Trading week 28/11/11

Friday 2/12/11 (7am)

Last night was much more sedate on the FX front. There have been a number of spinning top candlestick patterns on the 4 hr charts for the indices and for some of the major FX pairs. Spinning tops represent indecision. (see charts). I have re-drawn some of the trend lines for the indices and will look at this more closely after the market closes for the week. I am not trading any further this week but, as always, I will be watching with interest and with thoughts ahead to potential set ups for next week.

Next week will be one filled with disruption for me. My son finishes school for the year and there are a number of celebrations to mark this period. Also, our family is going to Hawaii for a week and we leave next Friday 9th. This holiday is to celebrate coming to the end of 2011. I have had to battle cancer, surgery and chemotherapy since February of this year so, I will be very glad to see the end of this year! Thus, there will be the usual FX analysis throughout most of next week but not for the week beginning 12/12/11.

Thursday 1/12/11 (6.30am)

Well, it's a case of 'be careful what you wish for'! I was waiting for some movement on the indices and it certainly came through last night. The head and shoulder pattern on the USDX unfolded as a classic technical pattern. (see charts below this post).

There were huge moves on many of the pairs as some good data out of the US led to a huge 'risk on' rally. All whilst I was sound asleep! There may be some retracement following such large moves or, it may simply continue onwards. I will not be trading for the rest of this week now though as I wait for the dust from this stampede to settle.

My meager TS tally for this week has only been 104 pips. Great by many standards but disappointing for me as my TS signals delivered SO much more this week. My poor trade management skills have cost me lots of pips this week! I have looked at the pip tally for the TS signals that came through last Monday. They are recorded below. You will understand my frustration once you cast your eye over these figures.

Long:

A/J: moved 360, currently 300

A/U: moved 380, currently 350

E/J: moved 90, currently level

G/J: moved 160, currently 80

NZD/USD: moved, 120 now 90

Short

USD/CAD: moved 270, currently 190

G/A: moved 420, currently 300

USD/SGD: moved 200 currently 180

Wednesday 30/11/11 (9pm)

Both of the FX indices are still ranging and I wouldn't be surprised if this lasts until NFP out of the US on Friday. (see charts). The USDX is stuck at around the 79 level and the EURX at the 105 level.

You can see on both charts how the ADX is below the 20 level.. This confirms the lack of a clear trend. So, as a result, no new TS trades or signals just now.

Wednesday 30/11/11 (11.30am)

The indices still haven't moved from their previous levels. I'm still waiting for some indication of trend direction from them before taking further TS trades. The two pairs that look to be the most promising, once a trend kicks in, are the E/U and the USD/CHF. So, I will be checking up on these two pairs with each 4 hr candle close.

I'd like to point out here another pair that has just made it higher up onto my radar; the EUR/AUD. I have this pair on my platform at all times but have not paid it a lot of attention of late. It had been trading fairly flat for some time but has given given two fantastic TS trades over the last 3 weeks. (see chart below). The first TS trade was a long trend that yielded 250 pips and the second trade, a short trend trade starting last Friday, has yielded 400 pips and is still running! Entry and exit taken on the candle close with the vertical line running through it.

NB: you may need to click on chart a few times to make it enlarge for viewing.

BTW: I just got this free video from Compass FX sent to me by e-mail. In this short video, Dean Malone talks about the 'risk on' and 'risk off' trade concept. It also discusses correlation. Worth watching, even if just for the southern accent!

Video link: http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/112911/112911.html

Wednesday 30/11/11 (6.30am)

I have checked the results for the TS signals that were observed as of Monday. Their performances are listed below. You can see how the AUD pairs are stand out winners! Not bad!:

Long:

A/J: moved 170, currently 150

A/U: moved 160, currently 100

E/J: moved 50, currently level

G/J: moved 90, currently 80

NZD/USD: moved 120 now 90

Short

USD/CAD: moved 90, currently 50

G/A: moved 130, currently 70

USD/SGD: moved 60 currently 30

My poor trade management and, also, time zone issues, meant that I only caught one of these fish! Well, I shouldn't really complain I suppose, at least I caught something worth 100 pips.

Wednesday 30/11/11 (6am)

The markets seem to have had a bit of a choppy night with good news out of the US but concerns still from the Euro zone. The USD did try to fall but failed to close below the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern I pointed out. The USDX is still trading at the 79 level and the EURX at the 105 level. (see charts). It is Non Farm Payroll this week on Friday, a significant and often market moving news announcement. It may take some news such as this to kick the indices out of their comfort zones! I will continue to wait for a clearer sign of trend direction on the indices before placing any further trades.

There have been no new further TS signals. The ones from earlier in the week continue to tick along though. I am annoyed at myself for tightening my stop on my A/J trade. I got stopped out by just a few pips last night and the A/J has moved on up another 50 or so pips since that point! Trade management is the key issue that I'm struggling with in FX trading at the moment! The A/U and A/J have been very good TS trades.

Tuesday 29/11/11 (9pm)

Not a lot has happened since the last candle close. Both of the indices are back to hugging their weekly pivots. The USDX is stuck at the 79 level and the EURX at the 105.3 level. There is not much scheduled news for overnight so, it just may be that price continues to drifts sideways.

I will not take any further trades until there is a clearer indication of trend direction.

I have been stopped out ( by just a few pips) of my A/J long trade for 103 pips.

Tuesday 29/11/11 (5pm)

Well, the 'risk on' trend seems to be continuing with the EURX heading up and the USDX heading down. This is surprising given the negative news that came out during the Asian session! You can check this FX news at Forex Live (http://www.forexlive.com/). I use this site a lot! Anyway, as they say, 'trade what you see and not what you think'.

I think that there is an interesting technical pattern forming on the USDX known as a 'head and shoulder' pattern. (see chart below). Technical theory states that once the neck line is broken the possible fall is equal to the height from the neckline to the top of the head. For this H & S pattern though that is only about 90 + pips. It is intersting though that any neck line break would also be near a possible daily trend line break. So, a break, close and hold below this level, at around 78.50, would probably be quite significant.

Thus, I will be watching the USDX carefully over the coming hours. I would only look to take one more trade though as most are correlated at the moment anyway. They are either 'risk on' or 'risk off'. I'm looking mst closely at the E/U and the USD/CHF.

My second half of the A/J is still running but is risk free. It is up at around 140 pips and I've moved my stop to lock in 100 pips. It is butting up against the 4hr 200 EMA again though.

The other TS trades signaled last night have all kicked in too. I am finding though that the AUD pairs seem to be the easiest to trade at the moment.

NB: I'm not sure why but you need to click on the charts afew times before they enlarge for easier viewing.

Tuesday 29/11/11 (9am)

The last 4 hr candle on many of the pairs has been a doji style candle. This most probably reflects the indecision and uncertainty about the future trend direction for the USD that exists at the moment. The USDX is hugging the 79 level and the EURX the 105.3 level. These levels are around the weekly pivot points for both indices. I will not take any further trades until there is a clear break away from these levels for both of the indices.

My A/J trade is still limping along. The other signals from last night only moved between 20 ~ 50 pips or so and are currently ranging sideways as well.

It seems that the broader market is at a critical juncture at the moment and simply resting before it takes up on its next big move. It remains to be seen whether that move is a continuation of the recent Long USD 'risk off' sentiment or a reversal to the Short USD and 'risk on' approach, as we saw the start of yesterday. I believe that a lot of caution is needed trading FX at the moment.

Tuesday 29/11/11 (6.30am)

Last nights session, the US session was a bit more choppy than the Asian session. That's not surprising though given the big moves that happened during the Asian session on some pairs. The USDX and the EURX had both broken out past their weekly pivot points. As I write, they are bot re-testing these levels which also is not unusual. (see charts). Many of the pairs chopped around overnight as a result of the indices re-testing these pivot levels.

My A/J trade is still running but had been up 150 pips at one stage, all whilst I was asleep. Price retreated a bit when it reached the 4 hr 200 EMA.

I am going to wait until after the next candle close, 2 .5 hrs away, to see whether the indices continue reversing or return to the risk on approach of yesterday. I will then look to see if there are any valid signals to take.

Monday 28/11/11 (9.30 pm)

There were a few new signals after my 9pm candle close. These are all fairly correlated trades though with the 'risk on' sentiment.

I closed half of my A/J long for 90 pips. I've move the stop on the other half of the trade to lock in 50 pips and have let it keep going. The USDX has currently broken down below my target of 79 and the EURX has currently broken up just above the 105.5 level. It remains to be seen whether this 'risk on' approach will last through the US trading session

Theoretically, I'm in a position to take new trades as my A/J trade is now risk free. BUT...I'm rather tired with renovations here so I will not add to any trades today.

The new signals were:

LONG: E/J, A/U & G/J

SHORT: USD/CAD, GBP/AUD & USD/SGD

Monday 28/11/11 (8pm)

There have not been any more TS signals at this stage.

I am Long on the A/J which is currently up about 30 pips. I got stopped out at break-even on my long NZD/USD live trade. Given that both of these trades were counter trend and, also, that the USDX had not yet closed below 79 (a point that I said I'd wait for before shorting the USD!), I moved my stops to b/e on these trades quite early. I still struggle with trade management...I'm not afraid to admit this!

Anyway, even if there were more TS signals I would wait until my A/J had locked in more profit before taking any further trades.

I'm not able to trade further, or do much chart watching, until tomorrow. We are in the middle of some renovations here so limited internet and time for me at the moment. I'm off now to try and find the modem amongst all of the displaced furniture!

Monday 28/11/11 (1pm)

The market sentiment seems to have changed, at least during the Asian session. There seems to be a 'risk on' approach, that being short USD favoured.

I have had 2 signals so far after my 1pm candle close: LONG on the A/J and NZD/USD. I do expect more signals to fire if this sentiment remains.

These 2 pairs are fairly positively correlated though. By this I mean they both tend to track a similar path much of the time. You can check for correlation of FX pairs at the free site: http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

I did mention in a post over the w/e that e-mail alerts are not sent after an initial thread is posted. So, if you do want to read about further events during my trading week you will need to check back in manually for yourself later on.

Indices for week 28/11/11

USDX

Monthly: Trend still down. The current candle is bullish though and forming an engulfing candle pattern. The candle has a week to go before it closes. Price has currently broken out and up from within the symmetrical triangle that had contained price since last year!

Weekly: Trend flat. Last week’s candle was a large bullish candle.

Daily: Trend flat/up. Price was fairly flat for the first two days of the week but then turned quite bullish for the final 3 days. Price actually broke out and up on Friday through the top bear trend line of the symmetrical triangle. You can see from the daily chart that price is forming a double top up near the 80 level with a peak from back in early October this year.

4hr: Trend up. The general trend has been up for most of the last 2 weeks. NB: The black vertical dotted lines on the 4 hr chart separate one week from the next. Price finished the week up and just below the 80 level. This 80 level is most significant as it is a former strong level of S/R and a strong psychological level. Price is currently sandwiched just below this 80 level and the R3 daily pivot and just above the R2 daily pivot, weekly 200 EMA, R2 weekly pivot, R1 monthly pivot and the previous trend line. Sort of, one might say, between a rock and a hard place!

Thoughts: Fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price movement on the indices. The USDX is approaching a hugely significant resistance area in the 80 level. Given that price has broken out and up from a symmetrical triangle one might be correct in identifying this as a bullish sign and, thus, the signal for further ‘up’ movement. The slightest whiff of any good news out of the Euro zone though, or anywhere for that matter, could be a trigger to turn price down at this significant 80 level. So, I think a lot of caution is needed with picking trend direction for this week ahead. This week could be a turning point. I’m not making trend predictions here at all, I’m simply identifying an important psychological and, thus, significant level for the USDX.

I will be watching closely, yet again, to see the impact of further news and whether this can move price above or below the 80 level. A break, close and hold above 80 would have me looking to Long the USD in pairs. A break, close and hold below 79, the current daily pivot, would see me looking to short the USD in pairs.

NB: December is often a period where there is a rally in stocks. This would need the USDX to fall to support such a rally.

EURX

Monthly: Trend down. The newish candle for this month is forming a bearish engulfing candle. Price action is still being held within the larger symmetrical wedge pattern but has broken the bottom trend line of the smaller triangle pattern.

Weekly: Trend down. The last 4 weeks have been bearish.

Daily: Trend flat/down. Price was supported above the 105.5 level for much of the last few weeks but broke down through this level, and the through the bottom trend line of the symmetrical triangle, on Friday. It is worth noting that price is currently only 90 pips above the other, larger, symmetrical triangle bottom trend line. This triangle pattern dates back to mid last year.

4 hr: Trend down. Price was bearish for most of last week. Price has re-tested the bottom trend line of the triangle but failed to break up through it again. Price finished at the psychological 105 level which is below the trend line, weekly S1 and daily pivot but above the daily S2 pivot.

Thoughts: A break back up, close and hold above 105, and the previous trend line, would have me looking for further reasons to long the EUR in pairs. A break, close and hold below 104, and the other lower trend line, would see me looking to short the EUR in pairs.

Email updates

The e-mail update system on this free blog site doesn't seem to be working as effectively as I would like. You don't get something for nothing though!. The alerts seem to be issued some hours after my initial posting. Also, no alerts are issued when I 'update' an existing post. The only solution that I can see is for interested followers to simply 'log in', every now and then, to check for any updates. I do send out Tweets and 'Linked In' Forex group updates so, these are alternative ways to keep informed as well.

My general plan for posting is as follows:

• I tend to send out Indices Reviews over the weekend referred to as 'Indices for the Week'.
• I start a single post thread called 'Trading Week' during the trading week once there are signals or events to discuss. I update this thread/post when signals are observed after inspecting my 4 hr candle close. For me, my MT4 charts are set GMT + 2. My 4 hr charts update here in Sydney, Australia at 5pm, 9pm, 1am, 5am, 9am, 1pm.
• Other posts are put up if and when there is a need or trading point of interest.

Please remember though that this TS blog is simply an account of my FX trading journey and I am not issuing any trading suggestions or advice. I am still developing the most effective risk and trade management techniques that are suitable to my preferred trading style. This is AS critical as any 'signal service' or trade entry identity system.

Trading week 21/11/11

Thursday 24/11/11 (7pm)

My short E/U was eventually stopped out for 120 pips. So, the final profit for this week is 220 pips!

Markets will be a bit thin for the rest of the week due to Thanksgiving and, as I have already said, I will not be taking anymore trades this week. I have limited internet for the next few days as well so I may not update again until the weekend.

Thursday 24/11/11 (6am)

My E/U trade continues to fall, harvesting more pips. I've locked in another 120 pips on my second lot. The trade is currently up 140 pips though! My stop is in place and I'll leave it there for now. So, so far this week, 220 pips locked in!

The USDX and EURX have finally got some momentum. As I write, the USDX is trying to break up and out of the upper trend line on a symmetrical triangle. The EURX has broken the bottom trend line of the smaller symmetrical triangle pattern that it was trading within. (see charts).

My internet will be disrupted a bit over the next few days so there may not be as many updates. I will not be taking any further trades this week though anyway given that it is the Thanksgiving long week end and volumes are usually a bit lower. I will just be managing my current short E/U trade.

I have had other TS signals though: short E/J, long USD/SGD and, almost a signal on long USD/CHF but I won't take any further trades. These are pretty well all correlated trades anyway.

Wednesday 23/11/11 (9pm)

The short E/U struggled for a while but finally broke through the trend line. I locked in 90 pips and my stop is moved to b/e on the remainder. It's Thanksgiving w/e looming so I was keen to move to b/e as soon as possible.

A fantastic week for TradeSpotting. Just 2 trades but, so far, a total of 190 pips!

Wednesday 23/11/11 (5pm)

There has been poor data out of China today which has caused a sell off on the AUD and a bit of a 'risk off' reaction; seeing the USDX climb and the EURX fall, albeit only slightly. I have had a signal to short the E/U. BUT...price is still sitting just above a daily trend line and above the strong psychological level of 1.34 so...this trade might be a bit problematic. Time will tell.

Wednesday 23/11/11 (6am)

It has been a rather flat night as far as most FX pairs went. The indices are still trading sideways. The USDX is still around 78 and the EURX around 106. (see charts). You may get sick of me going on about this BUT analysis of these pairs keeps oneout of bad trades as much as it can then help get you into good trades.

I had been watching both the E/J and USD/CHF for breakouts last night. Both were heading for trend line breaks and, also, looked like they were lining up for TS signals. We did get the trend line break BUT there was no full and valid TS signal thus, I did not take these trades. On waking this morning I see that both of these pairs have simply traded sideways. Thus, my TS system helped to keep me out of potentially losing trades. (see chart of the Swissie below). TS works on identifying strong market momentum moves which were clearly absent on these pairs last night.

I will keep an eye on the pairs every 4 hr candle and write more when something develops. Please note that you may need to click on the chart images a few times to enlarge them.

Tuesday 22/11/11 (pm)

No new signals as of tonight. I thought some might kick in on this 9pm candle close. For example, a USD/CHF short looked like setting up and an E/J long. The USDX and EURX are still, at this stage, bouncing around. The USDX is still around 78 and the EURX at around 106. We need a clear move away from these levels to start new trends.

Tuesday 22/11/11 (6am)

The TS signals from last night delivered a bounty of pips! I only took the short A/U and it has now closed out for 100 pips, just narrowly missing my profit target of 150!

The short A/J would have made you 100 pips, the short G/U 80+, the short G/J 60+ and the long USD/CAD a possible 60+ as well. So, another fantastic record for the TradeSpotting system!

It was an interesting FX night though indeed. Often when one 'risk off' trade fires (that is long USD), they all do. This was not the case last night though. For example, the E/U, E/J and USD/CHF pairs pretty much just bumped around. This action reflects much of what the indices, USDX and EURX, did though. The USDX is still around the 78 level and the EURX around the 106 level. (see charts). The beauty of my TS system is that it detects these strong market momentum moves.

The big fall for the poor Aussie dollar seems to be connected to the big fall in gold overnight. These pairs are highly correlated.

Monday 21/11/11 (9pm)

I preferred the A/U short to the A/J short due to the ever possible intervention on Yen pairs by the BOJ.

I've locked in 40 pips on the A/U short and have moved my stop to b/e on the other parcel. I'm not overly confident that this trend will progress given the slow pace of the indices.

The 9pm candle close has given new signals to short the G/J, G/U and to long the USD/CAD. These trades are fairly correlated with the short A/U though. In other words, they are 'risk off' trades.

Monday 21/11/11 (1pm)

I've had a signal after my 1pm candle close to short the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. The A/U also coincides with a trend line break. I am cautious though as the indices are still stuck in their narrow ranges and haven't declared their directions for this week. Please check my post on the indices to see what I'm looking for this week.

Indices for week 21/11/11

USDX

Monthly: Trend down. The current candle is bullish but, almost an inside candle. Inside candles are viewed as indecision candles. No surprises there heh?! The candle has some time to go before it closes though. Price is currently contained within a symmetrical triangle.

Weekly: Trend down. Last week’s candle was bullish and engulfed the previous doji.

Daily: Trend flat. For the last 3 days price has bounced around the strong S/R and psychological level of 78. This has also been the daily pivot level. The last 2 candles were almost ‘hanging man’ candles which, in an uptrend, signify bearish reversal but can also simply mean indecision. The monthly R1, daily R3, weekly R2 pivots and a bear trend line are just 100 pips above the current price action.

4hr: Trend flat. Price finished the week at the 78 strong psychological level, just under the daily pivot.

Thoughts: We continue to see fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements thwarting technical analysis and rocking price action. This volatility continues to make it difficult to trade, from a technical perspective, on the longer time frames (4hr charts +). I showed last week how easy it was to trade TS from 30 min charts though so, this may be more suitable for some of you. Attention to risk and trade management continues to be paramount at all times but especially during volatile times like these.

THE USDX is proving to be a challenge to assess and evaluate this week as there are major hurdles to price just above and just below the current price of 78. At 79 there is: the monthly R1, daily R3, weekly R2 pivots and a bear trend line. At 77 there is: the monthly and weekly pivot and 4hr 200EMA. I will be watching, yet again, to see the impact of further news and whether this can move price above or below the 78 level. A break and close above 79 would have me looking to Long the USD in pairs. Be careful though as the 80 level is also a huge previous resistance area and a strong psychological level. A break and close below the 77 would see me looking to short the USD in pairs. I think it will really come down to whether people see this week coming as one for ‘risk on’ (short USD) or ‘risk off’ (long USD).

EURX

Monthly: Trend down. The newish candle for this month is also forming an inside candle. These are often viewed as indecision candles. Price action is still being held within the larger and smaller of 2 symmetrical wedge patterns.

Weekly: Trend down. Price is being held within the 2 symmetrical wedge patterns.

Daily: Trend flat/bearish. The 106.5 – 107.5 levels held price action on this index for much of the last few weeks. The 106-105.5 levels have held price for the last few days though as well as the bottom trend line of the smaller symmetrical wedge patterns. Price is fluctuating around the daily pivot in a similar way as the USDX has done.

4 hr: Trend flat. Price is bouncing along, just above the bottom wedge trend line and between 106 – 105.5.

Thoughts: I will be watching to see the impact of further news and whether a ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ approach dominates into next week’s trading. I will wait to see price if price moves out of the narrow trading range of 106-105.5 and whether it breaks down through the bottom symmetrical wedge trend lines. A break and close above 106 would have me looking for further reasons to long the EUR in pairs but, the 4 hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot are just above at 106.7 so any up-move might be hampered. A break, close and hold below the 105.5 and trend line would see me looking to short the EUR in pairs.

TradeSpotting on 30 min charts last night.

TS on 30 minute charts! (15/11/11)

Whilst there have been no clear and convincing TS signals on the 4 hr charts so far this week there were many signals on the shorter time frame 30 minute charts that could have been picked up by traders during the US / late London session last night. These examples and charts are shown below.

My simplified 30 minute template shows the Tokyo trading channel. This is a pair of blue rectangular boxes. The box on the left depicts the Asian trading session, the one on the right shows London Open and the un-shaded area represents the US session. You can see quite clearly from these charts how there were nice trending moves during the US session, especially compared to the Asian session. The Gold example is from the previous trading session.

I live in Sydney, Australia so I'm not in a position to catch these moves. Hopefully, some of you are! I also hope to be able to reveal the full TS template and system for my TradeSpotting system soon.

NB: You may need to click on the charts a few times to enlarge the view.

Examples of good trends found with TradeSpotting on 3o min charts:

E/U 100 pips

A/U 50 pips

A/J 70 pips

G/U 100 + pips

E/J 90 pips

Gold

Trading week 14/11/11

Friday 18/11/11 (7am)

Well, the indices have swapped the 'Hokey Pokey' for some 'Pole Dancing'! They are both dancing around the daily pivots.

I'm done trading for the week. I'm keeping my 262 pips safe!

Thursday 17/11/11 (6pm)

Price has continued to bounce around a bit today and the USDX is still at the 78 level whilst the EURX is at the 106 level.

I tightened my stop on the short G/U and was stopped out at 122 pips. All of my trades are now closed and I will not open any further trades this week.

My results thus:

Short G/U: 122

Long U/CAD: 50

Long U/CHF: 90

Total: 262 pips!

Thursday 17/11/11 (6am)

You put your right foot in,

You put your right foot out;

You put your right foot in,

And you shake it all about.

You do the Hokey-Pokey,

And you turn yourself around.

That's what it's all about!

Now, if you thought that was 'The Hokey Pokey', think again! It's actually now called the 'risk on- risk off' dance that the FX market is doing! Yesterday's Asian session was 'risk off' with the USD rising and the EUR falling. Last night's US session though was a turn around though with 'risk on'! (see charts below). The USDX is currently back at the 78 level and the EURX is back at the 106 area. Creatures of habit!

I'm glad I locked in early profit on my trades yesterday afternoon given that the trend reversed. I keep saying this but, long term trend trading is difficult at the moment. I believe you need to lock in profits early and, then, cross your fingers and hope!

My remaining USD/CHF and USD/CAD trades were stopped out. The swissie at about 50 and the loonie at b/e. My short GBP/USD is still going though.

I doubt I will enter any more trades this week as I want to preserve my healthy profit, currently around 240 pips!

Wednesday 16/11/11 (5pm)

There has been a return to risk off during the Asian session with the USDX pushing higher and the EURX moving lower which has helped my trades.

I have locked in 50+ pips on the Long USD/CAD and 90 pips on the Long USD/CHF. I also took 100 pips on a short GBP/USD that was a weak TS signal but a trend line break as well. I have the other half of all of these trades still running with stops moved to b/e. I'm out for the night so that is why I closed and locked in some profit on the swissie and the loonie.

Total pips locked in = 240!

Wednesday 16/11/11 ( 6am)

It was a thin and choppy session overnight. The 'risk off' start to the night. with rising USD and falling EUR. fluctuated somewhat amid various news reports. Some reassuring news about the new Italian Prime Minister and a bit of good data out of the USA created some positive sentiment which resulted in some return to 'risk on' appetite. The USDX bounced down from previous resistance at the 78 level and the EURX is returning to the saftey of the 106 level as I write. (see charts).

The USD/CHF trade is still up but the USD/CAD is retesting the break of the 4 hr triangle trend line. I'm going to keep the loonie trade open for the time being though whilst it trades above the monthly pivot.

Like I keep saying, longer term trend trading is currently at the whim and mercy of a constant stream of fundamental news announcement.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (9pm)

The USDX and EURX have continued the moves out of their narrow trading ranges. This is giving me confidence now to look for opportunities to Long USD and Short EUR.

The only decent signals I have received though are the Long USD/CHF from earlier (currently up 40 pips) and a long on the USD/CAD. This isn't called the 'loonie' for nothing though! The USD/CAD trade represent a bullish break out from symmetrical triangle though too so is even further support for a long position. This, being FX, is no guarantee though. I'm discounting signals that Long the JPY due to the ever potential chance of BOJ intervention.

There has just been some mixed EUR news so it will be interesting to see how the market interprets these.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (5.30pm)

The USDX and EURX indices are attempting to break out of their trading ranges as I write. I've had a 5pm candle close here but there are still no clear or convincing TS trend signals just now. (There was a weak signal to Long the USD/CHF). I think this must be reflecting lower than usual volume perhaps. There is a lot of 'red flag' data due out overnight and maybe traders are waiting to see the impact of these announcements. I will continue to be patient though and wait for set ups on the 4 hr charts. I have posted an analysis showing how 30 min charts and TS yielded a lot of potential pips overnight though.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (10am)

Not much has changed since earlier this morning. THE USDX is still lingering around the upper trading range area of 77.5 and the EURX around the the 106 area. I feel that something big is brewing; that either a big move up or down is just around the corner. I want confirmation by way of moves on these indices before I have confidence with further 4 hr trend trades. There were TS trend trades around overnight that could be picked up on the shorter time frame 30 min charts that US session traders could have caught. I'll write these up in a post shortly.

Tuesday 15/11/11 (6am)

There has only been one, rather weak, TS signal overnight and that came through on the E/J. I am reluctant to short the E/J, which is essentially going long on the JPY, due to potential further Bank of Japan intervention. The same logic applies to any Yen pair.

There were some moves overnight but volumes were apparently low which probably explains the lack of coherent TS signals. My TS system catches strong market momentum moves and these aren't around at the moment. The EURX did eventually break out and down from the 106.5 area. The last 2 x 4hr candles have been indecision candles though and it has only moved down to the next support level of 106. The USDX has risen up to the upper resistance level of its trading range of 77.5 and is struggling at this level to escape any further as I write. (see charts).

I have learnt patience and discipline over recent weeks so I will wait until there is clearer direction on the indices and full signals on my TS system before trading.

Monday 14/11/11 9pm

I've just had a 4 hr candle close on my charts. There are no clear trade signals just yet though. The sentiment has been 'risk off' so far since the Asian session opened. The USDX has been increasing but is still range bound between 77.5-76.6. The EURX has fallen but is being supported by the 106.5 level as I write. This could all change overnight though but there is little scheduled news so price could just drift on sideways. Time will tell.

Please check my earlier Indices post to see what I'm looking for before taking any trades this week.