I'm not sure whether any FX technical analysis will be valid in light of fundamental events over the next few days. My analysis for this week is rather similar to what I was looking for last week though.
E/U: The bullish inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart is still valid BUT there is also a normal Head and Shoulder pattern on the weekly chart too. Price has re-tested the break out level from the broken neckline on the weekly chart and has now closed above the neckline. The daily chart has a bearish ‘bear flag’ pattern currently in play.
I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the 1.262 level, bear flag pattern and weekly pivot level.
I will look to LONG the E/U if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and it price breaks above the monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA. This is also the upper limit of the bear flag pattern.
E/J: The E/J still looks to be forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart too.
I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal, a return to ‘risk on’ and if price rallies, breaks, closes and holds above the monthly pivot. The 4 hr 200 EMA is just above this level though as is the upper boundary of the bear flag pattern.
I MIGHT be tempted to SHORT the E/J if ‘risk off’ persists and on a break, close and hold below the bear flag pattern and weekly pivot.
A/U: The A/U looks to be trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. It is looking more bullish of late. I let a LONG signal on this pair go late last week. The trade is already up 100 pips.
I will look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and there is a break close and hold below the daily/4hr bull trend line.
I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ persists on this pair.
A/J: The AJ is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart.
I will look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ prevails and on a break, close and hold above the 4hr 200 EMA and 80 level.
I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, close and holds below the monthly and weekly pivot.
G/U: Price is still trading within an ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. I was looking to LONG on a break above the 1.56 level and a new TS signal but I missed this last Friday.
I would look to LONG the G/U on THE new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and price holds above the 1.57, monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA level.
I would look to SHORT the G/U on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains and if price breaks closes and holds below the bottom triangle trend line.
USD/SGD: This pair is now trading within a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. A Bull Flag still seems to be forming on the daily chart here too.
I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and if price holds below the 1.27 level.
I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns and if price breaks, closes and holds out up from the Bull Flag pattern and weekly pivot.
Swissie USD/CHF: This pair is forming a Bull Flag pattern on the daily chart.
I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds out of the Bull Flag pattern.
I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA.
Loonie: USD/CAD: Another Bull Flag pattern.
I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds out of the Bull Flag pattern and above the weekly pivot.
I will look to SHORT the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA.
Silver: The triangle trend line is giving Silver some grief but is still holding price on the weekly chart.
Gold: I’ve got Gold trading within a descending wedge pattern on the weekly chart. These are bearish continuation patterns.
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