Trading Week Analysis for 23/4/2012

Note: I have posted 2 reviews this weekend; My Indices Review and my Trading Week Analysis.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely. Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

The last few weeks have been difficult for trend trading off the 4 hr charts. Trend trades could be found on the shorter time frames though, which is ok if you are in the right time zone to catch the move. The USD started to break down last Friday generating a 'risk on' sentiment and, if this move continues, we could see the return of some good trend trading from the longer time frame charts. We need to watch carefully though as the USD could easily bounce back up from its current position and return a 'risk off' sentiment. 

NB: I won't get to my charts until a few hours after market open tomorrow.

PS: I have updated my April Stocks page.

E/U: Still trading within a descending wedge pattern. The 1.3 level proved to be strong support last week but A TS signal to go LONG was generated during the week. Price has broken above the 4hr 200 EMA but is approaching strong resistance up at the monthly pivot and bear trend line.

I am currently LONG on the E/U and up about 50 pips.

E/J: This pair is giving off mixed signals. A possible bearish 'Head and Shoulder' pattern looks like it could be forming on the daily chart. Yet, a very comfortable LONG trend and a LONG TS signal has been in play on the 4 hr chart for all of last week. Price has also just broken above the 4hr 200 EMA resistance level; a rather bullish sign.

I won’t chase this current 4 hr TS trade but I will look to LONG the E/J on any clear new TS signal if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains.

I won’t SHORT the E/J.

A/U: Much of this analysis is the same as for last week.

The daily chart STILL shows how this pair is forming an ascending wedge with the green trend line of the 4hr 200 EMA forming the upper trend line. This is also still within a larger symmetrical triangle as well.

I will look to SHORT the A/U on a clear TS signal and a break hold and close below the daily triangle trend line and weekly pivot but I will be wary with this pair!

I will look to LONG the A/U on a clear TS signal and a break, close and hold above the 4hr 200 EMA and if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains.  NB: I have received a new TS signal on the 4 hr chart to LONG this pair but I will wait for it to close above the 4 hr 200 EMA, if it can.

A/J: This pair is still quite messy at the moment.

I will look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal, a break, close and hold above the 4hr 200 EMA and if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains.

G/U: I don’t usually trade this pair.

I passed on the triangle break out and TS signal to LONG this pair during the week.

I won’t chase this LONG trade though.

I would only look to SHORT the G/U on a clear new TS signal.

USD/SGD: This pair is back to trading within a symmetrical triangle.

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal (one is almost formed on the 4 hr chart), if ‘risk on’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bottom triangle trend line.

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns.   

  

Swissie: I’m not trading this pair but it, too, is still trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern.

If trading this pair: I would look to SHORT the Swissie on a break, close and hold below the bottom triangle trend line if ‘risk on’ remains. I had a TS signal to short on the 4 hr chart late last week.

U/J: I’m wary with this Yen pair too.  It has risen this week whilst the USD fell!  I would only trade this LONG on a TS signal if the USD keeps rallying and this pair broke out and up from the flag pattern.

Loonie: I don’t trade this pair but it is becoming more interesting as it trades closer into the apex of the weekly symmetrical triangle.

Silver: trading fairly flat and hanging around the weekly pivot.

Gold: trading fairly flat as well and hanging around the daily 200 EMA and weekly pivot.