Monday, November 7, 2011

Trading week 7/11/11

Friday 11/11/11
Well, the news and market outlook hasn't improved much but price action has paused, reversed a bit and, now, seems to be drawing breathe before it decides what to do next. Will it keep tumbling or reverse? Who knows?

The pullback is to be expected after such big moves. Price had moved outside of the Bollinger bands and, more often than not, you will see a pause so that the Bollinger bands can catch up to regain price movement. The USDX has retraced and is currently back at the 77.5 level that, earlier in the week, we were looking for it break out from. The EURX is also back to its breakout level of 106/106.5. (See charts).

All of my trades are closed now. I had tightened my stops and they were stopped out. I'm not unhappy about this at all. I'm happy to lock in profit given the current market volatility.

My results for this week:
A/U short -100
E/U short -100
G/J short 100
E/J short 120
A/U short 120
N/U short 70
Total: 210

Yes...and I'm still cranky with myself for taking those first two losing trades..especially when I had gone against my own warnings and advice!

Thursday 10/11/11

I did end up taking the NZD/USD short this morning. I've locked in 75 pips and my stop is now at b/e on the rest.

The other trades are still running and currently at:
E/J: 120
A/U: 100
G/J: still 100

The following trades are the ones I missed due to time zone issues. It is worth noting their current pip status though:
E/U short: 175 pips
A/J short: 180 pips
G/U short: 85 pips
USD/SGD: 200 pips!

TradeSpotting works!

Thursday 10/11/11
Well that was a better night for me! Up 250 pips! TS works but I'm still getting used to riding this horse guys!

I waited last night until the EURX broke out of its narrow trading range and, then, shorted the signals I had received thus far. Both indices have now cleared their narrow trading ranges (see charts).

I've locked in the following pips with all 3 trades. They are still running and Stops have been moved to break even so, a free and stress free ride from now on:

E/J short 100
G/J short 100
A/U short 50

As expected, further signals kicked in last night whilst I was asleep. These included:
E/U short
A/J short
G/U short

Of these, the only extra trade that would tempt me would be the NZD/USD short as this pair has just also broken down below a bear trend line of a symmetrical triangle.

Essentially though, all of these trades are of the one type; RISK OFF as opposed to risk on. For that reason, I'm now narrowing my focus to just the most liquid of the pairs; it's easier and the spreads are less too!

BTW: I'm still sulking about making the stupid decision to take the earlier trades this week. My stupidity, or lack of discipline, cost me 200 pips! :-(

Wednesday 9/11/11 (9pm)
Increased Italian bond yield news has moved the markets. I have signals to short the G/J, A/U and E/J. I'm sure that more signals will trigger over night as well.

Wednesday 9/11//11 (6am)
The markets for FX continued to trades sideways overnight. The USDX and EURX are still bound in their narrow ranges meaning that there are no trades on offer just now. (see charts).

There has just been an announcement that the Italian Prime Minister, Berlusconi, will be resigning shortly and this is boosting the Euro and sending the USD down. We will need to see if this sentiment continues and I will be looking for 4 hr candle closes on the indices outside of their narrow trading ranges before taking any trend trades on the longer time frames (ie 4hr).

Tuesday 8/11/11 (5.30am)
Most pairs have continued to bounce around in a sideways movement overnight. It was a relatively light news session and there weren't any further bombshells out of the Euro zone to kick price along. The 4 hr and daily 200EMA did indeed hold up the price of the AUD last night.

I mentioned in my indices analysis for this week to wait until both the EURX and USDX broke out of their narrow trading ranges before taking further trades. These indices are both still range bound and, thus, trades should not have been taken. (see charts). The USDX needs to break clear of the 77.5-76.5 area and the EURX the 106.6-107.5 area.

I wish I'd followed my own advice. I shorted the A/U and E/U before heading off to bed! I should have waited for the sign of confirmation but that would have required waiting up into the wee hours. I'm not complaining but I do find, at times like these, trading from the Asian time zone can be problematic.

Monday 7/11/11 9pm
I have received signals to Short A/U, A/J and E/U and to Long USD/SGD. These trades are correlated though so caution is needed. The A/U also has some barriers in front of it with 4 hr and daily 200 EMA.

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