Trade Week Analysis for 04/02/12

Trading Week Analysis 04/06/2012

Note: I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 02/06/12; my Indices Analysis and my Trade Week Analysis.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

Last week: Last week was a FANTASTIC week for TradeSpotting trend trading. I flagged 6 trades during the week and, all of them combined, netted a possible and AMAZING 1420 pips!:  The E/U: 200, E/J 300+, A/U 200+, A/J 270+, G/U 300+ and The Swissie: 150 +. The USD/SGD, a late starter and favourite of mine, netted over 150+ pips too. (Charts below.)  I caught a bit of this action but not nearly enough. I still have trade management issues.

E/U: Price has broken numerous support levels. The bullish inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart is still valid BUT there is also a normal Head and Shoulder pattern on the weekly chart too. Talk about mixed signals!

I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ remains and if price holds below the 1.25 level.

I will look to LONG the E/U if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and it price breaks back above the 1.25 level. Caution will be needed here though as barriers, by way of the weekly and monthly pivot, are just above this level and near the previous S/R level of 1.262.

E/J: I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal, a return to ‘risk on’ and if price rallies, breaks, closes and holds above the bear trend line on the 4 hr chart. Caution will be required here too as the weekly and monthly pivot are just above the bear trend line.

A/U: I will look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains.

I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.

A/J: I will look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal and a break, close and hold above the bear trend line and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns. 

I won’t SHORT the A/J.

G/U: Price broke down from the significant trend line at the 1.56 level to yield up to 300 + pips this week. Price is still trading within an ascending triangle pattern and bounced off the bottom trend line of this triangle on Friday.

I would look to LONG the G/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and price holds above the bottom triangle trend line.

I would look to SHORT the G/U on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains and if price breaks closes and holds below the bottom triangle trend line.

USD/SGD: This pair has moved up to 440 pips since the initial triangle break out I flagged a few weeks ago!

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bull trend line.  

    

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains. 

Swissie: This pair has moved up to 450 pips since the initial ascending triangle break out I flagged a few weeks ago as well!

I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains.  

I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bull triangle trend line. 

Loonie:  This pair has moved up to 370 pips since the initial symmetrical triangle break out I flagged a few weeks ago too! Price has now stalled at the weekly 200 EMA.

I would look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains. 

I would look to SHORT the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bull triangle trend line. 

Silver: The triangle trend line is giving Silver some grief but is still holding price on the weekly chart.

Gold: I’ve got Gold trading within a descending wedge pattern on the weekly chart. These are bearish continuation patterns. Gold rallied strongly off the bottom level of this pattern on Friday though due to thoughts of further possible stimulus measures and QE3.  I’m watching Gold though closely as it is quite highly correlated with the AUD.