Last week was great for TS, yet again, but this time it was from the shorter time frame 30 min charts. There were 580 pips from the main pairs on just one night. I am finding during periods of indecision like this that shorter time frame trading, during the main London/US sessions is much more successful.
This week the charts seem to be screaming out ‘risk off’, as do the fundamentals; that is, to go Long on the USD and Short on the AUD, EUR, SGD etc. There is the ever present preponderance for the markets to swing with some form of optimism though and trade ‘risk on’, as we saw on Friday after all the bad news from Thursday. Trading is anything but methodical or logical at times like these so technical trading can prove to be challenging. Many of the charts have road blocks in the way of a return to ‘risk on’ trading sentiment though. Weekend news releases could swing trading sentiment either way at market open so, caution and flexibility are required.
E/U: There are lots of technical patterns with the E/U at the moment. The bullish inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart is still valid BUT there is also the bearish Head and Shoulder pattern on the weekly chart too, just to confuse matters! Price has re-tested the break out level from the broken neckline of the weekly chart and is currently still above the neckline. Price broke down from the bearish ‘bear flag’ pattern late last week. There are lots of road blocks above current price: the monthly and weekly pivot, the 4hr 200 EMA and the previous bear flag bottom trend line.
I will look to SHORT the E/U on the current TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the weekly chart H&S neck line.
I will look to LONG the E/U if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and it price breaks above the monthly/weekly pivot, 1.262 level and 4 hr 200 EMA.
E/J: The E/J still looks to be forming a bear flag pattern on the daily chart.
I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal and a return to ‘risk on’.
I MIGHT be tempted to SHORT the E/J if ‘risk off’ persists and on a break, close and hold below the bear flag pattern and weekly/monthly pivot.
A/U: The parity level is a major S/R level offering support to the A/U at the moment. The A/U should rally, from a fundamental perspective that is, but is pulled down with any ‘risk off’ sentiment though.
I will look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ returns and there is a break close and hold below the 4hr 200 EMA and parity.
I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ persists on this pair.
A/J: The AJ is trading within a symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart.
I will look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ prevails and on a break, close and hold above the Daily 200 EMA.
I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, close and holds below the 4hr 200 EMA.
G/U: Price is still trading within an ascending triangle pattern on the weekly chart.
I would look to LONG the G/U on THE new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and price holds above the monthly & weekly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA level.
I would look to SHORT the G/U on the current TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains and if price holds below the 1.56 S/R level.
USD/SGD: This pair is still trading within a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. The Bull Flag was broken late last week.
I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the strong S/R level of 1.27.
I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns.
Swissie USD/CHF: This pair has broken out of the Bull Flag pattern on the daily chart.
I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on the current TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains.
I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the monthly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA.
Loonie: USD/CAD: Price has broken out from a Bull Flag pattern.
I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.
I will look to SHORT the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the weekly pivot, previous trend line and 4 hr 200 EMA.
Silver: Price has finally broken down through the bottom triangle trend line on the weekly chart.
Gold: I’ve got Gold trading within a descending wedge pattern on the weekly chart. These are bearish continuation patterns. Price is currently heading to re-test the bottom trend line again.
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