/6 (7.30am)
This sideways action (noted on the indices in my 7am post below) is helping the currencies to set up for better opportunities to identify any new trends. I've adjusted the trend lines on the 4 hr charts, ever so slightly, on some of the pairs to better reflect the latest S/R. Many of the pairs are hovering near trend lines which should make it easier to spot new trends if they do move that way. Either way, I'm looking for new TS signals to kick in of a majority of the pairs together. As mentioned yesterday, I'm finding that this correlation gives the best trading results.
E/U:
Wednesday 6/6 (7am)
It seems that I'm not the only confused FX trader around. The indices have meandered sideways since thinking yesterday that they wanted to go for a trend line break:
The broader stock markets were up a bit on the result of some good US data but this was tempered by ongoing concern about the Euro zone.
Not surprisingly therefore, there are no new trend signals on the pairs. You would be rather greedy seeking more big moves just now anyway after the massive moves from last week.
Tuesday 5/6 (9.45 pm)
The indices are still loitering around their respective weekly pivots but they're both looking more keen to trade 'risk off' at the moment.
The G7 conference call has not produced any triggers to price as yet.
I don't have any new TS signals across the pairs.
Tuesday 5/6 (7.45 pm)
This late reversal on the indices has meant that it will be a while before new trend signals will evolve on the major pairs. Both indices are hanging/hiding near their weekly pivot levels.
There is a G7 phone call meeting in 1 hr which might cause some movement.
Tuesday 5/6 (5.45 pm)
The indices have indeed bounced back to 'risk off'. I have adjusted the trend lines, ever so slightly, to reflect these new S/R levels:
My hesitation due to a lack of uniformity amongst the currencies was valid.
Interestingly, the E/U pull back was to the neckline of the H&S pattern noted in my w/e update. This pair did actually give 100 pips from the initial TS signal though. The E/J and Swissie also gave up to 60 pips before reversing.
I'm hoping that we are not returning to ranging markets again though as these are best played from trading off bounces or off smaller time frames, neither of which suit me.
I'll be on the lookout for new TS signals now.
Tuesday 5/6 (4 pm)
I've now got signals on the A/U and A/J as well as on the E/U, E/J and Swissie.
The indices are re-testing the trend line breaks. I'm still unsure about the sentiment here given that we don't have uniformity across all of the pairs. Hmmmm.
Tuesday 5/6 (3 pm)
Both indices have had a break, close and hold outside of their trend lines. They may continue with this 'risk on' movement but it would be more out of boredom with the previous trend than based on any good news or data! They could just as easily reverse from here too but I do have TS signals on both of them. Any continued 'risk on' movement is fraught with barriers though for both of them with 4 hr 200 EMAs and monthly pivots in both their paths.
I still only have TS signals on the E/J, E/U and Swissie for the moment. The A/U, A/J, Loonie and USD/SGD are very close to forming though which is encouraging. The G/U is a way off which isn't surprising given that it is another public holiday in the UK today.
Tuesday 5/6 (10 am)
The indices look like they are keen for some 'risk on' sentiment trading today.
My earlier TS signals to LONG the E/U and E/J have followed through. Both pairs are now trading up about 40 ~ 50 pips. I also now have a TS signal to short the Swissie. Signals are starting to form up now too on the A/U, A/J, G/U and USD/SGD but I'd wait for the Aussie pairs until after the interest rate announcement later today before trading them.
Tuesday 5/6 (7am)
The USDX has pulled back a bit further in overnight trade to be hovering near the current daily bull trend line and the significant 61.8% fib retrace level:
This movement has brought new trend TS signals to LONG on the E/U and E/J. I am not taking these just yet though for two reasons:
1. I want to see the indices break through these trend lines with more conviction so as to be convinced of any 'risk on' sentiment returning. The indices are currently sitting at hugely significant levels and could as easily bounce back down from here as continue on.
2. I want to see more of the pairs produce 'risk on' trend signals. I have found that the best signals, producing the best results, come through when a majority of pairs all trend together.
Monday 4/6 (7.30pm)
The USDX seems to be pulling back a bit as discussed earlier.
I don't have any new signals just yet and they seem a bit of a way off anyway, except for the Swissie which, if things continue this way with some 'risk on' sentiment, could kick in whilst I sleep.
PS...make that the USD/SGD too...along with the Swissie....
Monday 4/6 (5pm)
I realised that I forgot to update about the NZD/USD in my Trade Week Analysis. I did mention this pair last week and that I would be watching the 75 level for some reaction. The 75 level is just below the weekly 200 EMA and, also, the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle dating back at least 12 months.
Monday 4/6 (4pm)
It is still rather quiet and will probably remain so for a while given that the London markets are closed for today and tomorrow. There is no 'red flag' US news scheduled either so, the old saying, 'no news is good news' just might carry through to the currency and broader markets. We'll see!
Monday 4/6 (2pm)
The USDX is taking a bit of a pause at the moment.
A pullback might come through out of the hope of some further stimulus. There doesn't seem to be any good news on the horizon that could ignite legitimate confidence though.
Monday 4/6 (12 noon)
The USDX opened up a little higher and the EURX a little lower but there hasn't been much momentum just yet.
Asian stocks are reportedly taking a bit of a beating following the poor US jobs data figure from Friday.
I don't have any new TS trend signals just yet. I have now had my first 4 hr candle close on the currencies for this week. Some signals from last week are still in play: on the E/J, A/U, A/J, G/U, USD/SGD and the Loonie. EMA weaving on the E/U and Swissie mean that there is potential for a new signal to evolve on them but, based on my other indicators, this doesn't look like happening all that soon.
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