Monday, November 21, 2011

Trading week 21/11/11

Thursday 24/11/11 (7pm)
My short E/U was eventually stopped out for 120 pips. So, the final profit for this week is 220 pips!

Markets will be a bit thin for the rest of the week due to Thanksgiving and, as I have already said, I will not be taking anymore trades this week. I have limited internet for the next few days as well so I may not update again until the weekend.

Thursday 24/11/11 (6am)
My E/U trade continues to fall, harvesting more pips. I've locked in another 120 pips on my second lot. The trade is currently up 140 pips though! My stop is in place and I'll leave it there for now. So, so far this week, 220 pips locked in!

The USDX and EURX have finally got some momentum. As I write, the USDX is trying to break up and out of the upper trend line on a symmetrical triangle. The EURX has broken the bottom trend line of the smaller symmetrical triangle pattern that it was trading within. (see charts).

My internet will be disrupted a bit over the next few days so there may not be as many updates. I will not be taking any further trades this week though anyway given that it is the Thanksgiving long week end and volumes are usually a bit lower. I will just be managing my current short E/U trade.

I have had other TS signals though: short E/J, long USD/SGD and, almost a signal on long USD/CHF but I won't take any further trades. These are pretty well all correlated trades anyway.

Wednesday 23/11/11 (9pm)
The short E/U struggled for a while but finally broke through the trend line. I locked in 90 pips and my stop is moved to b/e on the remainder. It's Thanksgiving w/e looming so I was keen to move to b/e as soon as possible.

A fantastic week for TradeSpotting. Just 2 trades but, so far, a total of 190 pips!

Wednesday 23/11/11 (5pm)
There has been poor data out of China today which has caused a sell off on the AUD and a bit of a 'risk off' reaction; seeing the USDX climb and the EURX fall, albeit only slightly. I have had a signal to short the E/U. BUT...price is still sitting just above a daily trend line and above the strong psychological level of 1.34 so...this trade might be a bit problematic. Time will tell.

Wednesday 23/11/11 (6am)
It has been a rather flat night as far as most FX pairs went. The indices are still trading sideways. The USDX is still around 78 and the EURX around 106. (see charts). You may get sick of me going on about this BUT analysis of these pairs keeps oneout of bad trades as much as it can then help get you into good trades.

I had been watching both the E/J and USD/CHF for breakouts last night. Both were heading for trend line breaks and, also, looked like they were lining up for TS signals. We did get the trend line break BUT there was no full and valid TS signal thus, I did not take these trades. On waking this morning I see that both of these pairs have simply traded sideways. Thus, my TS system helped to keep me out of potentially losing trades. (see chart of the Swissie below). TS works on identifying strong market momentum moves which were clearly absent on these pairs last night.

I will keep an eye on the pairs every 4 hr candle and write more when something develops. Please note that you may need to click on the chart images a few times to enlarge them.

Tuesday 22/11/11 (pm)
No new signals as of tonight. I thought some might kick in on this 9pm candle close. For example, a USD/CHF short looked like setting up and an E/J long. The USDX and EURX are still, at this stage, bouncing around. The USDX is still around 78 and the EURX at around 106. We need a clear move away from these levels to start new trends.

Tuesday 22/11/11 (6am)

The TS signals from last night delivered a bounty of pips! I only took the short A/U and it has now closed out for 100 pips, just narrowly missing my profit target of 150!

The short A/J would have made you 100 pips, the short G/U 80+, the short G/J 60+ and the long USD/CAD a possible 60+ as well. So, another fantastic record for the TradeSpotting system!

It was an interesting FX night though indeed. Often when one 'risk off' trade fires (that is long USD), they all do. This was not the case last night though. For example, the E/U, E/J and USD/CHF pairs pretty much just bumped around. This action reflects much of what the indices, USDX and EURX, did though. The USDX is still around the 78 level and the EURX around the 106 level. (see charts). The beauty of my TS system is that it detects these strong market momentum moves.

The big fall for the poor Aussie dollar seems to be connected to the big fall in gold overnight. These pairs are highly correlated.

Monday 21/11/11 (9pm)
I preferred the A/U short to the A/J short due to the ever possible intervention on Yen pairs by the BOJ.

I've locked in 40 pips on the A/U short and have moved my stop to b/e on the other parcel. I'm not overly confident that this trend will progress given the slow pace of the indices.

The 9pm candle close has given new signals to short the G/J, G/U and to long the USD/CAD. These trades are fairly correlated with the short A/U though. In other words, they are 'risk off' trades.

Monday 21/11/11 (1pm)
I've had a signal after my 1pm candle close to short the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. The A/U also coincides with a trend line break. I am cautious though as the indices are still stuck in their narrow ranges and haven't declared their directions for this week. Please check my post on the indices to see what I'm looking for this week.

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