Monday, November 14, 2011

Trading week 14/11/11

Friday 18/11/11 (7am)
Well, the indices have swapped the 'Hokey Pokey' for some 'Pole Dancing'! They are both dancing around the daily pivots.

I'm done trading for the week. I'm keeping my 262 pips safe!

Thursday 17/11/11 (6pm)
Price has continued to bounce around a bit today and the USDX is still at the 78 level whilst the EURX is at the 106 level.

I tightened my stop on the short G/U and was stopped out at 122 pips. All of my trades are now closed and I will not open any further trades this week.

My results thus:
Short G/U: 122
Long U/CAD: 50
Long U/CHF: 90
Total: 262 pips!

Thursday 17/11/11 (6am)
You put your right foot in,
You put your right foot out;
You put your right foot in,
And you shake it all about.
You do the Hokey-Pokey,
And you turn yourself around.
That's what it's all about!

Now, if you thought that was 'The Hokey Pokey', think again! It's actually now called the 'risk on- risk off' dance that the FX market is doing! Yesterday's Asian session was 'risk off' with the USD rising and the EUR falling. Last night's US session though was a turn around though with 'risk on'! (see charts below). The USDX is currently back at the 78 level and the EURX is back at the 106 area. Creatures of habit!

I'm glad I locked in early profit on my trades yesterday afternoon given that the trend reversed. I keep saying this but, long term trend trading is difficult at the moment. I believe you need to lock in profits early and, then, cross your fingers and hope!

My remaining USD/CHF and USD/CAD trades were stopped out. The swissie at about 50 and the loonie at b/e. My short GBP/USD is still going though.

I doubt I will enter any more trades this week as I want to preserve my healthy profit, currently around 240 pips!

Wednesday 16/11/11 (5pm)

There has been a return to risk off during the Asian session with the USDX pushing higher and the EURX moving lower which has helped my trades.

I have locked in 50+ pips on the Long USD/CAD and 90 pips on the Long USD/CHF. I also took 100 pips on a short GBP/USD that was a weak TS signal but a trend line break as well. I have the other half of all of these trades still running with stops moved to b/e. I'm out for the night so that is why I closed and locked in some profit on the swissie and the loonie.

Total pips locked in = 240!

Wednesday 16/11/11 ( 6am)

It was a thin and choppy session overnight. The 'risk off' start to the night. with rising USD and falling EUR. fluctuated somewhat amid various news reports. Some reassuring news about the new Italian Prime Minister and a bit of good data out of the USA created some positive sentiment which resulted in some return to 'risk on' appetite. The USDX bounced down from previous resistance at the 78 level and the EURX is returning to the saftey of the 106 level as I write. (see charts).

The USD/CHF trade is still up but the USD/CAD is retesting the break of the 4 hr triangle trend line. I'm going to keep the loonie trade open for the time being though whilst it trades above the monthly pivot.

Like I keep saying, longer term trend trading is currently at the whim and mercy of a constant stream of fundamental news announcement.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (9pm)
The USDX and EURX have continued the moves out of their narrow trading ranges. This is giving me confidence now to look for opportunities to Long USD and Short EUR.

The only decent signals I have received though are the Long USD/CHF from earlier (currently up 40 pips) and a long on the USD/CAD. This isn't called the 'loonie' for nothing though! The USD/CAD trade represent a bullish break out from symmetrical triangle though too so is even further support for a long position. This, being FX, is no guarantee though. I'm discounting signals that Long the JPY due to the ever potential chance of BOJ intervention.

There has just been some mixed EUR news so it will be interesting to see how the market interprets these.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (5.30pm)
The USDX and EURX indices are attempting to break out of their trading ranges as I write. I've had a 5pm candle close here but there are still no clear or convincing TS trend signals just now. (There was a weak signal to Long the USD/CHF). I think this must be reflecting lower than usual volume perhaps. There is a lot of 'red flag' data due out overnight and maybe traders are waiting to see the impact of these announcements. I will continue to be patient though and wait for set ups on the 4 hr charts. I have posted an analysis showing how 30 min charts and TS yielded a lot of potential pips overnight though.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (10am)

Not much has changed since earlier this morning. THE USDX is still lingering around the upper trading range area of 77.5 and the EURX around the the 106 area. I feel that something big is brewing; that either a big move up or down is just around the corner. I want confirmation by way of moves on these indices before I have confidence with further 4 hr trend trades. There were TS trend trades around overnight that could be picked up on the shorter time frame 30 min charts that US session traders could have caught. I'll write these up in a post shortly.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (6am)

There has only been one, rather weak, TS signal overnight and that came through on the E/J. I am reluctant to short the E/J, which is essentially going long on the JPY, due to potential further Bank of Japan intervention. The same logic applies to any Yen pair.

There were some moves overnight but volumes were apparently low which probably explains the lack of coherent TS signals. My TS system catches strong market momentum moves and these aren't around at the moment. The EURX did eventually break out and down from the 106.5 area. The last 2 x 4hr candles have been indecision candles though and it has only moved down to the next support level of 106. The USDX has risen up to the upper resistance level of its trading range of 77.5 and is struggling at this level to escape any further as I write. (see charts).

I have learnt patience and discipline over recent weeks so I will wait until there is clearer direction on the indices and full signals on my TS system before trading.

Monday 14/11/11 9pm
I've just had a 4 hr candle close on my charts. There are no clear trade signals just yet though. The sentiment has been 'risk off' so far since the Asian session opened. The USDX has been increasing but is still range bound between 77.5-76.6. The EURX has fallen but is being supported by the 106.5 level as I write. This could all change overnight though but there is little scheduled news so price could just drift on sideways. Time will tell.

Please check my earlier Indices post to see what I'm looking for before taking any trades this week.

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